Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Rookies get all the attention. They’re the flashy new piece that could be anything. And then a class of rookies comes through and they’re old news, replaced by the next flashy, new thing. But last year’s rookies aren’t gone, and in many cases, they’re going to be even better than the exciting new pieces that are just showing up.
Of course, sometimes they won’t be, and that matters too. So as we head toward training camp, preseason, and then the start of the 2022 NFL season, we’re taking a look at last year’s rookie class. What did we think about last year’s rookie class? What worked? What didn’t? And what’s the prognosis for them going forward?
Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers
At this point last year, Elijah Mitchell was almost a complete afterthought in the minds of fantasy managers. Raheem Mostert was returning as the starter after a few standout games in 2020, and rookie third-rounder Trey Sermon was a popular sleeper pick.
Now, in 2022, the former sixth-rounder seemingly has a stranglehold on the starting running back job in 49ers’ training camp. He’ll look to build off a strong rookie campaign, but that means maintaining control of the San Francisco backfield, fending off his own teammates and staying healthy.
What Went Right
In Mitchell’s surprising first season, he finished second among rookies in rushing yards to Najee Harris thanks in large part to Mostert’s injury in game one. After Mostert went down, Mitchell took on a full starter’s workload and never gave it up.
He led the team in rushing share in 13 of his 14 games, including playoffs. So much for all the hype about Kyle Shanahan’s ambiguous backfields. Mitchell bruised his way to an efficient year, ranking 10th in yards per carry and yards per carry after contact.
Because of his tendency to punish opposing tacklers, and the 49ers’ love for pounding the rock, the rookie bell cow faced 7+ men in the box on 85% of his attempts per FTN’s number of box defenders data. When he did get the rare opportunity to run against a light box, Mitchell abused defenses to the tune of 5.97 yards per carry, good for fifth in the NFL among backs with at least 100 total carries.
His impressive skill and trust from a run-first coaching staff led to an RB11 finish in points per game in 2021. When Mitchell was on the field, he was getting touches and cashing in for fantasy managers that likely spent a waiver priority or obscene amount of free-agent acquisition bucks (FAAB) on him.
What Went Wrong
Despite returning some of the best value in all of fantasy football last season, there are some things Mitchell left on the table for fantasy managers. First and foremost, he wasn’t much of a threat as a pass-catcher.
He recorded zero catches in five separate games and only totaled 19 receptions for the season. Almost every non-pass-catching running back has a limited ceiling, and Mitchell may have hit his, especially considering he averaged a shade under 20 carries per game.
His college production – 1.2 receptions per game – says he might not have the skill set to be a reliable weapon in the passing game. Plus, the 49ers quarterbacks threw the ball to their running backs at the third lowest rate in the NFL.
In addition to a nearly non-existent receiving role, Mitchell didn’t score quite as many touchdowns as other players who carried the ball a similar amount (207 carries). Some of that can be attributed to wide receiver Deebo Samuel’s eight rushing touchdowns, but Mitchell was also underwhelming as a rusher in the red zone, as illustrated by his 39th-ranked PFF red-zone rushing grade.
It didn’t help that Deebo ranked third in the same category and began to vulture scoring chances from Mitchell as the season went on. His lack of receptions, relatively disappointing touchdown output and injuries prevented him from returning league-winning value.
Prognosis Entering 2022
All signs point to Mitchell once again being the guy in the San Francisco backfield, but that title might hold a little less weight in 2022 than it did in 2021. Yes, a potential bell-cow back in a Kyle Shanahan scheme is fantastic, but Trey Lance is taking over behind center, and he’ll certainly have an impact on the running game.
In Lance’s two starts last season, Mitchell accounted for 46% of the 49ers’ rushing attempts compared to his 63% share for the entire year. Lance, meanwhile, gobbled up a 37% share himself, a massive number for a quarterback. It’s a small sample size, but it’s no secret that Lance will run the ball a lot more than Jimmy Garoppolo did.
On top of quarterback carries, Mitchell also has to deal with wide receivers toting the rock. Deebo Samuel got heavily involved in the ground game beginning in Week 9, and he accumulated a 21% rushing share from that point through the end of the regular season. With a myriad of capable ball carriers – and touchdown threats – around him, Mitchell’s situation presents some risk.
Still, he averaged 19 carries per game last season, and that kind of workload is tough to come by in modern fantasy football. He’s currently being drafted in the fifth round, so you can give me his talent with 15+ touches per game all day for my RB2 or RB3 spot. If you prefer swinging for the fences every round, he may not be your guy. But Mitchell projects as a high-floor, stabilizing back in fantasy this season.
