2023 Fantasy Coaching & Coordinator Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons

(Welcome to the FTN Fantasy NFL Coaching & Coordinator Series. All summer, our Adam Pfeifer will be looking at every team’s coaching staff through a fantasy football lens, to see what means what and how a fantasy manager can capitalize on it. Today: The Atlanta Falcons.)

Atlanta Falcons Head Coach: Arthur Smith

Falcons head coach since 2021

Running the football and setting up play-action.

It has been a staple of Arthur Smith’s offense in both Tennessee and Atlanta. During his first season as the head coach of the Falcons in 2021, Smith saw a drop in play-action rate from his final season with the Titans. A lot of that had to do with the fact that Derrick Henry wasn’t in the backfield for Smith, as Atlanta’s run game wasn’t nearly as intimidating as Tennessee’s. During his final season with the Titans in 2020, Tennessee sported an insane 57.1% play-action rate, which was one of the highest rates in football. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill finished third among all quarterbacks in play-action pass attempts (170), while his 193 play-action dropbacks tied for the second-most. 

The presence of Henry in the backfield set everything up for Tannehill and the play-action game. But heading into a season where Atlanta’s top running backs were Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson, you knew the offense would look pretty different. And that was clearly the case. Smith’s play-action rate dropped from 57.1% during his final season in Tennessee to just 35.2% last year. It was truly a change of pace for Smith, who went from arguably the run-heaviest offense in football to one that had to throw early and often. Atlanta posted a 60.9% pass rate in 2021 (9th-highest), while the 38% rush rate was pretty easily the lowest of Smith’s career as a coordinator or head coach. Still, the Falcons, despite often trailing in games, boasted the 11th-highest rush rate when behind by eight or more points (31.7%). 

But in 2022, Smith got back to running the football. And the Falcons did it well.

Elite Run Scheme

Atlanta wasn’t just one of the run-heaviest offenses in the NFL last season. They were one of the run-heaviest offenses in over a decade. In fact, their rushing play percentage of 55.2% was the second-highest rate in football since the 2009 New York Jets (59.2%). The Falcons called a run 55.6% of the time in neutral-game scripts last year, trailing only the archaic Chicago Bears offense. And it isn’t as if Smith abandoned the run when the Falcons got behind. They ran the ball 52% of the time when trailing by eight or more points. Atlanta called a pass on just 39% of early downs last season, the second-lowest rate in football. This team established the living hell out of the run, and given the fact they were very, very successful on the ground, why wouldn’t they? 

The Falcons ranked third in the league in rushing EPA per play last season, led by an elite run-blocking offensive line. Just 15% of Atlanta’s carries were stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage this past season, the fourth-lowest rate in football. Smith, who ran an absurd amount of outside zone during his time as the offensive coordinator in Tennessee, has continued that trend in Atlanta. Last season, no team in football used outside zone at a higher rate than the Falcons (58%). And overall, zone concepts were used on a whopping 97% of Atlanta’s rushing attempts, though counter runs were not at all part of this offense. 39% of their runs went to the tackle, so if you didn’t set the edge against this rushing attack, you were in some trouble.

Rookie running back Tyler Allgeier had a fantastic rookie campaign, rushing for over 1,000 yards while ranking ninth in yards before contact per rush attempt (2.9). And from Week 10 on, Allgeier ranked 10th in rushing yards (612), seventh in 100-yard games (2) and third in yards per attempt (5.3). The entire offensive line is underrated, but especially the right side led by right guard Chris Lindstrom. 

Per FTN’s Rushing Direction stats, Allgeier averaged 6.2 yards per carry on 92 total runs to the right in 2022. Lindstrom posted PFF’s top run-blocking grade in zone concepts, while tackle Kaleb McGary posted the third-highest grade. Cordarrelle Patterson was also efficient running the football, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and 2.9 yards before contact per attempt. Meanwhile, all four of Atlanta’s running backs averaged at least 2.9 yards before contact per rush. This is truly one of the elite rushing attacks in all of football, and now it is adding one of the best running back prospects we’ve seen in quite some time.

We just dove into how impressive and efficient Allgeier was in this scheme. Now imagine the damage that Bijan Robinson can do. It is an exciting scheme fit, as Robinson, who can run any concept, can certainly thrive in the outside zone. But he also fits the personnel, too. During his time at Texas, Robinson was clearly the lead running back but did play in offenses that used multiple running backs. The Longhorns ran a ton of plays where both Robinson and Roschon Johnson were on the field together, and I think that is something we could see the Falcons do a bit in 2023. 

