Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Rams vs. 49ers
Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 68.5 (-114).
Pros
- The 49ers are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 46.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to garner 15.6 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
- Christian McCaffrey has received 59.7% of his team’s rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
- Christian McCaffrey has picked up 74.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the NFL among running backs (96th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which should result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week’s game.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards
67
Rushing Yards
