Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With not much left in the way of big offseason events that will change teams’ futures, our eyes can truly turn toward the season to come, preparing for fantasy football drafts and looking forward to what we need to know for success in 2022. With that in mind, all summer long, I’ll be using our FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at some of the key situations to know for the season. The Splits Tool allows you to experiment with situations with active/inactive players, spreads, locations, and more to help you get a picture of everything you need for your fantasy football season. Sign up for an FTN Fantasy subscription now to experiment with the tool as you prepare for your season.
Houston, We Have a Problem
After winning the AFC South four out of five seasons, the Houston Texans hit rock bottom in 2020. They fired head coach and general manager Bill O’Brien after an 0-4 start and won only four of their last 12 games. During the offseason, the Texans addressed the front office vacancies by hiring New England Patriots director of player personnel Nick Caserio as general manager and Baltimore Ravens assistant coach David Culley as head coach. Deshaun Watson got unhappy with the team’s direction and requested a trade. He threatened to sit out for the entirety of the season rather than take another snap as a Texan. Things only got more complicated after Watson was accused of sexual misconduct. With the lack of certainty at quarterback, the Texans deployed a contingency plan and signed Tyrod Taylor to a one-year contract worth up to $12.5 million. Taylor had experience playing with Culley back in 2017 with the Bills. The Texans doubled down at quarterback and drafted Davis Mills with the third pick in the third round of the 2021 NFL Draft. With Watson sitting out, Mills saw the field plenty and held his own in his rookie season and will be the unquestioned starter next season. In this article, I will be looking at how the Texans’ offense fared with Mills under center and what we can expect in 2022.
Houston Texans Offense
The Texans gave the veteran nod to Tyrod Taylor, who opened as the Week 1 starter. Taylor had a strong game, throwing for 291 yards and two touchdowns en route to a dominant 37-21 victory against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Unfortunately, Taylor couldn’t hold on to the job for long after suffering a hamstring injury in Week 2. Mills stepped in for Taylor and eventually took over as the starter. Mills showed promise as a rookie, passing for over 300 yards on four separate occasions and finishing as a QB1 in four out of eleven starts. The Texans were a much better passing offense with Mills under center, averaging 2.5 more pass attempts and 42.28 passing yards. The rushing production, however, decreased by 19.6 yards per game.
Brandin Cooks, WR
Brandin Cooks has been one of the most consistent wide receivers since entering the league in 2015. He has eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in six seasons while playing for four teams, including last season. In 2021, Cooks saw the 11th-most targets (134) and 90 passes for 1,037 yards and six touchdowns. Although Cooks finished top-10 in target share (26.9%) last season, his numbers were even better with Mills. Cooks averaged 0.5 more targets per game while also receiving an uptick in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Cooks finished just outside the top-20 wide receivers on the season but was the WR16 in the games started by Mills.
Check out why I’m drafting Brandin Cooks in my 2022 Best Ball Targets: Rounds 1-6.
Nico Collins, WR
After selecting Mills with the 67th pick of the 2021 NFL Draft, the Texans traded back into the third round and drafted wide receiver Nico Collins out of Michigan. Collins had a quiet rookie season, missing three games with a foot injury. He caught only 33 of his 60 targets for 446 yards and one touchdown. Although Collins took a back seat to Cooks, he more than doubled his targets, receptions and yards in the eight games he played with Mills as the starter. Collins should take a step forward as a sophomore with a full season under his belt and an entire offseason with Mills. He will enter the 2022 season as the No. 2 option for the Texans, while 2023, second-round rookie wide receiver John Metchie recovers from a late-season ACL injury.
Brevin Jordan, TE
The Texans used their third pick in the 2021 NFL Draft in round 5 and selected tight end Brevin Jordan out of Miami. Jordan was inactive for the first half of the season but played eight games with Mills under center. He did not have much impact, catching just 28 passes for 178 yards and three touchdowns. It isn’t uncommon to see rookie tight ends offer minimal production in year 1. Jordan falls into the late-round streaming group of tight ends and is worth taking a shot at in the final rounds of drafts.
Check out where Jordan ranks among tight ends using the FTN consensus.
