Week 2 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Tony Pollard from EV Insight

Tony PollardRushing Yards

Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-120) after it opened @ 67.5 (-120).

Pros

The Cowboys are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-most run-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 41.0% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Tony Pollard to garner 16.6 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Tony Pollard to be a much bigger part of his team’s run game this week (58.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (42.3% in games he has played).
Tony Pollard has averaged 59.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the league among running backs (84th percentile).

Cons

The Dallas Cowboys will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The New York Jets defense has produced the 6th-best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, allowing just 4.28 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
82
Rushing Yards