MLB Best Bets for Wednesday (8/4)

Boy does it feel good to finally get a couple of wins under our belt again. It certainly wasn’t for the faint of heart, but Philadelphia cashed the F5 Monday, beating Washington 1-0 by scratching away a run in the top of the fifth. Their bullpen, in typical Philadelphia fashion, promptly gave up the lead and were down 3-2 in the top of the ninth, but the Phils came roaring back with 5 run to cash the full-game moneyline, ultimately winning 7-5.

It was a roller coaster of emotions, but I’m never one to complain about a win. We have another Wednesday getaway day with a few games to fill the afternoon lull, with Minnesota and Cincinnati kicking the day off while San Francisco and Arizona wrap up the slate on the west coast. With 15 games on tap, there’s sure to be plenty of value hiding on Wednesday’s board so let’s jump into the matchup that stands out the most. 

Cleveland Guardians @ Toronto Blue Jays

Guardians +183, Blue Jays -204, William Hill Sportsbook

Cleveland and Toronto will meet for the third game in their current four-game series. After splitting the first two games, Cleveland will trot out J.C. Mejia to the mound while Toronto will counter with southpaw Steven Matz.

It’s no secret at this point in the season that Cleveland is one of the weaker offenses in the majors. On the year, their team wOBA sits at .301 and their wRC+ at 88, both firmly cementing Cleveland in the bottom-10 offenses. What these stats don’t show you is that they’ve actually been one of the unluckier teams in the league. Their .271 BABIP isn’t ridiculously low in isolation, but it is the third-lowest out of all 30 major league teams, while their HR/FB ratio is sitting at a clean 14% ranked 15th. Even with their low wOBA and wRC+, Cleveland has surprisingly been putting up good Statcast numbers throughout the year. Their barrel rate (8.3%) and hard hit rate (39.7%) are both just barely outside of the top-10 and their average exit velocity (89.3) ranks ninth on the year. As of late, it seems like the regression monster has started to help them out as Cleveland has put up better marks in virtually every stat over the last seven days. They’ve jumped to the top-five in both average exit velocity (90.7) and barrel rate (10.3%), which has finally had an impact on their wOBA, boosting that within the top-10 to .338. Cleveland has had a bad rep all year for being a terrible offensive team, but despite their bad numbers, they’ve barreled up opposing pitchers all year long and it looks like they’re finally getting the results they’ve been looking for.

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Cleveland starter J.C. Mejia has had a brutal welcome to the major leagues. As a starter this year, which happens to be his last 10 games, he’s gone 40 innings and allowed 47 hits, 38 earned runs, 10 homers and 18 walks, resulting in a putrid .391 opposing wOBA, 8.55 ERA and 6.19 FIP. His home/road splits are fairly consistent, albeit still terrible, allowing opposing hitters to torch him for a .374 wOBA and a 5.50 FIP away from Progressive Field. Typically, he’s been getting off to fairly rough starts allowing a .369 wOBA/4.93 FIP the first time through the order, which then balloons to .402/6.68 the second time through, and finally .432/8.83 if he makes it through the lineup a third time. No matter which way you spin it, Mejia has been disastrous this season and I don’t see that stopping here.

Offensively, Toronto may be the scariest team in the majors. Over the season so far, they’ve had the hardest average exit velocity (90.1), second-highest barrel rate (9.9%), fourth-highest hard hit rate (41.5%), and the highest .338 team wOBA in the majors. Since returning to Toronto and over the past week, they’ve put their foot on the gas even more, ranking within the top three in terms of average exit velocity (90.8), launch angle (16.4), barrel% (11.9), and hard hit% (42.6%), leaving them with the fourth-highest team wOBA sitting at .355. With George Springer, Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Teoscar Hernández, their right-handed bats resemble a fantasy team and have had the second-highest .352 wOBA and 123 wRC+ facing right-handed pitching, barely trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers. Even for the best starting pitchers in the league, Toronto is one of the last lineups you’d want to face so I can’t even imagine how bad this could be for Mejia. 

Toronto starter Steven Matz has had a pretty ho-hum year thus far. Through 18 starts, he’s 8-6 with a 4.58 ERA and a 4.01 FIP, marks that don’t necessarily scream dominance or are a cause for concern. Over his last seven starts though, the wheels do appear to be failing off a little bit, as he’s just 2-4 pitching 30.2 innings while allowing 39 hits, 18 earned runs, and six homers, giving him a 5.28 ERA and 5.02 FIP during that span. On the year, his xWOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel rate and K% all rank in the bottom 50% of the majors while his hard hit rate just barely ranks within the top half of the league. Righties have given him a fair amount of trouble being able to touch him up for a .340 wOBA and a 4.39 FIP, particularly of note with Cleveland expecting to start nine batters from the right side. Matz once had a lot of promise as a young starter in New York, but he’s been extremely mundane for Toronto in 2021.

The pick

Runs, runs, and more runs. I’m taking a good hard look at the total in this one. Cleveland’s bats are starting to come alive, while Toronto’s seem to have somehow gotten even hotter lately. On the flip side, Mejia hasn’t shown any ability whatsoever to limit runs and Matz is on a bit of a cold streak himself. I’m looking for some fireworks in Toronto in this one with maybe a couple homer props too? F5 o5.5 -105 and FG o9.5 -110, both on DraftKings Sportsbook.