Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The English Premier League has a four-game slate scheduled for Saturday. For this and every slate, I’ll be offering up some of my top betting picks for that day’s games, hopefully providing significant intel and probabilities into the major slates.
With the COVID-19 pandemic, we are seeing an influx of games on an odd schedule. My goal is to provide you with understanding, probabilities and what could happen with all games on major slates that have three or four matches per day. The format for each game breakdown will be as followed:
- Matchup overview
- Predicted team expected goals based on matchup
- Poisson model predicted score probability
- Value plays based on Poisson model and current betting Lines
- My prediction
- Additional value bets (if any)
West Ham vs. Norwich
7:30 a.m. ET Saturday, July 11
The inevitable is upon us, and Norwich are posed to be relegated heading into the next season for the Championship. You will see a mixture of players entirely checked out, while some may be a bit more motivated to show their worth to stay in the league. You truly have seen some fight in them. They have held a higher xG in their last two matches against Watford and Brighton. Additionally, they had shown some strong fight against a tough Everton team with an xG of 0.4-0.9 in a 0-1 loss to Everton. If home matches had fans, it may be a little better opportunity for Norwich to grab some points in this match.
This is a pretty important game for West Ham. They currently still have an 11% chance at relegation, sitting at 16th in the Premier League table with 31 points. This will be their opportunity to climb back into safety for another season in the Premier League. They were extremely unlucky in their last match against Burnley, losing 1-0. Even with this score, they had a higher xG than Burnley at 1.9-1.0. They game should have at least been a draw, if not a win for West Ham.
I believe you will see West Ham come out in full force to pull out a win against a Norwich team that is already heading down to relegation. Seems like one that can be bookmarked as a win for Saturday.
Score prediction: West Ham 2-0 Norwich (DraftKings Sportsbook +850)
Betting pick: West Ham ML (DraftKings Sportsbook +102)
Newcastle vs. Watford
7:30 a.m. ET Saturday, July 11
A betting line that looks extremely surprising on paper, Watford is currently an extreme favorite in the matchup at -124. Without the proper context, most people would be slamming the Newcastle ML. However, there is an importance factor that must be incorporated in this matchup, similar to the West Ham game above. Watford is currently sitting 17th in the table and this is their chance to grasp on to the safety rope from relegation. They currently sit with a 15% chance of relegation and their odds go down significantly should they win this matchup. Additionally, on a calculated xG model, they are projected to outscore Newcastle by 0.58 xG.
Newcastle have ended up looking dire since returning back to action. An exclamation point was put to that with a 5-0 beatdown from Manchester City. Even in their 4-1 victory over Bournemouth back on 07/01, they still only had a true xG differential of 1.4-1.2. Newcastle is already safe and have nothing to play for. However, this really isn’t a match that I’m wanting to touch on a betting front, with that type of storyline embedded into the game.
Score prediction: Watford 2-1 Newcastle (DraftKings Sportsbook +700)
Betting pick: Pass
Burnley @ Liverpool
10 a.m. ET Saturday, July 11
Burnley continue being one of the most dreadful teams to watch in the Premier League. Week after week they continue to have a lower xG than their opposition and continue to either win or draw. In fact, they have picked up 10 points in their last four matches, while only having a higher xG in one of the four matches. Their luck may be drying up this upcoming Saturday, and I fully expect it to. This Liverpool team is not one who will leave expected goals and opportunities on the table, and they will take advantage in this matchup.
Liverpool may have already locked up their title, but they don’t look to be slowing down. My theory is that plenty of the players still have financial performance incentives embedded in their contracts, so we can continue to see this team play at an extremely high level. It’s so fun watching this team play, as they continue to have prolific offensive efficiency. Unless Burnley play extremely compact, hoof one ball up the field, and score on their one opportunity, I think Liverpool will end up running away with this one.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Burnley (DraftKings Sportsbook +575)
Betting pick: Moneyline pick: Liverpool (DraftKings Sportsbook -400)
Chelsea vs. Sheffield United
12:30 p.m. ET Saturday, July 11
Sheffield United has been another painful team to watch. Since rejoining back in early June, they have averaged 0.76 xG per matchup. That’s just not going to get it done, especially when you’re playing one of the more prolific attacking teams in the EPL. Before leaving for the break, Sheffield United were one of the most consistent, organized team in the Premier League. While they currently sit 8th in the league table, it is very easy to see them sliding into the bottom half of the table to finish the season.
Chelsea, on the other hand, have really seemed to find their ideal lineup and formation. They have been prolific offensively, averaging 2.16 xG per game. That is in the top-four in the premier league currently. Their only issue has been not always being organized well defensively. You have seen defensive lapses against teams like West Ham and even Aston Villa. However, that is not where Sheffield United’s strength lie. It will be difficult to see any other outcome looking at matchups, than Chelsea winning this quite handily.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Sheffield (DraftKings Sportsbook +700)
Betting pick: Moneyline Pick: Chelsea (DraftKings Sportsbook -167)
Manchester City vs. Brighton
3:15 p.m. ET Saturday, July 11
Manchester City is heating up at the right time before the Champions League round of 16 takes place in a month. They have looked like an unstoppable team since their loss to Chelsea back on June 25. I know they had a loss against Southampton, but they absolutely dominated that game 2.8-0.8 xG. That score line had a 4.1% chance of happening, and you can ensure an outcome like that will continue to have low probabilistic chances in future games like that. When you see a team averaging 3.0 xG per game and creating the most xG plus xA per game, it’s hard to not bet with them. Especially in a game that they are so heavily favored.
Brighton has been a team that seems to play to their competition. Although they have lost two out of their last three matches, they have really held their own with the likes of Manchester United (0.5-0.8 xG difference) and Liverpool (2.0-2.5 xG difference). You may be hard pressed to find a team that has been sneakily as bad as Brighton has been this season, though. If they didn’t have their early-season success, they would be in that relegation scrap along with Watford and West Ham. However, they have found themselves in safety, and really don’t have much to play for. I think Manchester City will really wipe the floor with them in this matchup.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-0 Brighton (DraftKings Sportsbook +750)
Betting pick: Moneyline pick: Manchester City (DraftKings Sportsbook -345)
Parlay pick: ML: Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool (DraftKings Sportsbook +200)
