Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Seattle Seahawks and Cincinnati Bengals game for Week 6.
Week 6 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals
CIN -3, O/U 45.5
Pace: SEA: 25.2 sec/snap (6th), CIN: 27.0 sec/snap (20th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- 12.5% of Kenneth Walker’s rush attempts have gained 10-plus yards this season.
- 17.2% of the runs against the Bengals have gained 10-plus yards, the second-highest rate in the league.
- Seattle is allowing 98.5 yards per game to opposing No. 1 wide receivers (fifth most).
- Ja’Marr Chase has a 36% target share over the last three weeks.
Quarterback
Coming off the bye week, Geno Smith will travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. Smith didn’t have to do much before the bye, completing just 13-of-20 passes for 110 yards and a touchdown in a blowout win over the Giants. He’s facing a Bengals pass defense that has taken a bit of a step back this season, allowing the sixth-highest passing touchdown rate in the league at 5.2%. They are, however, right around league average when it comes to fantasy points per game allowed to opposing signal callers, making Smith a mid-range QB2 for me this weekend.
Running Back
Kenneth Walker is currently the RB8 in fantasy points per game (18.4). He’s remained the same boom/bust running back, as 12.5% of his runs have gained 10-plus yards this season, while a large percentage of his carries also gain two or fewer yards. And while Seattle drafted Zach Charbonnet this offseason, it hasn’t hurt Walker’s usage, as he is still playing 60% of the snaps, handling 67% of the team’s rushing attempts and averaging 18 touches per game. Walker is also dominating the high-value touches, as his seven carries inside the 5-yard line are the second-most in football. Meanwhile, he has accounted for 87.5% of Seattle’s carries from that area of the field, the sixth-highest rate in the league. He gets a favorable matchup with a struggling Bengals run defense that is allowing 5.3 yards per carry this season. 17.2% of the runs against the Bengals have gained 10-plus yards, the second-highest rate in the league. Walker could certainly rip off a few explosive runs in this game.
Wide Receiver
DK Metcalf’s 19% target share is down from last season (26%), though he’s still running a route on 86% of dropbacks. Metcalf will face a Bengals team that is playing man coverage 34% of the time, the sixth-highest rate in the league. Against man coverage this season, Metcalf is averaging a healthy 11.5 yards per target, while his target share is about 4% higher than against zone coverage. And according to Player Profiler, Metcalf is averaging 2.78 fantasy points per target against man coverage, the fourth-best mark in the league. He’s a mid-range WR2 this week, while Tyler Lockett is more of a low-end WR2. He actually has a target share around 29% against man coverage this year but has been more productive against zone coverage over the years.
Tight End
Noah Fant, Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson all continue to play meaningful snaps for the Seahawks, making it very difficult to trust anyone from a fantasy perspective. Fant undoubtedly has the highest ceiling, which we saw in Week 4 when he caught a pass 51 yards for a touchdown. However, he’s run a route on just 43% of dropbacks this season, while sporting a target share of just 10%.
Quarterback
Joe Burrow looked like himself last week, completing 36-of-46 passes for 317 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. Against an Arizona defense that didn’t send blitzes or generate pressure, Burrow was finally able to connect on some deep shots, connecting on a 63-yard touchdown pass to Ja’Marr Chase. He says he is feeling close to 100% healthy, which is what everyone wants to hear. This week, Burrow will face the Seahawks, who have quietly been a pass funnel this season. 76.1% of the yardage gained against the Seahawks has come through the air, the fourth-highest rate in football. Opponents are attempting over 41 passes per game against Seattle this year and given how Cincinnati is struggling to run the football right now, we should expect plenty of dropbacks from Burrow again. With Seattle also allowing a 68.5% completion rate (8th-worst), Burrow is back to being a low-end QB1.
Running Back
The production hasn’t been there, but Joe Mixon continues to see a ton of work. On the year he is playing 75% of the snaps and handling 83% of the Bengals’ rushing attempts. He’s seen a carry or a target on 32.9% of his snaps, the 10th-highest rate in the league, while averaging a healthy 19.4 touches per game. Mixon is only averaging just 4.2 yards per touch, which ranks outside the top-32 running backs in the league and now has to face a Seattle run defense that is allowing just 0.53 yards before contact per attempt, the second-lowest mark in the league. They are also coughing up the fewest overall yards per carry (3.2), making Mixon a volume-based RB2 ahead of this matchup.
Wide Receiver
Well then, Ja’Marr Chase. The All-Pro wideout dominated in Week 5, hauling in 15-of-19 targets for 192 yards and three touchdowns. With Tee Higgins sidelined, it was a career day for Chase, who is now sporting a massive 36% target share over the last three weeks. He’s seen 43 targets during that span — since the 2021 season, Chase has played in three games where Tee Higgins has played less than 30 snaps. In those contests, he is averaging 11 targets, 7.3 receptions, 97 receiving yards and 19.2 PPR points per contest. We’ll see if Higgins is back in the lineup this weekend but regardless, Chase is an obvious top-three wideout with WR1 overall upside now that Burrow is healthier. Seattle has been awful against opposing wideouts this season, surrendering the most fantasy points per game to the position. They are also allowing 98.5 receiving yards per game to opposing No. 1 receivers, the fifth most in the league.
If Higgins plays, he’ll return to being a mid-range WR2. The Seahawks are allowing 8.2 targets per game to opposing wideouts on the right side of the formation (fourth-most), which is where Higgins lines up about 45% of the time. Seattle is also allowing a healthy 14.4 fantasy points per game to wideouts on the right side of the field, the seventh-most. And if Higgins remains sidelined, both Tyler Boyd and even Trenton Irwin are worth a look. With Higgins out last week, Irwin ran a route on 82% of dropbacks, catching 8-of-10 targets for 60 yards. Boyd, meanwhile, ran a route on 86% of dropbacks, catching 6-of-7 targets for 39 yards.
Tight End
Irv Smith returned from a two-week absence last week, logging 61% of the snaps and running a route on 63% of dropbacks. He wasn’t targeted in the passing game and is sporting an ugly 5% target share over the course of the season. Smith is not on the fantasy radar.
