Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
George Kittle and Darren Waller are being drafted incredibly close to one another in fantasy football drafts. However, there are a lot of differences between both players’ situations this season, which makes it an interesting debate as to which tight end is the better bet for your fantasy roster.
Let’s break down the two stars.
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
The Case for Kittle
You could make the case that George Kittle is the best all-around tight end in the NFL. He is the best in the league when it comes to ability after the catch, while no player at his position is better at run-blocking. After consecutive breakout campaigns in 2018 and 2019 where Kittle averaged 86.5 receptions, 121.5 targets, 1,215 yards and five touchdowns, the All-Pro tight end has been a bit more up-and-down the last two years. But he remains an elite talent. Kittle has led all tight ends in yards per route run in each of the past three seasons (3.12, 2.84, 2.35). During that same span, Kittle also ranked sixth, fourth and third in yards after the catch per reception. While Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews have been the top tight ends over the last two seasons, don’t think that Kittle doesn’t have that same upside on a weekly basis. There was a two-game stretch last year where Kittle hauled in 22-of-27 targets for 332 yards and three touchdowns against the Seahawks and Bengals. Kittle ranked second among all tight ends in yards per target (9.6), while his 12.8 yards per reception was good for sixth best at the position. On a per-target basis, Kittle remains one of the unquestioned top players in the league.
The Case Against Kittle
Kittle is arguably the best run-blocking non-offensive lineman in football, which is extremely valuable to San Francisco. Unfortunately, you don’t receive fantasy points for blocking. Because he is asked to run-block in an offense that ranked fourth in neutral-script rush rate last season (48.3%), Kittle actually only ranked 18th among all tight ends in routes run (389). Meanwhile, only Geoff Swaim of the Titans recorded more run-blocking snaps at the position than Kittle (365). There are questions whether Kittle can reach Kelce and Andrews in terms of fantasy production and in more of a pass-first offense, he sure can. However, for reference, Andrews averaged over 17 more routes per game than Kittle last season, a number that is by no means insignificant. Meanwhile, Kittle only averaged 6.7 targets per game last season, as he competed with Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk for targets in a run-first offense. It also remains to be seen how the rapport with Trey Lance will look. We saw Lance play a little in his rookie season — in those games, Kittle averaged 6.2 targets per game, while his PPR points per game dropped by over two points.
Darren Waller, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
The Case for Waller
After consecutive stellar seasons in 2019 and 2020, Darren Waller’s 2021 campaign was a bit all over the place. It kicked off with a bang, as Waller torched the Ravens on Monday Night Football in Week 1 to the tune of 10 catches for 105 yards and a touchdown on a whopping 19 targets. However, from then on, he was more inconsistent and ultimately missed six games over the course of the season. Entering the 2022 campaign, things are a bit different in Las Vegas, as the Raiders added one of the best receivers in the game in Davante Adams. The overall target sure is clearly going to come down but Waller is going to see one-on-one coverage all season long, which wasn’t at all the case last season. Waller saw bracket coverage from opposing defenses so often last season, which was part of the reason we saw the emergence of Hunter Renfrow. With Adams in town, opposing defenses simply won’t be able to double-team Waller, which will present him with more advantageous looks on offense.
Waller is coming off a season where he still finished third among tight ends in deep targets with 12, despite missing six contests. And in 2020, no tight end saw more deep targets than Waller (17), so he will be able to make the most of his targets, even if they go down this season. But the Raiders were an extremely pass-heavy offense last year, sporting the league’s sixth-highest neutral-script pass rate at 60.6%. New head coach Josh McDaniels has a track record of running the football, but given the team’s personnel, it wouldn’t shock me if they were a top-five team in overall pass rate. Quarterback Derek Carr is coming off a career-high in pass attempts (626), while Las Vegas’ 65.4% red zone passing rate was the fourth highest in football. Adams is surely going to lead this team in targets but if the Raiders continue to throw the football at one of the highest rates in the league, there will still be plenty of looks headed Waller’s way.
The Case Against Waller
The obvious case against Waller is the addition of Adams, though I believe it will be tremendous for his overall efficiency and ability to see single coverage. Still, we love targets and opportunity in fantasy, and Waller’s is sure to come down. Over the past three seasons, Waller is averaging a healthy 8.2 targets per game, while ranking first (100) and seventh (76) in first-read targets over the last two seasons. That volume is going to take a hit, but it is still entirely possible (and even likely) he sees more targets than Kittle because of the offense he plays in.
The Verdict: Darren Waller
If Kittle played for a team that was even middle of the road in terms of pass rate and allowed him to run more routes, not only would he be my choice here, but he’d be closer to the Kelce/Andrews tier. However, that isn’t the case. Both tight ends are suddenly dealing with crowded pass-catching rooms but I know Waller’s offense will throw the ball more to help balance that out, while the routes should be in his favor, too. There is also a bit of an unknown with Trey Lance under center for San Francisco, while we’ve seen Derek Carr play as a top-12 quarterback for multiple years in the NFL. It is extremely close, but Waller gets the edge.
