Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Bengals vs. Ravens
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 211.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Baltimore Ravens O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the 4th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Cons
- The Ravens have been the 7th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 55.1% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.22 seconds per play.
- Lamar Jackson has attempted a measly 27.9 passes per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 22nd percentile among QBs.
- Lamar Jackson has been among the worst passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging 192.0 yards per game while ranking in the 22nd percentile.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 5th-least yards in football (just 201.0 per game) versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
267
Passing Yards
267
Passing Yards
