NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/3)
Alex Christenson
The fantasy football playoffs start in Week 15 on most leagues, and it isn’t too early to start preparing. Part of that is pinpointing the most favorable matchups that are on the horizon and that is exactly what we continue to do every Monday.
Let’s take a look.
Miami Dolphins backfield vs. New York Jets
Over the last handful of weeks, Myles Gaskin has been dominating the workload for the Dolphins. However, things could change in Week 15, as both Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed have been placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 List. Both players tested positive for the virus, but with Miami coming off their bye week, it is very possible that one or both of Gaskin and Ahmed is active Sunday. However, if they can’t make it back in time, Phillip Lindsay would become an interesting DFS value play and waiver wire target in seasonal leagues, especially against the awful Jets defense. New York is coughing up a league-worst 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game on the season, while 53.3% of the touchdowns allowed by the Jets this season have come on the ground, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Keep a close eye on this backfield as the week goes on.
Christian Kirk @ Detroit Lions
Christian Kirk has been a bit up-and-down this season, but we have some a handful of ceiling games from him, especially in favorable matchups. This definitely constitutes as a favorable matchup, as the Lions are coughing up the highest average depth of target in football this season (9.4 yards), while also allowing the third-most air yards in the league (1861). Kirk has been the downfield receiver in this Arizona offense, as 54.5% of his receptions on the year have come on passes 20 yards or more down the field, which is tied for the 11th-highest mark among all qualified wide receivers. Kirk is also averaging nearly 10 yards before the catch per reception on the year and while you worry about the overall passing volume from the Cardinals in this game, Kirk could make the most of whatever targets he gets.
Diontae Johnson vs. Tennessee Titans
Three things in life are certain: death, taxes and Diontae Johnson seeing double-digit targets. The Steelers star wideout has seen at least 10 targets in 10 of 12 games this season, including each of his last five contests. On the season, Johnson is inside the top five among all receivers in first read targets, and that likely won’t change anytime soon. Now he gets a favorable matchup with a Tennessee secondary that is inside the bottom five in terms of fantasy points allowed to the wide receiver position this season. Meanwhile, a whopping 73.3% of the passing yardage against the Titans this year has come through the air, the fifth-highest mark in football.
Cleveland Browns RBs vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Browns and Raiders play Saturday afternoon, so make sure you have your lineups set. Cleveland’s running backs haven’t done much of anything over their last two games, but this could easily be a get-right spot for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt (if Hunt gets cleared from his Week 14 injury), as they face a Raiders defense that just allowed three total scores to Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams on Sunday. And over their last three games, the Raiders have allowed a whopping six total touchdowns to opposing running backs.
James O’Shaughnessy vs. Houston Texans
Look, tight end can be rough and if you really need help at the position or are looking for value this week, you could do a lot worse than James O’Shaughnessy. The veteran has taken over as the top tight end in the absence of Dan Arnold over the last two weeks. During that span, O’Shaughnessy has logged 73% and 66% of the offensive snaps, while seeing a healthy 12 targets from Trevor Lawrence, who is not attacking down the field at all during his rookie season. A matchup with the Texans is favorable, as they just allowed a touchdown to Gerald Everett Sunday and have been dreadful at defending opposing tight ends for most of the season.
