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Kenneth Le
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Baltimore Ravens and Jacksonville Jaguars game for Week 15.
Week 15 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars
8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC (announcers: Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth)
BAL -3.5, O/U 43.5
Pace: BAL: 26.3 sec/snap (11th), JAC: 27.4 sec/snap (20th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Over his last two starts in the absence of Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely has run a route on 87% of dropbacks.
- In three games without Andrews this year, Zay Flowers is averaging 9.3 targets and 19.6 PPR points per game.
- Flowers ranks third among all wide receivers with 115 snaps in pre-snap motion.
- Travis Etienne has been hit in the backfield on 24.2% of his carries this season.
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson was sensational last week, throwing for 316 yards and three touchdowns and adding 70 rushing yards. Baltimore, who usually runs the ball as much as anyone, simply put the ball in Jackson’s hands as much as possible and he delivered. He attempted a season-high 43 passes and now gets a great matchup against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the QB6, QB20, QB3, QB3 and QB9 in fantasy since Week 10. During that same span, opposing quarterbacks are completing over 70% of their passes against the Jaguars.
Running Back
It is tough to trust anyone from this backfield as anything more than a desperation flex play right now. If you are relying on Gus Edwards, you are hoping for a touchdown, which is certainly possible considering he has 10 on the season and ranks sixth in the league with 13 carries inside the 5-yard line. However, since Week 9, Edwards has played just 33% of the snaps, handled 34% of the rushing attempts and is averaging just 9.2 touches per game. Week 9 was the point where Baltimore started to give Keaton Mitchell more opportunities — since then, the rookie has been on the field for 31% of the snaps, has handled 29% of the attempts and is averaging 8.8 touches per game. In the games Edwards has failed to score a touchdown this season, he is averaging just 4.9 PPR points per game, so there’s truly no floor here. Mitchell, meanwhile, likely has to break a long run to get the job done for you. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game this season (92.2).
Wide Receiver
Zay Flowers caught 6-of-10 targets for 60 yards and a touchdown last week, adding a two-point conversion. He has now played in three games with Mark Andrews sidelined this season, and in those contests, Flowers is averaging 9.3 targets and 19.6 PPR points per game. He also has a target share right around 28% in those games, as the rookie continues to be the focal point of Baltimore’s passing attack. The Ravens continue to move him all over the field, as his 115 snaps in pre-snap motion are the fourth-most among all wide receivers, which helps give him free releases. He’s a low-end WR2 in this favorable spot. Odell Beckham, meanwhile, also saw 10 targets last week, as he continues to see plenty of looks when he’s on the field. Beckham has been targeted on 23% of his routes this season, but that rate is closer to 25% with Andrews off the field. For whatever reason, the veteran’s snaps remain limited, as there has been just one game all year long where he’s ran a route on more than 66% of dropbacks.
Tight End
Over his last two starts in the absence of Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely has run a route on 87% of dropbacks. Likely has seen 13 targets during that span, catching nine of them for 123 yards and a touchdown. Consider him on the TE1 radar against a Jacksonville defense that is coughing up 55 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends on the year.
Quarterback
Despite looking like he would miss extended time, Trevor Lawrence somehow played through a high-ankle sprain last week. He threw the ball 50 times against Cleveland, completing 28 passes for 257 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. Between the ankle, the loss of Christian Kirk and the matchup, Lawrence is shaping up as a QB2 this week. The Ravens are allowing the league’s lowest passing touchdown rate (2.7%), as well as the fourth-lowest completion rate (60.2%) and lowest yards per pass attempt (5.6).
Running Back
Travis Etienne’s volume has come down a little bit, though he’s still averaging a solid 17 touches per game since Week 10. For the season, Etienne has seen either a carry or a target on 33.5% of his snaps, the ninth-highest rate in football. The efficiency hasn’t been great, as Etienne’s explosive rush rate is down by about three percent this season, while his avoided tackle rate is down by four percent. He’s also been hit in the backfield on 24.2% of his carries but the volume has helped mask a lot of the inefficiency. Baltimore is more vulnerable against the run than the pass, as we saw with Kyren Williams last week. The Rams ran the football on their first nine plays against Baltimore. Etienne remains a top-10 fantasy running back here.
Wide Receiver
Calvin Ridley turned 13 targets into just four catches for 53 yards last week. He’s been really hit or miss for most of the season but should be able to find 8-10 targets pretty easily with Christian Kirk sidelined. Ridley moved into the slot a bit more last week, lining up there 28% of the time, up from his season average of 17.1%. Zay Jones, meanwhile, moved inside about 20% of the time, catching just five of his 14 targets. Jones has seen 25% of the targets over the last two weeks and we have seen him be Lawrence’s favorite target in the red zone before. Of course, that was mostly last year before Ridley’s arrival. This season, Ridley has accounted for 45% of Jacksonville’s targets inside the 10-yard line, the third-highest rate in the league. Ridley is a viable WR3, while Jones is a WR4 with top-30 upside.
Tight End
Finally, you are starting Evan Engram, who is finally scoring touchdowns. After ending his touchdown drought back in Week 12, Engram went crazy this past weekend, catching 11-of-12 targets for 95 yards and two more touchdowns. No tight end in football has run more routes than Engram this season, who is also sporting a healthy 23% target share (second among tight ends) and 22% target per route run rate (fifth).
