Second-Year Scouting Report: James Cook

June is underway, and we’re getting closer and closer to the 2023 regular season. Best ball leagues have been drafting for months now, and they are getting more popular now that we understand landing spots for veteran free agents and rookies. 

Every year, rookie fever emerges, and the previous class gets pushed aside by the shiny new NFL toys. This usually results in a rookie surge of ADP, which opens up pockets of value, especially with players from the previous class who may not be as established as some long-time veterans in the league. This happens even though most fantasy analysts (and players) understand the largest leap occurs from Year 1 to Year 2. Throughout the summer, FTN will be releasing second-year scouting reports to keep these players fresh in fantasy managers’ minds. We continue our second-year scouting report series today with Bills’ presumed new starting running back James Cook and his outlook in 2023 and beyond. 

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills

James Cook was a surprise pick last April when he was selected with the 63rd overall pick by the Buffalo Bills, but it was a perfect fit. Cook was a fourth-year senior out of Georgia who possessed 4.4 speed and had incredible pass-catching prowess. While at Georgia he caught 67 balls for 730 yards and 6 touchdowns, but this was just the tip of the iceberg. He also showed a natural ability to be highly efficient in the run game, both inside and outside the tackle box. He totaled 1,503 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns on just 230 carries, an impressive 6.5 yards per carry. 

Between his impressive college numbers and a landing spot on an electric offense, Cook’s ADP skyrocketed in all formats last season. Cook was the third running back drafted in almost all rookie drafts, somewhere between the fifth pick and the eighth. In redraft, he was not as highly coveted but still was going ahead of former running mate Devin Singletary. 

What Went Wrong

James Cook‘s rookie year was held in check by the Bills’ coaching staff. He was in a timeshare that leaned in favor of Devin Singletary for the majority of the season. That meant Cook saw limited opportunities, only averaging 7.6 opportunities a game (121 opportunities). Outside of this, there was not much to complain about for Cook. 

What Went Right 

As alluded to above, Cook had a small sample size, but he was highly effective with it. He tied for second in the league (among RBs, min. 70 carries) in yards per attempt at 5.7, and if you include his stats from the vacated Week 17 game he would have jumped to a league-leading 5.8. In four games with at least 10 carries, he was a top-30 back three times — in two games with at least 13 opportunities, he was RB131 and RB10.

Prognosis Entering 2023

Heading into 2023, James Cook is currently favored to be the lead back in the Bills’ backfield but will split touches with Damien Harris and/or Latavius Murray. The only concern here is whether he can handle a workload of this caliber — Cook has never topped 150 touches in a season, college or pro. But I think he can manage it. Cook’s efficiency allows him to be viable for fantasy even in a limited role. I think we see him handle close to 12-15 touches per game in 2023, so there is a good chance he produces double-digit PPR points in most weeks, putting him into the bottom half of the RB2 discussion. Add in a few boom weeks when he finds the end zone and we are talking about a mid- to high-level RB2. 

Dynasty Prognosis

Entering Year 2, there is a lot of intrigue to Cook for dynasty purposes. This will depend of course on his 2023, leaving a ton of risk built into acquiring James Cook currently. If he struggles again or is outplayed by Damien Harris, there is a good chance Cook doesn’t ever hit that ceiling we are hoping for and falls into running back purgatory. 

Now, I don’t think this will happen as he is a perfect fit for what the Bills want to do in the run game. On the flip side, it is unlikely he ever reaches double-digit touchdowns, as he is a different style of a runner than that and has Josh Allen vulturing touches inside the 5. In other words, it’s unlikely James Cook ever becomes a consistent top-12 fantasy option, but I do think he’ll be a relatively safe top-24 weekly option for a few years.