Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Bengals vs. Ravens
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to call the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to earn 14.7 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
- Joe Mixon has earned 68.7% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
- Joe Mixon has grinded out 61.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the league among running backs (86th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 34.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
- Joe Mixon has been among the bottom running backs in football at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.73 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 23rd percentile.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 92 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
