College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models, and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.
We have six games Wednesday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for December 22 | NBA DFS First Look
Orlando Magic @ Atlanta Hawks
ATL -8.5, total: 2155
Pace: ORL (14th), ATL (15th)
Situations to monitor:
- Mo Bamba, Jalen Suggs, Markelle Fultz, Terrence Ross, Michael Carter-Williams, RJ Hampton and Mo Wagner are all listed as out for the Magic. Cole Anthony and Wendell Carter are listed as questionable.
- Trae Young, Clint Capela, Danilo Gallinari, De’Andre Hunter and Solomon Hill are listed as out for the Hawks. Bogdan Bogdanovic and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot are listed as questionable.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics
BOS -6, total: 211.5
Pace: CLE (21st), BOS (20th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley, Isaac Okoro, Lamar Stevens, Ed David, Denzel Valentine, Dylan Windler and RJ Nembhard are all listed as out for the Cavs.
- Al Horford, Josh Richardson, Grant Williams, Jabari Parker, Juancho Hernangomez, Sam Hauser and Brodric Thomas are all listed as out for the Celtics.
Toronto Raptors @ Chicago Bulls
CHI -9.5, total: 213.0
Pace: TOR (27th), CHI (16th)
Situations to monitor:
Per Marc Stein, this game is currently at risk of postponement, as the Raptors have called players up from the G-League who may need to go straight into health and safety protocols.
- Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent, Justin Champagnie, David Johnson, Malachi Flynn, Goran Dragic, Aron Baynes and Dalano Banton have all been ruled out for the Raptors. Khem Birch is listed as questionable.
- Alex Caruso, Derrick Jones, Patrick Williams, Devon Dotson, Stanley Johnson and Alize Johnson have been ruled out for the Bulls. Ayo Dosunmu and Zach LaVine are listed as doubtful while Troy Brown is listed as questionable.
Houston Rockets @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -9.5, total: 224.5
Pace: HOU (4th), MIL (9th)
Situations to monitor:
- John Wall, Kevin Porter, Jalen Green and Danuel House have been ruled out for the Rockets. Christian Wood is listed as questionable.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez and Donte DiVincenzo have been ruled out for the Bucks.
Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
DEN -6.5, total: 214.5
Pace: DEN (25th), OKC (17th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jamal Murray, Michael Porter, Markus Howard, P.J. Dozier and Bol Bol have been ruled out for the Nuggets. Aaron Gordon and JaMychal Green are listed as questionable.
- Tre Mann is listed as questionable for the Thunder.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Sacramento Kings
LAC -6.5, total: 219.5
Pace: LAC (11th), SAC (5th)
Situations to monitor:
- Marcus Morris and Isaiah Hartenstein are listed as out for the Clippers.
- De’Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley, Terence Davis, Alex Len and Davion Mitchell are listed as out for the Kings. Richaun Holmes is listed as questionable.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are three noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Wednesday.
This season with Zach LaVine, Alex Caruso, Derrick Jones and Ayo Dosunmu off the floor, Coby White is posting a 25.6% usage rate
White hasn’t been back from his injury for long, but he should be thrust into a massive role on Wednesday with all of those aforementioned players expected to miss this game. He’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute with a 10.7% assist rate and 9.4% rebounding rate in that scenario, making him an elite source of salary relief for $4,100 — obviously, assuming this game tips off.
Cam Reddish has posted a 34.2% usage rate with Trae Young, Clint Capela and Danilo Gallinari off the floor this season
Averaging 1.52 DraftKings points per minute in this scenario, Reddish has shown zero issues with taking over the role as the primary offensive catalyst for the Hawks. In a smash matchup with little depth to deter from getting the ball in his hands, Reddish is yet another elite value piece on a slate riddled with options.
With Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen off the court, Kevin Love posts a team-high 1.49 DraftKings points per minute
Both Love and Lauri Markkanen should be primed for larger roles, but it’s been the veteran Love that has been more productive in this scenario. His 26.9% usage rate in this scenario is third on the team behind only Darius Garland and Ricky Rubio, making Love a viable pivot off the more popular value pieces.
NBA Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
Below are some of the top value plays on Monday’s slate on DraftKings, pulled from the LineupEDGE optimizer (with their points-per-dollar included). For the rest of the preferred value plays, visit FTNDaily’s cheat sheets.
- D.J. Wilson, TOR (8.14x)
- Yuta Watanabe, TOR (6.92x)
- Svi Mykhailiuk, TOR (6.77x)
- Coby White, CHI (6.61x)
- Dean Wade, CLE (6.5x)
For the rest of the top value plays on the slate, check out the Cheat Sheets for our analysts’ exposures and the NBA Optimizer for the best point-per-dollar plays.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic ($12,600)
- Jayson Tatum ($11,100)
- Paul George ($10,900)
- DeMar DeRozan ($10,200)
- Nikola Vucevic ($10,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic ($11,400)
- Jayson Tatum ($9,900)
- Jrue Holiday ($9,600)
- Paul George ($9,200)
- DeMar DeRozan ($8,900)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic (1x)
- Jrue Holiday (1.15x)
- Tyrese Haliburton (1.15x)
- DeMar DeRozan (1.15x)
- Paul George (1.15x)
With Wednesday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Tuesday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $250 Fadeaway ($50k to first) Tuesday:
- PG: Kemba Walker (41.00)
- SG: Nickeil Alexander-Walker (37.75)
- SF: Evan Fournier (34.50)
- PF: Dorian Finney-Smith (38.00)
- C: Karl-Anthony Towns (58.50)
- G: Damian Lillard (56.50)
- F: Sterling Brown (32.75)
- UTIL: Jalen Brunson (48.00)
Total: 347.00
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $200k Shot ($40k to first) Tuesday:
- PG: Kemba Walker (39.1)
- PG: Damian Lillard (53.9)
- SG: Jalen Brunson (49.4)
- SG: Evan Fournier (33.9)
- SF: Josh Hart (42.5)
- SF: Dorian Finney-Smith (36.7)
- PF: Larry Nance (31.2)
- PF: Mikal Bridges (30.5)
- C: Karl-Anthony Towns (54.3)
Total: 371.5
With Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway all ruled out for the Mavs, rostership concentrated around Jalen Brunson and Dorian Finney-Smith, both of whom smashed from a per-dollar standpoint. Sterling Brown was the difference-maker for the Mavs, coming in sub-20% owned on DraftKings and going for over 10x his $3,100 price tag. Karl-Anthony Towns and Damian Lillard were the No. 1 and 2 spend-ups, but with so much value on the slate, they were both heavily owned given how easy it was to get there.
The difference-makers in the winning lineups included Alexander-Walker on DraftKings and Josh Hart on FanDuel, as the Pelicans’ ancillary pieces provided value that the chalk Jonas Valanciunas did not.
