Week 2 Player Props: Rushing Yards for James Conner from EV Insight

James ConnerRushing Yards

Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-110).

Pros

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 5th-most run-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 43.0% run rate.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.8 plays per game.
James Conner has picked up 61.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in football among RBs (86th percentile).
The New York Giants defense owns the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, yielding 5.32 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Cardinals are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cardinals to call the 2nd-least total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at run-game blocking.

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards