NFL Schedule Release: The Biggest Pre-/Post-Bye Changes in Fantasy Football 2024

If you’re reading this Wednesday, the day it is published, first, thanks for reading promptly! And second, we’re within a few hours of learning the full 2025 NFL schedule (after days of games trickling out infuriatingly). And while we have known every team’s full slate of opponents since the minute Week 18 ended, there is one key piece of new information we get in Wednesday’s announcements.

Bye weeks.

If your team has an early bye, you mourn the long unending stretch of games that awaits them afterward. If it’s a late bye, well, that messes up the fantasy football playoff drive. But what the byes are is the one thing every team runs into over the course of the season, the one time a team can well and truly take a step back and make some significant changes.

To that end, every year you see a handful of players see a dramatic shift in fantasy scoring before and after the bye. A guy who gets elevated in role suddenly goes from a fantasy bench guy to a starter. Another guy gets phased out and only remains a fantasy name because of reputation. There are any number of reasons a player sees a big jump or fall in fantasy production around the bye.

Today, let’s look at some of the biggest pre- and post-bye movers in fantasy football last year, and what that might mean for 2025.

(PPR scoring; players needed at least three games on each side of the bye and 100-plus total fantasy points to qualify.)

2024 Fantasy Football Post-Bye Risers

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR, Miami Dolphins (then Tennessee Titans)

PPR points per game before the bye: 0.0
PPR points per game after the bye: 10.7
Change: I’ll give a percent change in the other entries here, but you can’t do that when you’re dividing by zero, so … big increase

Obviously, Westbrook-Ikhine’s rise to relevance last year came on the back of an obviously unsustainable increase in touchdown rate, with the veteran receiver scoring 8 touchdowns on 38 targets across eight games coming out of the Titans’ bye. No one can expect that to continue or ever happen again. But it’s also worth noting that Westbrook-Ikhine did see a massive spike in playing time coming out of the bye. He averaged 13 snaps a game before the Titans’ Week 5 bye, but then played at least 50 snaps in 11 of their final 13 games, averaging 55.3 per game. The problem? The spike didn’t come after the bye; it came after the team traded DeAndre Hopkins to the Chiefs. Now in Miami, Westbrook-Ikhine is behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle (plus Jonnu Smith at TE and maybe second-year Malik Washington). In other words, expect him to fall back by the wayside unless/until a trade or injury opens up a role for him.

Marvin Mims Jr., WR, Denver Broncos

Before: 4.8
After: 17.0
Change: +257.1%

In the second and third games of his career, back in 2023, Mims totaled 199 scrimmage yards and a touchdown (plus 121 yards and a score on kick returns). There was excitement around the Broncos’ second-round rookie. Excitement that went exactly nowhere, because Mims didn’t score again as a rookie and only topped 32 snaps in a game once all year. He was just a guy, and that “just a guy” status continued into 2024, with him playing sparingly, targeted less, and just floating around the offense. But after the Broncos had their Week 14 bye last year, Mims saw his usage spike … a little. He averaged 15.4 snaps and 2.3 targets per game before the bye, 24.3 and 5.5, respectively, after. But after exactly one career game with more than 4 targets before that stretch, he had 4, 5, 8 and 5 targets in those last four games, turning them into 236 yards and 4 touchdowns. If that sort of explosiveness continues into 2025, Mims will be a nice little flex play.

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Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers

Before: 7.1
After: 20.7
Change: +190.8%

This accounts for all games, including two Young entered in relief of Andy Dalton after his benching, but even if you remove those, he saw a 120.8% increase before and after the bye. The popular narrative is Young was a new man after returning from his benching, but it’s not exactly true. The second-year quarterback started three games after re-entering the lineup before the Panthers’ Week 11 bye, and he averaged 173.7 passing yards in those three games, with 4 touchdowns against 3 interceptions and a 79.8 passer rating. But after the bye is when Young seemed to figure it out. He averaged 226.1 yards per game over those seven games, with 11 TDs and 3 picks and a 92.3 passer rating, including closing the year with three straight games of a 100-plus rating. It’s that break, not the Andy Dalton one, that really seemed to get Young going, and it builds in some nice hope for 2025, especially with Tetairoa McMillan now in the fold.