Last season, Atlanta ran 230 plays with multiple running backs on the field, easily the most in the NFL. And overall, the Falcons used 21 personnel a healthy 21% of the time, the fifth-highest rate, while running the football over 73% of the time when in 12. Robinson also has plenty of experience running out of Wildcat formations, so it really wouldn’t surprise me to see Smith sprinkle some of that into the playbook. Of course, it is unlikely to be a large rate, as teams really don’t run it anymore. According to FTN Data, there were just 297 total Wildcat plays in the NFL last season, with 164 of them (55%) coming from the Saints and their usage of Taysom Hill. Still, do not be surprised if we see the Falcons play a good bit of Pony personnel with both Robinson and Allgeier on the field together.

The Passing Game

While Atlanta’s passing attack certainly wasn’t anything to write home about last season, they had plenty of advantageous opportunities. Because opposing defenses knew they had to try to stop Atlanta’s rushing attack, the Falcons faced single-high safety looks at the 10th-highest rate in football last year.  Last season, as a rookie, Allgeier saw stacked boxes on 40% of his carries, the highest rate among qualified running backs. So when Atlanta would drop back to pass, they’d often take shots down the field off play-action. The Falcons’ 44% play-action rate led the entire NFL last season, while 118 of Marcus Mariota’s 300 pass attempts came off play-action (39.3%). 

Mariota was aggressive off play-action, too, sporting the league’s second-highest aDOT off the play type at 11.6. Atlanta would take shots on post routes, as according to FTN Data, posts made up 6.4% of Mariota’s pass attempts last year, the third-highest rate in the league. A lot of those posts went to tight end Kyle Pitts. Posts made up 11.9% of his targets, the sixth-highest rate in all of football. Mariota faced two-deep safety looks on just 124 of his 354 dropbacks last season, and defenses will likely have a similar approach against Desmond Ridder in 2023. 

Ridder used play action just over 39% of the time as the starting quarterback last season but wasn’t as aggressive as Mariota, sporting an aDOT of just 7.9 off the play type. The opportunities will be there for Ridder to take shots down the field to Pitts and Drake London this season.

The addition of Robinson will also impact the passing game. Robinson showcased the ability to win legitimate routes deep down the field in college, whether out of the backfield, from the slot or out wide. And while we always hear coaches say that their star running back is lining up everywhere, it might actually happen with Robinson, especially after the Falcons selected him eighth overall. During rookie minicamp, Robinson stated that “he [Arthur Smith] uses me everywhere, from receiver to running back. 

He lets me do my abilities and skill set the right way, whether running routes, obviously running the football, blocking and doing it all.” As a team last season, Atlanta sported the eighth-lowest running back target share in the league at 16.5%, though running backs did see more usage in the passing game with Ridder under center. 

*Per FTN Data

Personnel

A former tight ends coach, Smith has always loved using a ton of 12 personnel. Two tight-end sets have been heavily utilized in his offenses in Tennessee, and that carried over with the Falcons. Over his first two seasons in Atlanta, Smith has used 12 personnel 27% and 25% of the time, both of which were top-five rates in the league during those seasons. Atlanta added Jonnu Smith during the offseason, who worked alongside Smith during his time with the Titans, so he is quite familiar with the offense he wants to run. Meanwhile, the Falcons ran 11 personnel (three wide receivers) just 35% of the time last year, the second-lowest rate in the league. 

Offensive Coordinator: Dave Ragone

Bears passing game coordinator in 2020, Falcons OC since 2021

Ragone joined Atlanta as the offensive coordinator during the 2021 season and has worked with Smith for years. In fact, the connection dates back to 2011 when Ragone and Smith were in Tennessee. Ragone has been either a quarterbacks coach or passing game coordinator for most of his NFL career, while also playing the position in the league, so it will be interesting to see what he can do for sophomore quarterback Desmond Ridder, who enters his first season as the full-time starting quarterback. 

Defensive Coordinator: Ryan Nielsen

Saints co-defensive coordinator/defensive line coach in 2022

The Falcons have had one of the more generous defensive units in football over the last few seasons. Their pass rush has been non-existent, as Atlanta has ranked last in pressure rate each of the last two seasons. Ryan Nielsen comes in to hopefully change that. He has been a defensive line coach at the NFL level since 2017, while the Falcons made some additions to the defensive line this offseason, adding Calais Campbell, Bud Dupree and David Onyemata, who Nielsen worked with in New Orleans. I’m not expecting the Falcons to suddenly become one of the league’s elite defenses, but this unit should be much improved in 2023.

