First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
It’s Tuesday, and the final NBA game of the night gives us another chance to watch Giannis Antetokounmpo, one of the best players in league history, ply his wares. We’ve been so lucky to watch a lanky, undersized teenager grow into one of the more dominant forces we’ll ever see. It’s even more satisfying to watch someone with incredible athletic gifts still work hard and improve his game every offseason.
At the beginning of each season, we’ve clearly seen Giannis add more skill both defensively and offensively. His ball handling, passing, and shooting get better every year, and he’s even added an efficient mid-range jumper to his arsenal. He’s a pleasure to watch and we should take every opportunity we can to see him play. I’ll not only be watching but also betting on this game.
Here’s my breakdown of each team and my best bets for the night.
Milwaukee Bucks at Portland Trail Blazers
Current Line – Bucks -5.5, 229
My Projection – Bucks 115, Trail Blazers 112
Key Injuries – Deandre Ayton and Bobby Portis are questionable.
Portland Trail Blazers +5.5
After an inauspicious 2-8 start to the season, the Bucks got healthy, won the NBA Cup title and are 24-10 in their last 34 games. The Bucks are currently No. 4 in the Eastern Conference, with the eighth-best rating, and they’re getting better. Antetokounmpo is having one of his best seasons, and Damian Lillard is playing much better in his second season in Milwaukee. The rest of the roster is coalescing around them, and it seems they might even make a move to acquire even more talent. They’re not on the level of the Cavaliers, Celtics or even the Knicks, but they’re getting close, and anything can happen when you have Giannis, the best player in the Eastern Conference. Now, that’s all good and well for the Bucks, but it doesn’t guarantee they’ll play well every night and, more specifically, Tuesday. Milwaukee is in the middle of a road trip and will be playing their third game in four nights and the second game in two nights. Back-to-backs have been tough for the Bucks, like many veteran teams. They are just 2-4-1 and the push was a game in which they were seven point favorites and only led by seven for that last 30 seconds of overtime. We haven’t seen an official injury report yet, but with Giannis and Dame each playing 37-plus minutes, I wouldn’t be shocked to see one of them rest. Even if no one takes the night off, this is a tough spot for the Bucks and a good chance to fade them.
I realize betting the Trail Blazers is not an exciting idea, but betting is often about hold your nose and eating the stinky cheese. The Blazers are 25-20-1 against the spread this season, which means if you just bet on them every night, you’d be up almost three units with an ROI over 6%. To be clear, I’m not saying you should start to blindly bet on Portland, but there’s no reason for you to avoid them. Although they are often associated with teams like the Wizards and Jazz who are actively trying to lose, the Blazers have some talent on their roster and have yet to show signs of tanking. Anfernee Simons is arguably the most underrated shooter in the league and should have a great game against a Bucks team that doesn’t have good guard defenders. Toumani Camara, Deni Avdija and Jerami Grant give the team three wings that score and defend against smaller or bigger players. They even have depth at center. Again, it’s not a great team by any means, but they are not nearly as bad as the market is pricing them, especially given the schedule spot for the Bucks. I make this just a three-point game, and we get a chance to take 5.5 points before any players are known to be resting for Milwaukee. If the Bucks are at all full strength, I like the Blazers +5.5. If any of the Bucks miss the game, I love Blazers +5.5.
Looking into player props, our NBA Prop Tool at FTN is showing some nice edges on this event and there is one in particular I like a lot.
Brook Lopez Under 0.5 Steals
(+130, BetMGM/BetRivers)
If you’ve never bet under 0.5 steals, blocks, made threes or really anything, well, then you really have never lived. These bets can be an incredible sweat, but that’s just the cherry on top of a sundae full of expected value. Brook Lopez is a great defender, but being a great defender doesn’t mean forcing turnovers. Lopez has had a steal in just 19 of 44 games this season, 43%, and in just six of his last 17 games, 26%. Our model at FTN projects Lopez to have 0.4 steals and would price this at deeper than -200. At +130 or better, we’re looking at an EV so big I’m nervous to actually type it out here. This bet will not only be fun to monitor but also a wager of great expected value.
You can see all my picks and my record in the FTN Bet Tracker. If you have any questions about other games, drop them in the #nba-betting channel of the FTN Discord and tag me @noopschristenson. I’ll be sure to get back to you ASAP.
