Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Patriots vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 78.5 (-115) after it opened @ 82.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.2% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to accumulate 11.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 54.2 plays per game.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Tyreek Hill’s ability to pick up extra yardage has diminished this year, notching a mere 0.55 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.14 rate last year.
- The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (63%) to wideouts since the start of last season (63.0%).
- The New England Patriots pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.45 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
107
Receiving Yards
107
Receiving Yards
