WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns game for Week 4.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
CLE -2.5, O/U 41
Pace: BAL: 26.8 sec/snap (20th), 28.5 sec/snap (29th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Elijah Moore ranks ninth among WRs with 19 snaps in pre-snap motion this season.
- He’s lined up out of the backfield 22 times through three weeks.
- Zay Flowers ranks first among wideouts with 39 snaps in pre-snap motion.
- Cleveland has allowed just two red-zone possessions so far this season.
- They are also allowing -0.29 yards before contact per rush, easily the best rate in football.
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson has been phenomenal through three weeks, completing over 73% of his passes for 600 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He didn’t throw one last week but did rush for 101 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 14 carries. His 19 designed rushes are the second-most in the league, as Baltimore is actually sporting the league’s second-lowest neutral-script pass rate (48.5%), which isn’t exactly what we expected with Todd Monken coming in during the offseason. Jackson is playing at an MVP level but faces a brutal matchup against the Cleveland Browns, who are allowing the fewest points (0.49), yards (12.6) and plays (4.0) per drive. Meanwhile, opposing offenses are scoring points on just 12.8% of drives against the Browns, easily the lowest rate in football. They are also allowing just 3.2 yards per play. You aren’t sitting Jackson, but I am tempering expectations, especially with so many members of this Baltimore offense banged up.
Running Back
Gus Edwards was expected to be the lead running back for the Ravens last week. And it started that way, as the veteran carried the ball 10 times for 49 yards. However, he left with a concussion in the second half and did not return. Melvin Gordon took over during the fourth quarter and overtime, but Edwards is practicing in full, so he should be fine for Sunday. Justice Hill, meanwhile, didn’t practice last week with a toe injury. If Hill remains sidelined, Edwards would make for an uninspiring flex play against a Cleveland defense that is actually allowing -0.29 yards before contact per rush so far this season.
Wide Receiver
With Odell Beckham sidelined last week, Zay Flowers continued to operate as the clear WR1 for Baltimore. He caught 8-of-10 targets for 48 yards, as he continues to mostly be used around the line of scrimmage. When Baltimore can’t run the football, they have been using Flowers and the short passing game as an extension of the run. Through three weeks, Flowers is sporting an aDOT of 4.84, the sixth-lowest rate among receivers with 10 or more targets. Baltimore is moving him around the formation, as no wideout has had more snaps while in pre-snap motion than Flowers (39). As a result, he has a 30% target share to go along with 25% TPRR and should continue to have a strong floor. He’ll remain on the WR2/WR3 borderline.
It might not happen for Rashod Bateman this season. Despite Beckham being out last game, Bateman once again split work with Nelson Agholor, who played more when the Ravens were in 11 personnel. Bateman caught just one pass for six yards, and whether or not Beckham plays on Sunday, he shouldn’t be in any starting lineups for fantasy.
Tight End
It was a quiet game for Mark Andrews, who caught just four passes for 35 yards against the Colts. Through two games, Andrews has run a route on 86% of dropbacks, while sporting a 20% target share. He has 31% of Baltimore’s third- and fourth-down targets over the last two weeks and obviously should continue to be viewed as a top-three fantasy tight end, regardless of this tough matchup.
Quarterback
Last week was make or break for Deshaun Watson, and he got it done in a friendly matchup against the Titans. He completed 27-of-33 passes for 289 yards and two touchdowns but now gets a more difficult matchup with the Ravens, who are getting healthier in the secondary. And even despite the injuries, the Ravens are allowing the third-fewest yards per pass attempt (5.4), while also coughing up the eighth-fewest passing yards off play-action (128). 30.4% of Watson’s pass attempts have come off play-action so far this season, while his 33% dropback rate is the third-highest rate among qualified signal-callers. I have Watson as a mid-range QB2 ahead of this AFC North showdown.
Running Back
In Cleveland’s first game without Nick Chubb, Jerome Ford was the lead running back, though it certainly wasn’t the usage we saw last Monday night. Ford logged 55% of the snaps and 33% of the team’s rush attempts, totaling 51 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 12 touches. Ford was on the field for 7-of-10 third downs and would have had more touches if the game wasn’t out of hand, which is when Pierre Strong got his playing time and carries. We did see Kareem Hunt active and involved, playing 21% of the snaps and touching the ball seven times. It is possible he is more involved after a full week of practice with his (somewhat) new team, but Ford is at the very least the 1A here. Baltimore has been an elite run defense since the second half of last season but did just allow 145 total yards and a touchdown to Zack Moss last weekend. Ford is my RB23 for the week, while Hunt is a player to add off waivers if he’s still available.
Wide Receiver
Amari Cooper caught 7-of-8 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown against the Titans, and it would have been a massive game if the refs didn’t mistakenly rule him out of bounds on a would-be long touchdown. You’ll still take the performance from Cooper, who now has seven receptions in consecutive games. So far this season, Cooper is sporting a 25% target share, while seeing over 40% of Cleveland’s air yards. If Marlon Humphrey can’t return this week, Cooper will see coverage from Ronald Darby and Brandon Stephens. The Darby matchup is nothing to worry about, while Stephens has allowed the second-most targets (29) and receptions (21), to go along with a 73% catch rate.
The usage for Elijah Moore has been pretty exciting, too. Through three weeks, Moore has the same amount of targets as Cooper (25), sporting a 24% target share. Cleveland continues to use him all over the formation, as he’s operating from the slot 51% of the time, while playing a whopping 22 snaps from out of the backfield. Eighteen of those instances have come since Chubb has been sidelined. The Browns also get him the ball from motion, as his 19 snaps from pre-snap motion are the ninth-most among all wide receivers. There hasn’t been a huge ceiling for Moore given the fact that he’s averaging just 5.1 yards per target and 1.83 air yards per route run. But the floor seems strong considering how often Cleveland is manufacturing touches for him. Now averaging 10.3 opportunities per game, Moore should be viewed as a weekly WR3.
Tight End
David Njoku has been very underwhelming so far, averaging just 0.19 fantasy points per route run, down from his 0.35 mark from last season. The addition of Moore has really hurt Njoku, as his target share has dropped from 18.5% in 2022 to just 12% so far this season. He’s still running a route on about 80% of Cleveland’s dropbacks but is also being targeted on just over 12% of his routes run, down from 19.9% in 2022. And through three games, he only has one red-zone target. If you managed to add Sam LaPorta or Luke Musgrave off waivers, you should be starting them over Njoku.
