2025 NBA Playoffs: Cavaliers vs. Pacers Series Preview and Analysis

(Check out FTN’s full NBA playoff coverage!)

The Cleveland Cavaliers face the Indiana Pacers in Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs in a matchup of Central Division rivals.

The Cavaliers have been one of the very best teams in the NBA all season and the top seed in the Eastern Conference since Halloween. They crushed the Miami Heat in the first round, winning the series by 122 points, the biggest difference in a series in NBA playoff history. Cleveland has the coach of the year, two great guards and two great big men, a luxury most teams can’t boast. They seem to be destined to face the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals but have to beat a familiar opponent to get that far.

The Pacers are coming off one of the craziest wins I can ever remember. I turned Game 5 off 40 seconds left in overtime thinking that the Bucks couldn’t possibly blow a seven-point lead. Well, I was wrong. Thanks to a wild sequence of events, Indiana stole the win at the very end. They were the better team all series, but the Pacers struggled to hold big leads and put the Bucks away. Indiana now faces a much better team and won’t be able to afford blowing leads if they want to make the Eastern Conference Finals for the second season in a row.

The Cavaliers should win this series and probably comfortably, but there are several angles for us to attack in the betting markets. In this series preview, we’ll break down each team’s strengths and weaknesses, analyze how they match up, and use FTN’s model, which simulates every series 10,000 times, to project the most likely outcomes and best bets.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers Series Odds

Before we dive into the matchup breakdown, here’s a look at the current series odds for Cavaliers vs. Pacers at DraftKings Sportsbook:

The top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers are solid favorites priced at -400 at DraftKings. The best-of-seven format gives the better team more time to ply their edge over the underdog. It’s a deep number, but it might not actually be deep enough.

After simulating the series 10,000 times, FTN’s model gives the Cavaliers an 87.8% chance to win, compared to 12.2% for the Pacers. We agree with the market and would actually make Cleveland even bigger favorites, deeper than -700.

Although we price the Cavaliers as bigger favorites than the books, it’s not a big enough edge for us to bet.

Cavaliers vs. Pacers: Regular Season Matchup Results

The Cavaliers faced the Pacers four times this season. The Pacers won three of those games but covered only twice.

Key Trends from the Season Series:

• The Last Two Matchups Aren’t Worth Considering: The Cavaliers rested their best players in both games played in April.
• Win The Possession Battle, Win the Game: Whoever had more additional possessions won and covered the spread in the first two matchups.
• The Cavaliers Shot Worse, But Shot More Threes: Indiana was more efficient shooting the ball, but Cleveland made up for by shooting more threes.

Major Takeaways:

• Previous head-to-head matchups are great tools to help us handicap, but we have to be put the proper context around those games. The Cavaliers had locked up the top seed and were more focused on keeping their players healthy than winning games in April. Be sure to skip those matchups as you handicap this series.
• Teams can generate extra chances to score by turning the ball over less than their opponents and getting more offensive rebounds than their opponents. It’s a crucial part of success and will be even more so in a series that features two top 10 offenses.
• The Pacers shot better from the field and from beyond the arc in the first two games but didn’t shoot enough threes. Making shots is important, but more important is making the right kinds of shots. Indiana will need to shoot more threes if they want to upset Cleveland.

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Cavaliers vs. Pacers: Matchup Breakdown & Statistical Comparison

Pace & Play Style

Both teams played a fast style all season. Things tend to slow down in the NBA Playoffs, but I think we’ll see both squads try to push the ball when the opportunity presents itself.

Offensive & Defensive Ratings

Edge: Cleveland, the Cavaliers are an elite NBA team while the Pacers are just a better than average team. Cleveland has a better offense and a better defense.

Shooting & Efficiency

Edge: Cleveland, the Cavaliers are best shooting team in the NBA while the Pacers are just one of the best shooting teams in the NBA.

Rebounding, Turnovers & Possession Metrics

Edge: Cleveland, the Cavaliers are average when it comes to rebounding, but the Pacers can’t take advantage of that as they are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Neither team turns the ball over much, but it looks like Cleveland will have the advantage on the glass.

