Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
Twenty-four hours after a nine-game NBA slate where we saw the New York Knicks beat the brakes off of the Millwaukee Bucks and the Cleveland Cavaliers blow out the Boston Celtics, we have a five-game slate that comes with a handful of potential resting implications. While nothing has been confirmed yet, both the Brooklyn Nets and Los Angeles Lakers find themselves on the back-end of a back-to-back, meaning the potential for Kevin Durant and LeBron James to sit is there.
With a couple of games under our belt for just about every team (aside from Houston and Oklahoma City), the pace and defensive efficiency metrics listed are now current. With that being said, it’s important to take them with a bit more of a grain of salt than normal considering we are still less than a week into the season.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Detroit Pistons @ Atlanta Hawks (-9.5) – 225 total
Pace: DET (T20th), ATL (5th)
Defensive Efficiency: DET (17th), ATL (5th)
The Pistons come into this game rather shorthanded, as both Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin have been ruled out while Jahlil Okafor is listed as questionable. Based on the fact that he missed practice Sunday, he seems like he’s more on the wrong side of that questionable tag.
This opens up additional minutes and touches for all of Jerami Grant, Josh Jackson and even Sekou Doumbouya. Of the three, Grant possesses the highest floor/ceiling combination and is fresh off of a 28-point, 10-rebound double-double. Understanding his new ceiling in Detroit, he’s an excellent option at $5,900 on DraftKings. Jackson and Doumbouya have more volatility than Grant, but they help open your lineup up to pay for studs, making them valuable strictly based on minutes potential alone.
The absence of Derrick Rose should mean more volume for Jackson off the bench, but also more minutes for Killian Hayes and Delon Wright. Hayes has been disappointing this season and until he puts it all together, he’s not a must. Wright is interesting after playing 42 minutes on Saturday, as he could see an increased role with Rose sidelined. The only other Pistons player I have my eye on is Mason Plumlee. His $5,700 price tag may scare the masses off, but he’s quietly averaged a fantasy point per minute with a 23.9% assist rate and should see more usage and rebounding opportunities with Griffin and potentially Okafor out.
The Hawks have looked great to start the season and could potentially be missing Danilo Gallinari for the second consecutive game. In that case, we can expect the rotation to shake out close to how it did Saturday against Memphis.
John Collins feels too cheap at $7,600 on DraftKings assuming he can avoid foul trouble. Trae Young is also in that same underpriced boat after posting 1.76 fantasy points per minute and a 36.8% usage rate through the first two games. He’ll be low owned considering the other spend-up options, making him an elite tournament pivot.
De'Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Kevin Huerter are all worth a look if Gallinari sits. Hunter drew the start and saw 35 minutes, providing a stable floor for a cheap tag, while Huerter ate up most of the wing minutes off the bench. Bogdanovic has gotten off to a slow start but is still only $4,700 on DraftKings, shooting 10+ times per game with 17 total three-point attempts through two games. The ceiling is there for his price with the assumption that he’ll get it figured out at some point.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Brooklyn Nets (-7) – 235 total
Pace: MEM (3rd), BKN (12th)
Defensive Efficiency: MEM (27th), BKN (1st)
I alluded to the potential for rest in the intro paragraph, but with the Nets on the second leg of a back-to-back, there’s a high likelihood either Kyrie Irving or Kevin Durant sits. Durant feels like the more likely candidate and in this situation, it’s important to avoid overthinking. If one gets ruled out, play the other. Memphis has struggled out of the gate defensively and runs at a top-5 pace in the league, setting up for a great fantasy environment.
This would also make Caris LeVert an even better play than he already is, especially with the likelihood that Spencer Dinwiddie sits. While a move to the starting lineup could hamper his usage out of the gate, he still gets the bulk of the work with the second unit and if the game gets out of hand, he’ll stay on the court (11 total fourth-quarter minutes in first two blowouts of the season) while Irving/Durant sit. Should one of the stars sit, we could see Jeff Green and/or Landry Shamet work their way into relevance depending on the lineup rolled out, so that is something to keep tabs on. Joe Harris would also see an uptick in volume, although he maintains his value with them in the lineup as well since they generate so many open threes for him.
Because of how good Brooklyn has been this season, Memphis feels like a team better suited for GPPs. Ja Morant may be the top tournament option on the slate, as he’s attempted 48 shots through two games and has topped 38 points/rebounds/assists in both of those games.
Dillon Brooks ($3,700) is criminally underpriced on FanDuel for someone with a 25% usage rate, considering he’s already in play on DraftKings at almost $2,000 more. Grayson Allen and Kyle Anderson are also viable fill-ins, as Allen has been staying afloat as the starting shooting guard, and Anderson has shown more aggression on the glass, carrying an 18% rebounding rate into this game (2.8% less than Valanciunas).
Utah Jazz (-8) @ Oklahoma City Thunder – 220 total
Pace: UTA (16th), OKC (9th)
Defensive Efficiency: UTA (T12th), OKC (4th)
While it being a five-game slate will condense ownership, this is the game of the five that will likely carry the least amount of ownership and of my personal interest. The Jazz are a tough team to nail down based on their salaries and, in this case, blowout potential. A case can be made for Rudy Gobert in tournaments, as he’s averaging an absurd 1.56 fantasy points per minute and lines up well against a Thunder team sans Steven Adams.
Jordan Clarkson is the other Jazz player who sticks out, as he remains cheap across the industry, has the second-highest usage rate on the team among regular rotation players (27%) while carrying the second-highest production clip (1.27 fantasy points per minute), and would have the potential to be on the court in a blowout.
