Tipico One-Play Payday (April 26)

Welcome to a Monday edition of One-Play Payday. If you aren’t familiar with “One-Play Payday,” we provide you with one play, whether it be a spread, total or moneyline, that stands out as a rock-solid play on Tipico Sportsbook.

Tipico Sportsbook lines

We have a mega 11-game Monday slate to start the week, here are all the lines on Tipico Sportsbook.

San Antonio Spurs -3.5 (-160) @ Washington Wizards (+130), 227.5
Atlanta Hawks -3.5 (-160) @ Detroit Pistons (+130), 216.5
Los Angeles Lakers -10.5 (-700) @ Orlando Magic (+470), 209.5
Oklahoma City Thunder (+600) @ Philadelphia 76ers -11.5 (-1000), 218.5
Cleveland Cavaliers (+450) @ Toronto Raptors -10.5 (-650), 215.5
Phoenix Suns -1.5 (-130) @ New York Knicks (+105), 214.5
Chicago Bulls (+200) @ Miami Heat -5.5 (-250), 204.5
Los Angeles Clippers -1.5 (-125) @ New Orleans Pelicans (+100), 228.5
Utah Jazz -8.5 (-500) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (+370), 227.5
Memphis Grizzlies (+145) @ Denver Nuggets -4.5 (-180), 228.5
Dallas Mavericks -5.5 (-250) @ Sacramento Kings (+200), 223.5

Today's Tipico Sportsbook picks

For today’s Tipico One-Play Payday, I am looking to parlay five ML favorites:

Los Angeles Lakers -700
Philadelphia 76ers -1000
Utah Jazz -500
Miami Heat -250
Toronto Raptors -650

At this stage of the NBA season, health and importance of winning are crucial when targeting ML parlays as there are teams quite frankly with incentive to lose facing teams with incentives to win.

The Lakers face arguably the worst team in the NBA in the Orlando Magic with Anthony Davis expected to play in the high 20s in minutes. 25+ minutes of Anthony Davis alongside the rest of the non-LeBron James Lakers should be enough with an implied probability of 87.50%. I have the Lakers winning this game 95% of the time, so while -700 feels like heavy juice, there is some value in that line. Orlando has lost five straight games and have lost by over 29 points in their last two games.

The Sixers are arguably facing the second-worst team in the NBA in the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Sixers' incentive to win is to overtake the Brooklyn Nets to be the first overall seed in the East. Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris have returned to the lineup and Ben Simmons has been upgraded to questionable. There is just such a massive talent difference between these two teams that they feel like a free square to boost the odds in this parlay.

In their last game, the Jazz actually lost to the Timberwolves where they scored just 56 points in the last three quarters of the game after scoring 40 in the first quarter. Utah also managed to turn the ball over 20 times while still keeping the T-Wolves to just 101 points. -500 suggests an 83.33% implied probability of winning, and this feels like an overreaction coming off of a loss against this same team. Had Utah won, they would be around -750. Look for the Jazz to bounce back against a bad team following a bad loss.

A case can be made that the Bulls may have more incentive to win over the Miami Heat, as they look to claw their way into the pay-in round in the East. I disagree, as the Heat are tied with the Celtics for the sixth seed in the East. For those who forgot, the play-in tournament consists of the seventh, eighth, ninth and tenth seeds of the conference. Chicago has played okay since Zach LaVine went out, but there is still a talent gap between the two teams with a huge incentive to win for the better team. Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn are questionable.

Lastly, the Raptors are tied with the Bulls for the 11th seed in the East and face a Cavaliers team on the second night of a back-to-back. This is a chance for Toronto to start gaining ground for their play-in seeding, as they face a bottom three team in Cleveland. Toronto has been an inconsistent team to target as favorites this year, but considering the back-to-back and the incentive to win, I believe they should be around -750 instead of -650, giving us good value.

Today’s Tipico OnePlay Payday is a five-team ML parlay for 1u: