The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (7/7)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek.

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles

Blue Jays (-188), Orioles (+158)
Total: 10.5 runs
Hyun Jin Ryu (L) vs. Matt Harvey (R)

Three things to know

• Matt Harvey has been awful this season, but the Orioles don’t have many great options. He has allowed 1.75 HR/9 this season.
• Camden Yards is a hitter-friendly environment. It ranks seventh-best in park factor and leads the league in home run factor.
• Toronto has been cookin’ at the dish all year, and in the last two weeks, rank fourth in wRC+ (124) with a .191 ISO mark.

Best bets: Slam this puppy on the Jays. They may cover the over by themselves, but a F3/F5 bet is juicy as hell.

Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs

Phillies (-134), Cubs (+114)
Total: 7.5 runs
Zack Wheeler (R) vs. Alec Mills (R)

Three things to know

• Folks aren’t talking much about him, but Zack Wheeler has been dominant with a 31.3% strikeout rate and 49.3% ground-ball rate this year.
• The Cubs pitching is keeping them in the NL Central – the offense ranks 25th in wRC+ (89) the last two weeks with a silly 30.3% strikeout rate.
• Keep an eye out on the weather – there appears to be a hefty wind (11 MPH) blowing in today.

Best bets: I’d expect Wheeler to dominate, so any K prop at 7.5-8.5 is a slam bet. 

Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros

Athletics (+136), Astros (-162)
Total: 8.5 runs
Sean Manaea (L) vs. Luis García (R)

Three things to know

• Yordan Alvarez had been out for a bit, following the birth of his son, but crushed two long home runs Tuesday.
• People know about the Astros offensive prowess (leading the league in most categories), but the A’s are a top five offense as well.
• Sean Manaea, after some early season struggles, has really turned a corner and now owns a 25.1% strikeout rate.

Best bets: This turned into an offensive show, and I would expect the same again here. Play the OVER.

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks

Rockies (-106), Diamondbacks (-110)
Total: 9.5 runs
Antonio Senzatela (R) vs. Humberto Castellanos (R)

Three things to know

• After five early runs, Tuesday’s game appeared to be cruising for the over, but the pitching prevailed.
• With two very poor arms, the opposite looks to be the case today. Antonio Senzatela has recorded only a 15.5% strikeout rate this year.
• This is likely a bullpen game for the D-Backs. Humberto Castellanos has worked primarily in relief, and his 12.2% walk rate is ugly.

Best bets: The OVER. While these offenses are bad, these pitchers might be even worse.

St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants

Cardinals (+160), Giants (-190)
Total: 8.5 runs
Johan Oviedo (R) vs. Alex Wood (L)

Three things to know

• The Cardinals have almost no starting pitching – Johan Oviedo has flashed some bright spots, but his spotty command will put in a bad spot.
• The Cardinals have one thing going for them – they are putting the ball in play a lot, recording a 17.0% strikeout rate in the last two weeks.
• Alex Wood is another reclamation project that’s been great for the Giants – he’s logged a 25.5% strikeout rate this season.

Best bets: A same-game parlay here makes too much sense. Oviedo has struggled, and Wood has been excellent. 

New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners

Yankees (-118), Mariners (+100)
Total: 8.0 runs
Domingo Germán (R) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (L)

Three things to know

• Over the last two weeks, the Yankees rank sixth with a wRC+ mark of 119. A 13.5% walk rate shows their plate discipline could portend for big things.
• With Luke Voit returning to the lineup, this is a challenging group too pitch to. Tuesday against Justus Sheffield, they slammed two home runs and scored 12 times.
• If there’s one arm that could tame the Yanks, it could be Kikuchi. His 25.4% strikeout rate would be the best of his career.

Best bets: I like the OVER, and big time. The Yanks are cooking lately, and German has been off his game.

Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres

Nationals (+150), Padres (-178)
Total: 8.5 runs
Patrick Corbin (L) vs. Chris Paddack (R)

Three things to know

• Patrick Corbin stinks. He’s allowing gobs of home runs this season (1.75 HR/9), and he cannot get righties out (.511 slugging percentage).
• The banged up Nats are starting Alcides Escobar, and in the leadoff spot. Woof.
• Throwing a new curve, Paddack has logged a 24.4% strikeout rate this season, and his command remains as impeccable as ever (5.5% walk rate).

Best bets: Our second same-game parlay. I just do not trust Corbin to be decent. Mix in a Fernando Tatis Jr. home run prop if you like fun.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

Find the Best MLB Prop Bets

Find the best prices for your favorite props each day here with the FTN Prop Shop.

Sports Betting Tools

Looking for free betting tools to help you win? Try the FTN Parlay Calculator and FTN Prop Shop.