NBA DFS Preview – First Look (12/16)

After a massive 11-game NBA DFS slate Wednesday, things calm down a little bit around the NBA Thursday. We have just four games, but there’s still plenty to discuss.

Be sure to take advantage of the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

NBA Vegas Data for December 16 | NBA DFS First Look

Detroit Pistons @ Indiana Pacers

IND -10, total: 210
Pace: DET (7th), IND (25th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jerami Grant will be out for the next six weeks with a thumb injury, while point guard Killian Hayes is questionable to play.
• T.J. McConnell remains out for the Pacers.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets

BKN -1.5, total: 214.5
Pace: PHI (29th), BKN (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

• The Nets remain very short-handed, as James Harden, LaMarcus Aldridge, James Johnson, DeAndre Bembry, Bruce Brown and Paul Millsap are in the league’s health and safety protocols.
• This is the second end of a back-to-back for Philadelphia and considering Joel Embiid is dealing with a minor rib issue, it is entirely possible he rests here.

New York Knicks @ Houston Rockets

NYK -5, total: 215.5
Pace: NYK (18th), HOU (3rd)

Situations to monitor:

• RJ Barrett, Kevin Knox, Obi Toppin and Quentin Grimes are in the league’s health and safety protocols.
• The Rockets are still missing Jalen Green and Kevin Porter, though Christian Wood could return to the lineup Thursday.

Washington Wizards @ Phoenix Suns

PHX -8, total: 213.5
Pace: WAS (26th), PHX (1st)

Situations to monitor:

• With this being the second end of a back-to-back for Washington, Spencer Dinwiddie is likely to rest Thursday.
• Devin Booker will remain out for the Suns.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Cade Cunningham touched the basketball 98 times in Detroit’s last game

That number is way up from his season average of 76.5 per game, as he was relied on even more in the absences of both Jerami Grant and Killian Hayes. The latter could return today but Grant is out indefinitely, which definitely helps Cunningham, as the rookie is sporting a 31.4% usage rate, 16% assist rate and 16% rebounding rate with Grant off the floor this season, while also averaging a strong 1.14 fantasy points per minute in the split. And with Grant out in Detroit’s last game, Cunningham possessed the ball for 6.3 minutes, up from his season average of 5.4 minutes of possession per game on the year.

Alperen Sengun is averaging 1.23 fantasy points per minute with Christian Wood off the floor this season

Wood sat out Houston’s last game and while Daniel Theis entered the starting lineup, Sengun still played 28 minutes off the bench, giving him at least 23 minutes in each of his last three games. It is going to be tough for Wood to return to the lineup on Thursday and if he remains out, Sengun is once again a very strong play. He’s averaging 1.23 fantasy points per minute with Wood off the floor this year, while also sporting a 22.8% usage rate, 26% rebounding rate and 15% assist rate. Sengun has at least four assists in each of his last three games and with Kevin Porter and Jalen Green also still sidelined, look for the rookie to continue facilitating quite a bit.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

The Brooklyn Nets — Seriously. Brooklyn is so short-handed once again and will likely have an eight-man rotation against the 76ers. David Duke, Nicolas Claxton, Cam Thomas and Kessler Edwards are all very strong value options once again.

Killian Hayes/Saben Lee vs. IND — Hayes is questionable with a thumb injury, but he has been practicing. If he’s active, I’d prefer him as the value play, especially with Jerami Grant out. If Hayes is out, Lee would get the bump. He played 28 minutes last game with Hayes exiting early.

For more value plays, check out the NBA cheat sheets.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Eric Bledsoe (42.75)
Tyrese Haliburton (42.0)
Kyle Anderson (41.75)
Gordon Hayward (53.75)
Alperen Sengun (46.75)
Jrue Holiday (55.0)
Anthony Edwards (53.75)
Norman Powell (49.5)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Eric Bledsoe (41.0)
Jrue Holiday (52.8)
Terrence Ross (40.4)
Gordon Hayward (50.5)
Anthony Edwards (49.5)
Norman Powell (50.7)
Kyle Anderson (43.7)
Alperen Sengun (46.7)
Karl-Anthony Towns (52.8)

It isn’t too shocking to see both Jrue Holiday and Alperen Sengun in both optimals, as they greatly benefited from the absences of key players around them. Milwaukee was without both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton Wednesday, resulting in a 31% usage rate and a whopping 9.1 minutes of possession from Holiday. Sengun, meanwhile, came off the bench with Christian Wood out but still double-doubled in 28 minutes, thanks to his 26% rebounding rate and 15% assist rate with Wood off the floor this season.