FTN NBA Betting Show: November 6th
Alex Christenson
Prop God
Dane Martinez
With a loaded NFL slate Sunday, the NBA DFS slate is a bit light, as the main slate features just three games. One team has a ton of missing players, however, which makes this slate even more interesting.
Be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer.
NBA Vegas Data for December 5 | NBA DFS First Look
Charlotte Hornets @ Atlanta Hawks
ATL -7, total: 220
Pace: CHA (2nd), ATL (18th)
Situations to monitor:
- The Hornets are dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak and will be without LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Jalen McDaniels and Mason Plumlee for the foreseeable future.
- The Hawks wings remain banged up, as they will be without Bogdan Bogdanovic, while Kevin Huerter and Cam Reddish are both questionable.
Washington Wizards @ Toronto Raptors
TOR -1, total: 212
Pace: WAS (21st), TOR (22nd)
Situations to monitor:
- OG Anunoby and Khem Birch will remain sidelined for the Raptors.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Houston Rockets
NOP -2.5, total: 220
Pace: NOP (11th), HOU (1st)
Situations to monitor:
- Kevin Porter and Jalen Green are out for the Rockets.
- Josh Hart is questionable for the Pelicans.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
LaMelo Ball is averaging 89.4 touches per game this season
That is the fifth-highest number in the NBA, while Ball is also averaging 6.3 minutes of possession per game. His absence, along with Terry Rozier’s, will be massive for the Hornets. With both players off the floor this season, Ish Smith sees a near three percent bump in usage, while sporting a very healthy 17% assist rate in the split. Meanwhile, Kelly Oubre sees a 3.6% bump in usage rate. With Ball, Rozier and Jalen McDaniels all out, plenty of players from the Hornets are extremely viable.
Josh Hart is averaging 4.7 transition points per game on the year
Hart currently ranks 12th in the league in transition scoring and if he is active for this game against the Rockets, he makes for a very strong mid-range option, just as long as he isn’t limited or anything. Houston plays at the fastest pace in the NBA but are also coughing up a league-worst 23.6 transition points per game on the season, while also allowing the fifth-most points per possession (1.13) off the play type. Hart is sporting a very healthy 33% frequency rate in transition this season so if he is good to go, I have a lot of interest.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
DraftKings optimal lineup
Dennis Smith (41.5)
Desmond Bane (47.75)
Terence Davis (37.0)
Dorian Finney-Smith (37.0)
Bobby Portis (53.0)
Dejounte Murray (53.5)
Zach LaVine (53.0)
Dennis Schroder (52.0)
FanDuel optimal lineup
Dennis Smith (43.8)
Zach LaVine (52.6)
Desmond Bane (45.8)
Dennis Schroder (49.8)
Caleb Martin (34.1)
Tim Hardaway (42.4)
Jayson Tatum (47.0)
Kevin Durant (51.0)
Bobby Portis (52.7)
With Portland’s backcourt depleted, Dennis Smith made for one of the best value plays of the slate and he delivered with over 40 fantasy points on both sites. Meanwhile, Bobby Portis posted a strong double-double (19 points, 16 rebounds) in the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Both players were fairly popular, but it was difficult to not look their way on this slate.
