Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Buccaneers vs. Bears
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-145/+106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-145) after it opened @ 43.5 (-119).
Pros
- Opposing QBs have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
- D.J. Moore has run a route on 97.2% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
- THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to accumulate 6.8 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
- D.J. Moore has totaled a monstrous 86.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among WRs.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 48.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging just 53.6 plays per game.
- D.J. Moore has been among the most unreliable receivers in football, catching a measly 58.7% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 13th percentile among wideouts
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (63%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (63.0%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards
49
Receiving Yards