The Thunder side, surprisingly, have more pieces of interest. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expensive, but he’s shown his do-it-all nature already in the first game of the season and should continue to be relied upon early and often. Darius Bazley and Lu Dort are both in good spots considering their prices, as someone aside from Gilgeous-Alexander is going to have to score. Bazley posted 1.11 fantasy points per minute in his first game and should draw a ton of run at the four against Bojan Bogdanovic, an exploitable matchup. Dort is uber-cheap ($4,300 on DraftKings) and takes a ton of threes, which is a massive benefit considering DraftKings’ scoring system, while also playing heavy minutes (35 in the opener).
There’s merit to playing George Hill after his ultra-efficient outing last game, but considering the fact that the Thunder are trying to develop their young players, it’s hard to imagine him getting much more than the 24 minutes he saw last game.
Houston Rockets @ Denver Nuggets (-7.5) – 223.5 total
Pace: HOU (26th), DEN (28th)
Defensive Efficiency: HOU (22nd), DEN (29th)
Houston still has a problem, but DFS players do not (as long as they don’t overthink this). While James Harden will likely come in as the highest-owned player on the slate, it’s the most dangerous fade in the world. He had a near-40% usage rate with the shortened rotation and posted almost 1.9 fantasy points per minute en route to helping FTN’s own David Jones take home $100,000 on FanDuel on Saturday. Another dangerous fade from this game is Christian Wood, even with his price-bump. He held a 28.4% usage rate (1.23 FPPM) and an 18.8% rebounding rate and without DeMarcus Cousins, we should expect this production to continue.
Because of how short the Houston rotation is, it’s hard to find a play that isn’t viable in some form or fashion, but Danuel House, David Nwaba, Sterling Brown and Jae'Sean Tate are the value plays to target. House disappointed in the first game, but 38 minutes at sub-$5,000 is something to take advantage of. The minutes aren’t as safe for the latter three, but their prices also reflect that risk, making them viable values if needed.
While there is blowout potential in this game, Houston demonstrated its ability to keep it close in its last game against the Blazers. This puts the Nuggets squarely in consideration, starting with a sub-$10,000 Nikola Jokic. His main hindrance over the last two seasons has been playing time, but seeing over 38 minutes in both games thus far, that worry may be behind us. Given his 28.2% usage rate, 50% assist rate, 18.2% rebounding rate and 1.54 FPPM clip, he’s my favorite tournament play on the slate. Pairing him with Jamal Murray, who is finally at a playable price, makes sense given their correlation with the dribble hand-offs that they run.
Michael Porter Jr. is another tournament target, as he’s held a 22.4% usage rate so far. The minutes, however, are what hold him back from being a rock-solid cash gameplay. Will Barton is in the opposite boat, where he has steady-enough playing time to warrant consideration in cash, but the presence of Porter negates his ceiling for tournaments.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Lakers (-4) – 227.5 total
Pace: POR (27th), LAL (14th)
Defensive Efficiency: POR (30th), LAL (10th)
The last game of the evening presents us with another tricky hypothetical. This is the second leg of a back-to-back for the Lakers and seeing that Anthony Davis sat out on Sunday night, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that LeBron James sits on Monday. If that’s the case, Davis would obviously see the biggest boost. While it makes sense to want to lock in Davis with that hypothetical news, it’s different on this slate given the need for James Harden. With so much value, it’s not impossible to fit both, but my lean would still be Harden. This makes Davis an elite pivot.
In that scenario, Dennis Schroder would be the other Lakers piece to focus on. Schroder has already managed a 25.3% usage rate in the starting lineup alongside the two stars but would take on a heap of added ball-handling duties should James sit, considering how much point guard James plays. In this scenario, his price is far too cheap ($6,100 on DraftKings) for his ceiling, as he already has a 27.3% assist rate and 1.21 FPPM clip, both of which should balloon sans LeBron. Montrezl Harrell is coming off of a floor game and was priced up to $7,500 on DraftKings, making him an easy fade with John Collins and Rudy Gobert sandwiching him price-wise. The same can be said for Kyle Kuzma, who would benefit from James sitting, but not nearly as much as he does when Davis sits.
Talen Horton-Tucker would likely be a beneficiary of James sitting, making him an elite value in that case given his 1.19 fantasy-point-per-minute clip and scoring ceiling that we saw in the preseason.
If James is active, it’s wise to approach this Lakers team like any other slate. The production comes from the top with the offense running through Davis, making him the preferred option at an incrementally cheaper tag. Schroder would also still be a viable play, but his ceiling would be capped a bit.
The Blazers, on the other hand, are a rather cut-and-dry team to approach. You know the blunt of the usage is coming from the backcourt in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Lillard is another elite pivot off of the popular studs given his ceiling potential, but his price over $10,000 has me leaning towards Nikola Jokic or Trae Young if choosing a star pivot. McCollum is coming off of a ceiling game and while he certainly has the potential again, it’s always dangerous banking on that when he’s playing alongside Lillard.
Jusuf Nurkic, dollar for dollar, may be one of the best tournament plays on the slate. He’s one of maybe three or four bigs in the league with legitimate triple-double upside and his size is going to be needed to combat Anthony Davis in the post. His issue, however, is fouling. He can get yanked quick if he picks up two in the first quarter, but his $6,800 tag makes this a risk that’s easier to stomach.
