The Read Option, Week 9: Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs game for Week 9.

Week 9 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs (Germany)

KC -2.5, O/U 50.5
Pace: MIA: 27.2 sec/snap (14th), KC: 27.6 sec/snap (22nd)

FTN Data Breakdown

• Tyreek Hill has a 37.8% target share against man coverage this season.
• He also has a 26% target share against the blitz.
• Kansas City is blitzing 33.3% of the time this season.
• They are also playing man coverage 36% of the time, the fifth-highest rate.
• Tua Tagovailoa is completing 69.7% of his passes with 8 TDs and 8.7 yards per attempt against the blitz.

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa is coming off a strong game Sunday, completing a season-high 30 passes for 324 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. He leads the NFL in passing yards (2,396) and ranks second in yards per attempt (8.8). This is such a fun matchup for Tua and the Dolphins, as Kansas City has been great against opposing signal callers this season, surrendering the fourth-fewest yards per attempt (6.1) and sixth-fewest yards per completion (10.1). Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is predicated on man coverage and blitzing, which isn’t exactly a recipe for success against this Miami offense. Against the blitz this season, Tagovailoa is completing 69.7% of his passes with 8 TDs and 8.7 yards per attempt. He is also completing 64% of his passes against man coverage with 11.3 adjusted yards per attempt. Only one player has finished as a QB1 against the Chiefs this season, but this is such a fascinating matchup between the defensive tendencies and what Miami’s offense does best. In a potential shootout, Tua is obviously a top-seven play.

Running Back

Raheem Mostert found the end zone last week but played less than 60% of the snaps, while handling just 54% of the team’s rush attempts. It isn’t a cause for concern since Mostert has handled 60% of the rush attempts since Week 6 anyway, but the Dolphins do appear to be getting Jeff Wilson on the field a bit more, as he played 25% of the snaps and recorded seven touches last week. Mostert remains a top-12 fantasy running back as long as De’Von Achane is sidelined, and the Chiefs have been much more vulnerable against the run — they just allowed Javonte Williams to finish as RB9 against them last week. On the season, Kansas City ranks bottom-10 in both yards before and after contact per rush attempt. 

Wide Receiver

We are entering Week 9, and Tyreek Hill already has over 1,000 yards with eight touchdowns. He has been unstoppable this season, recording 100 yards and/or a touchdown in all but one game, while his 35% target per route run rate leads the league. You simply cannot play man coverage against Hill. If any team understands that, it is his former team, the Chiefs. However, this team plays man coverage 36% of the time, the fifth-highest rate in the league, so it’ll be interesting to see if the Chiefs shift to a more zone-heavy scheme. If they don’t, look out, as Hill has a whopping 37.8% target share against man coverage this season, while averaging a gaudy 2.97 fantasy points per target against man coverage, the most in football. He also has a 26% target share against the blitz, while Kansas City is blitzing 33.3% of the time. The Chiefs have had L’Jarius Sneed shadow opposing top wideouts this year, but you can’t follow Hill when he’s in pre-snap motion as much as he is. Per FTN Data, Hill is in motion pre-snap on 15% of his snaps. Start Hill if you enjoy scoring fantasy points.

Jaylen Waddle has gotten it going. He caught 7-of-12 targets for 121 yards and a touchdown last week, giving him a touchdown in three of his last four games. His 12 targets from last week were a season-high, as Waddle now has a 22% target share on the season. It’ll be interesting to see if Sneed is on Waddle for much of this game since he isn’t used in pre-snap motion nearly as often as Hill. Waddle has been in pre-snap motion just nine times so far this season, which is a huge reason why his weekly floor and ceiling doesn’t come close to Hill’s. Of course, games like last week are why you always start Waddle as a top-20 wideout, while Hill being in motion actually set him up for a wide-open touchdown.

Tight End

Durham Smythe is getting some absolutely elite cardio in this season, ranking 15th among tight ends in routes but 38th in targets. You can safely look elsewhere. 

Quarterback

In a shocking upset last week, Patrick Mahomes failed to score a touchdown, ending his streak of 29 consecutive games with at least one touchdown pass. It feels like one of those games that happen once every year that you forget about and move on from. He should bounce back this week against the Dolphins, who are getting healthier on defense, but are still allowing the ninth-most points per drive in the NFL (2.10). They are also allowing a 69.5% completion rate, the seventh-highest rate in all of football. Mahomes rushed for 20 more yards Sunday, giving him at least 20 rushing yards in seven of eight games this season. His 4.5 rushing attempts and 29.2 rushing yards per game are career highs, as Mahomes is scrambling more due to the Kansas City wideouts struggling to consistently get open. Mahomes is a top-five signal caller.

Running Back

Isiah Pacheco failed to score last week, while his 11 touches were a season low. That’ll happen when the Chiefs struggle on third downs and are playing from behind. Since Week 4, Pacheco has still handled about 70% of Kansas City’s rushing attempts, while averaging a solid 18 touches per game. And while Jerick McKinnon is still playing most of the third downs, Pacheco is getting plenty of targets on early downs, as his target share is up by almost seven percent from his rookie season. The sophomore running back is on the RB1/RB2 borderline against the Dolphins.

Wide Receiver

Rashee Rice remains the only wide receiver from this team that you are even remotely considering starting. He has run a route on at least 60% of dropbacks in each of the last two weeks, which is a step in the right direction, and exciting when you consider he has been targeted on 26% of his routes over the course of the season. Rice has seen at least five targets in six of eight games so far this season. Lining up in the slot 60% of the time this season, Rice will see primary coverage from Kader Kohou, who is allowing 0.36 fantasy points per coverage route this season, to go along with an 83.3% catch rate, three touchdowns and a 126.0 passer rating in coverage. Rice is a risky WR4/flex option. 

Tight End

Travis Kelce has at least eight targets in every game this season, leading all tight ends in target per route run (31%) and target share (23%). The Dolphins are coughing up the sixth-most fantasy points (13.8), sixth-most receptions (5.8) and sixth-most receiving yards per game (58.0) per game to opposing tight ends. I’d probably start him.