Fantasy Football Takeaways

After sitting most of his rookie season, Desmond Ridder made four starts to end the 2022 campaign. During that span (Weeks 15-18) he wasn’t fantasy relevant, averaging just 10.6 fantasy points per game and 0.31 fantasy points per dropback, which ranked 35th among all signal-callers. Ridder averaged four rush attempts per game during that stretch, and we saw Smith call plenty of designed quarterback rush attempts last season. 

Still, there is just so little volume and upside for Ridder, as Mariota averaged just 23 pass attempts per game last year, while Ridder averaged just 28.7 per game during his four starts. The Falcons continue to add really, really good skill position players, but it won’t be enough to make Ridder fantasy relevant.

Whether you agree with it or not, you knew that a team would select Bijan Robinson inside the top 10 during the NFL draft. After the Atlanta Falcons selected him eighth overall, they should have huge plans for Robinson, who, in case you are living under a rock, is one of the best running back prospects we have come across over the last decade. Robinson forced 104 missed tackles during his final season at Texas, and according to Pro Football Focus, his 39% forced missed tackle rate was the best rate since they began charting college football. Robinson has good size at 5-foot-11, 215 pounds but also possesses tremendous stop/start ability, especially at that frame. 

Meanwhile, he legitimately might have the best vision I have ever seen from a running back. Robinson is also an excellent pass-catching running back, averaging over 13 yards per reception throughout his collegiate career. Texas would often line him up out wide, and Robinson can run a multitude of routes. If he entered the draft process as strictly a wide receiver, he might be a top-five talent among the rookie wideouts. So the player? Elite. But what about the landing spot in Atlanta?

Also elite.

This Falcons running scheme is stellar, as their carries were stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage just 15% of the time last year, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. Atlanta ranked top-five in yards before contact per rush last season, while both Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary ranked as top-three run-blocking offensive linemen, per PFF. Atlanta ran 230 plays with multiple running backs on the field last season, the most in the league, while operating out of the pistol formation at the highest rate in football. Robinson, who played in a similar style of offense at Texas, will be a perfect fit and on a team that sported the league’s second-highest neutral-script run rate in 2022 (55.6%), 

Robinson should be seeing as many touches as anyone in football, especially given the draft capital. Since 2015, there have been five running backs selected in the top 10 of the NFL draft. Those running backs averaged a healthy 291.4 touches during those seasons, so 300 touches is firmly in the range of outcomes for Robinson, especially in this run-centric Atlanta offense. He’s a top-five running back and arguably the No. 1 overall player in dynasty leagues.

As we discussed earlier, Tyler Allgeier put together a really strong rookie campaign last season. Allgeier rushed for over 1,000 yards and really emerged down the stretch for the Falcons. From Week 10 on, Allgeier ranked 10th in rushing yards (612), seventh in 100-yard games (2) and third in yards per attempt (5.3). We know the Falcons are going to run the ball as much as any team in the league, though it may not be enough for Allgeier to have standalone value in fantasy. Still, he’s an elite handcuff, especially in this running back friendly scheme.

Drake London saw a ton of work over the course of his first NFL season. In fact, among qualified wideouts in 2022, London ranked fourth in targets per route run (29%), while his 29.4% target share also ranked fourth among all wide receivers. To be fair, a lot of his huge target games came down the stretch with Ridder under center and Kyle Pitts sidelined. In fact, London averaged nine targets per game in the four games with Ridder at quarterback, though Pitts missed all of those games. Atlanta won’t be a high-volume passing offense, but it will be a super-concentrated one, giving London the potential of reaching 120 targets. Given his talent and role, London is a back-end WR2 with serious breakout potential.

After eclipsing 1,000 yards as a rookie, Kyle Pitts took a step back last season. He missed seven games due to injury, but even before his season ended (Weeks 1-11), Pitts was underwhelming, ranking 17th among tight ends in fantasy points, seventh in targets (56), 19th in receptions (28) and 11th in receiving yards (356). Pitts played out wide 34% of the time as a rookie, but that dropped to around 27% this past season while he was in-line almost 5% more often. The usage of Pitts has been a bit head-scratching at times, but there is still so much tantalizing upside here. 

For starters, Pitts has led the tight end position in aDOT in each of the last two seasons, while 12% of his targets this past season came off post routes. And per FTN Data, his 4.10 air yards per route run led the entire NFL. Secondly, his 29% targets per route run still led the position. Pitts was getting open down the field last season, but Mariota struggled with ball placement. Just 59% of Pitts’ targets were deemed catchable last year, the lowest rate among tight ends. Still just 22 years old, Pitts is an elite talent with top-three upside at the tight end position.