Jonnu Smith, TE, Miami Dolphins

Before: 5.6
After: 16.2
Change: +190.3%

Smith was a new Dolphin in 2024, and while he carried name value, he was very ho-hum as a producer at first, going into the Week 6 bye with 14 receptions on 21 targets for 140 scoreless yards. Yawn. But he hit a never-before-seen level after the bye, averaging 6.2 receptions and 7.5 targets for 62.0 yards over the final 12 games and scoring 8 times. He jumped from TE20 before the bye to TE1 after, 5.7 points ahead of Trey McBride and 14.3 ahead of Brock Bowers. Sure, we aren’t picking Jonnu as the top tight end for 2025, but the numbers showed he was a different guy with different usage after that. Getting him at TE7 in early 2025 ADP seems like a nice little value.

2024 Fantasy Football Post-Bye Fallers

Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans

Before: 21.2
After: 7.1
Change: -66.5%

Mixon came out like a man with something to prove last year, nearly cut by the Bengals before they ultimately traded him away for a seventh-rounder basically a pittance for a team to have dibs. After all, Mixon had four 1,000-yard seasons in his last six years and had scored 29 touchdowns in the previous three years. He looked good early, with five 100-yard games in his first six, only missing in an abbreviated Week 2 when he got hurt. Even after the injury, he was strong — Mixon averaged 96.7 rushing yards and 1.7 total touchdowns per game over the six games after returning. But whether it was the ruination of the Texans offensive line or Mixon wearing down as a 28-year-old, he came out of the bye looking rough — he averaged 22.0 carries and 4.3 yards per carry before the bye (Week 2 excepted), but those numbers dropped to 12.0 carries and 3.8 YPC after. Mixon will be the RB1 in Houston at least to start 2025, but those numbers are a big part of why our Matt Okada identified fourth-round rookie Woody Marks as a sleeper rookie running back — Mixon’s decline could continue.

Tyler Lockett, WR, Tennessee Titans (then Seattle Seahawks)

Before: 10.2
After: 3.7
Change: -63.9%

It’s easy to say that Lockett’s 2024 was an out-and-out failure, age finally catching up with a 32-year-old receiver. And while that might be true, the Seahawks didn’t really realize it early — Lockett averaged 50.0 snaps and 5.9 targets per game in nine games before the Seahawks’ Week 10 bye. But with Jaxon Smith-Njigba breakout out and Lockett sitting at WR30 with two touchdowns at that point, the team shifted, and Lockett averaged 39.4 snaps and 2.6 targets per game after the bye, not scoring another touchdown, tying with John Metchie III for WR94 after the bye. Now the WR2 (I guess?) in Tennessee, it’s hard to count on Lockett finding the Fountain of Youth.

Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders

Before: 13.5
After: 6.3
Change: -53.0%

Robinson’s 17-game pace before the Commanders’ Week 14 bye: 235 carries, 1,088 rushing yards, 14 touchdowns. Around 230 fantasy points. Basically Joe Mixon last year.

Robinson’s 17-game pace after the Commanders’ Week 14 bye: 208 carries, 676 rushing yards, 0 touchdowns. Around 125 fantasy points. Basically Ameer Abdullah.

And that was with Austin Ekeler out for most of the post-bye stretch. Robinson set a career high with 799 rushing yards last year, and the team didn’t splurge on the position this offseason, but there are plenty of signs for concern for a 26-year-old who has never really broken out.

Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers

Before: 14.8
After: 8.0
Change: -45.9%

We didn’t know how the Packers’ receiver room would shake out entering 2024, with Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and maybe even Dontayvion Wicks having a claim on heavy targets, not to mention RB Josh Jacobs and TEs Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft hanging around. But to start the season, it was pretty clearly Reed — he led the team in targets before the bye at 47, 5.2 per game. After the bye? Doubs (5.4), Wicks (4.1), Kraft (3.9) and Watson (3.7) all averaged more targets per game than Reed’s 3.5, and Reed went from 43.8 offensive snaps per game to 36.4. The Packers have said Reed is still their No. 1 even after adding Matthew Golden and Savion Williams in the draft, but (a) being the top of a group of like six guys still doesn’t mean monster work, and (b) I’m not at all convinced that’s true.