WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Brock PurdyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Rams vs. 49ers
Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 233.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 233.5 (-114) after it opened @ 232.5 (-114).
Pros
- The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which should result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week’s game.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Brock Purdy has been among the most accurate QBs in the NFL since the start of last season with an impressive 66.8% Completion%, ranking in the 80th percentile.
- Brock Purdy has been among the most efficient passers in football since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 7.94 yards-per-target while grading out in the 87th percentile.
Cons
- The 49ers are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 8th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Brock Purdy to attempt 32.2 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 7th-least of all quarterbacks.
- Brock Purdy has been among the worst passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging 158.0 yards per game while grading out in the 14th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
254
Passing Yards
254
Passing Yards