Cavaliers vs. Pacers: Key Player Matchups

Basketball is a team sport, but these individual player matchups could decide who moves forward in this matchup. 

Donovan Mitchell vs. Tyrese Haliburton

Donovan Mitchell is the most important player for Cleveland’s success. He’s been great for the team in big games this season, increasing his usage without hurting his efficiency, and we’ve seen him have big moments in the playoffs for the Cavaliers and the Utah Jazz. He should be the best player in this series. Tyrese Haliburton, who has already hit a gamer winner in this postseason, is the best guard on Indiana and will be dueling Mitchell at the end of close games. Perhaps Indiana doesn’t keep games close at the end, but if the Pacers can get to the fourth quarter down just a basket or two, Haliburton will have chances to make shots that could change the series if Mitchell can’t answer him.

Donovan Mitchell – Cleveland Cavaliers

• Games Played: 71
• Stats: 24.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 5.0 APG
• Shooting Splits: 44.3% FG, 36.8% 3PT, 82.3% FT
• Advanced: 53.1% eFG, 20.9 PER, 7.6 Win Shares

Donovan Mitchell spent the regular season saving his best stuff for big moments and the postseason. His usage was down to allow his teammates to grow their games and help the team. Now that the NBA Playoffs are here, I expect to see Mitchell be more aggressive, shoot the ball more often, and put up big numbers. The Cavaliers will only go as far as Mitchell can take them and I think he’s ready to carry them a long way.

The key for Donovan Mitchell: Maintain control of Cleveland’s offense. Mitchell will dictate just about everything the Cavaliers do on the offensive end. He must make sure he’s getting his teammates the ball enough without sacrificing the lead on the scoreboard.

Tyrese Haliburton – Indiana Pacers

• Games Played: 73
• Stats: 18.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 9.2 APG
• Shooting Splits: 47.3% FG, 38.8% 3PT, 85.1% FT
• Advanced: 58.2% eFG, 21.8 PER, 10.4 Win Shares

Haliburton had a great season. He shot the bell well as a high usage player that led one of the better offenses in the NBA. Haliburton is one of the most gifted guards in the game and is the foundation of everything Indiana wants to do on offense. His handle is tight, he has great vision, is a great shooter and is even an above-average defender. I don’t expect him to be the best player in this series, but he could be the best player in a game or two.

The key for Tyrese Haliburton: Play at a high level at all times. The one criticism I have of Haliburton is that he seems to go missing at various points of games. He doesn’t ask for the ball or attack with the same fervor he does for most of the game. In this series, and in the playoffs in general, Haliburton cannot afford to play anything less than his best in every minute he’s on the court.

Evan Mobley vs. Pascal Siakam

These are two of the very best power forwards in the league. Fewer and fewer players can play both as a wing and as a small-ball center and even fewer can do it better than these guys. Evan Mobley won the Defensive Player of the Year award this season while also being a big contributor to Cleveland’s offensive success. We all knew he could defend, but his passing and shooting have gotten much better. Siakam is the worst of the two, but not by a large margin. He has plenty of playoff experience from his time in Toronto and can be a more physical presence than Mobley. It will be interesting to see which one of these guys outplays the other in every game.

Evan Mobley – Cleveland Cavaliers

• Games Played: 67
• Stats: 18.5 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 3.2 APG
• Shooting Splits: 55.7% FG, 37.0% 3PT, 72.5% FT
• Advanced: 60.4% eFG, 22.3 PER, 9.0 Win Shares

Even Mobley made significant improvements to his game this season and is on the border of being considered one of the best players in the league. He’s long, athletic, and intelligent. He’s already proven how dominant he can be on defense. If he can continue to contribute on offense, he will be on the floor for as long as possible helping the Cavaliers win games.

The key for Evan Mobley: Be a positive on offense. In past years, Mobley’s inability has made it hard to keep him on the court. This season has been different, but if he’s unable to keep that up then Cleveland will be limited in their success.

Pascal Siakam – Indiana Pacers

• Games Played: 78
• Stats: 20.2 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 3.4 APG
• Shooting Splits: 51.9% FG, 38.9% 3PT, 73.4% FT
• Advanced: 57.2% eFG, 19.2 PER, 7.5 Win Shares

Pascal Siakam is the reason Indiana can be as flexible as they are. Siakam can play next to a center like Myles Turner or Thomas Bryant while also playing center himself in smaller lineups. He’s very athletic, but also very strong which allows him to stay with smaller players and not get pushed around by bigger players. He’s a good shooter and screener which makes him a great fit with Haliburton in pick and roll plays.

The key for Pascal Siakam: Find a way to control the game. Siakam is not likely to be the best player in a game in this series, but he’s one of the few guys who can swing games for the Pacers. Indiana doesn’t generally allow players to chase offensive rebounds, but Siakam should be able to generate extra possession if the coaching staff lets him attack the boards. If he can’t do that, Siakam will have to find ways to make Mobley and Jarrett Allen uncomfortable. Whatever it may be, Siakam has to make big plays for Indiana to win.

Series Prediction: Cavaliers vs. Pacers

Our model at FTN agrees with the sportsbooks. We make the Cavaliers prohibitive favorites, even a little more than the market.

FTN Model Prediction: Pacers

According to FTN’s model, the Cavaliers are all but certain to win this series and advance.

Noops’ Pick: Cavaliers in 5

This won’t be as straightforward as Round 1 for the Cavaliers, but it should be a pretty comfortable series win for them. In a lot of ways, the Pacers want to be what the Cavaliers are. Indiana wants to have a fast offense that shoots a lot of threes and a defense built around a few good players who can guard multiple positions. Unfortunately for them, Cleveland is better than they are in almost every way. The Pacers have better talent at the wing positions, but the Cavaliers have better guards and bigs that more than cover up for the disparity at wing. Cleveland is coming off the most dominant NBA playoff performance of all time while Indiana struggled to put away the Milwaukee Bucks who were on their last legs. I think the Pacers can steal a game, honestly, maybe two, but more often than not, I expect the Cavaliers to make quick work of their opponent.

Best Bets for Cavaliers vs. Pacers

With such a big favorite, it’s hard to find bets that don’t force us to lay a lot of juice, but there are still a few wagers worth making.

Best Bet 1: Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 Games

(+125, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This means the Cavaliers either sweep the Pacers or close them out in Game 5 at home. Everything points to Cleveland winning this series, and I think do so without much trouble. There are not many, if any, edges for Indiana to take advantage of allowing them win games. The Pacers can definitely steal a game at home, but I don’t think they can steal two without winning in Cleveland which is a tall task. The Cavaliers have built their entire season around getting to the Eastern Conference Finals to defeat the Boston Celtics and make the NBA Finals. Thanks to extra time off after Round 1, they should rested and ready to beat the Pacers in five games or less.

Best Bet 2: Darius Garland Series Points Leader

(+1000, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This is definitely a longshot, but one well worth a wager. Garland averaged more points than Donovan Mitchell in the previous series and I think he can do it again. The Pacers don’t have one player that consistently scores a lot, so I think the leader will either be Garland or Mitchell. As I mentioned earlier, Mitchell has done a great job all season of saving his best stuff for big moments and allowing his teammates to thrive. This won’t be exactly like Round 1, but Mitchell won’t have to do a lot of heavy lifting to get the Cavaliers through the series. Garland should have plenty of chances to shoot the ball while Mitchell draws Indiana’s best defenders. +1000 has a breakeven rate of 10%, and I think there’s a much higher than 10% chance that Garland leads this series in points scored.

Final Thoughts on Cavaliers vs. Pacers

It won’t be as easy as beating the Miami Heat, but the Cleveland Cavaliers are clearly the better team and clearly better in most phases of the game. The Indiana Pacers are a good team with an interesting style that can bother other teams, but it won’t bother the Cavaliers. Tyrese Haliburton could peak and win a game, possibly even two, on his own. Pascal Siakam might prove to be too physical for Jarrett Allen and/or Evan Mobley. Some things could go right for Indiana, but I can’t imagine enough things will swing their way to win this series, let alone more than a game. We’ve been on a path all season to an Eastern Conference Finals between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers. The Indiana Pacers aren’t going to stop that from happening.