NFL Survivor/Eliminator Picks: Week 16

We’re in the home stretch of the NFL Survivor/NFL Eliminator season. And the NFL season at large, of course, but that’s not the point right now. Anyone still going in their contests has burned through a whopping 15 teams so far, some of them very good, and still has three weeks to go. Maybe you saved some elite teams and skated by with some lesser picks earlier, or maybe you have used the 15 best teams in the league and now have to pick among the hoi polloi of the NFL for Week 16. Either way, hey, you’re still going.

Me, I lost three times in the first five weeks. I’m out of every one of my contests. But … since Week 5, I’m perfect. Ten in a row. That’s sort of like bragging that you got a first down in the fourth quarter down 20 (bro, you already lost), but it is a nice streak and I’d like to keep it going.

This is my NFL Survivor pick for Week 16. As always, I’m starting with all 32 teams and eliminating them bit by bit until I get to my final few contenders and, ultimately, my choice of the week.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 16

Thursday/Saturday

Thursdays remain weird. And for this exercise, Saturdays are honorary Thursdays. I’m just never going to consider teams in the weirdest of spots unless I have to.

Baltimore Ravens (vs. Pittsburgh)
Denver Broncos (@ LA Chargers)
Houston Texans (@ Kansas City)
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Houston)
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Denver)
Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Baltimore)

Helpful to note that there’s no matchup here where I’d feel even kind of comfortable taking either team anyway, so these eliminations were even easier. Six down.

They’re Too Bad

I feel like by the end of the year I’m going to have to dip back into this group as the best teams become inaccessible to me due to already having picked them. For now, though, this is the class of team where I just wouldn’t confidently pick them to beat anyone.

Carolina Panthers (vs. Arizona)
Chicago Bears (vs. Detroit)
Cleveland Browns (@ Cincinnati)
Dallas Cowboys (vs. Tampa Bay)
Indianapolis Colts (vs. Tennessee)
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Las Vegas)
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Jacksonville)
New England Patriots (@ Buffalo)
New Orleans Saints (@ Green Bay)
New York Giants (@ Atlanta)
New York Jets (vs. LA Rams)
Tennessee Titans (@ Indianapolis)

We’re up to a lot of teams that at least I have no interest in the rest of the way. Your mileage may vary. And this isn’t even all of them, because I really want to include the Atlanta Falcons in this space, but they are at least competent enough that they are a candidate against the New York Giants, even with a rookie starting his first game.

So that’s 12 more down, 14 teams to go.

Tough Matchups

The inverse of “They’re Too Bad,” this is where the opponent is too good (or at least too comparable to the team) for me to confidently go against them.

Miami Dolphins (vs. San Francisco)
Minnesota Vikings (@ Seattle)
Philadelphia Eagles (@ Washington)
San Francisco 49ers (@ Miami)
Seattle Seahawks (vs. Minnesota)
Washington Commanders (vs. Philadelphia)

Minnesota, just to name a team, could easily win this game, especially if Geno Smith can’t go. They might literally eat Sam Howell. But still, this is a tough matchup on the road, and I’m not particularly interested in staking my run on that. (Never mind that I’ve already picked both teams in that game; that’s not really the point here.)

Six more down. Eight left.

The Contenders

After the elimination process, we’re down to eight teams:

Arizona Cardinals (@ Carolina)
Atlanta Falcons (vs. NY Giants)
Buffalo Bills (vs. New England)
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Cleveland)
Detroit Lions (@ Chicago)
Green Bay Packers (vs. New Orleans)
Los Angeles Rams (@ NY Jets)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ Dallas)

Some notes on our contenders here:

• The world is (theoretically) your oyster. Your constraints are who you have picked so far, now necessarily who I have picked. So I only consider the teams I have already eliminated for my final pick, but just to get it on the record, from this list, I have already used Arizona, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Green Bay and Tampa Bay this season. That limits me to the Falcons (against the Giants), Lions (against the Bears) and Rams (against the Jets).
• The Falcons having a home game against the Giants is very appealing, but pinning your hopes to a rookie quarterback in Michael Penix Jr. making his first career start is scary. They should win, but if Penix proves to just not be ready, we’ll know (and hate ourselves) very quickly.
• I saved the Lions for most of the season. I felt smart for doing so. Now we’re in Week 16, they have games against the 49ers and Vikings after this (so this might be my last shot to pick them confidently), and the team is falling apart at the seams with injuries. Do I really want to go with the Lions’ MASH unit on the road in a divisional game?
• The Jets have looked better the last couple of weeks, and while the Rams are on a three-game winning streak, they just managed 12 points last week and now they’re traveling across the country into 24-degree weather. (Per USA Today, the only colder game they’ve played under Sean McVay was a 24-12 loss to Green Bay in 2022 and they’re 1-3 in games at 35 degrees or colder).
• Assuming you have them remaining (I do not), but the Bills and the Packers are (or should be) very comfortable picks this week. That said, we’re moving quickly toward the time of year where teams get quasi-locked into their playoff berths and take their feet off the gas. If the Chiefs win and Steelers lose Saturday, the Bills will have a two-game gap between them and the 1 or 3 seed with games against the Jets and Patriots to close the season. They’re close to locked. Meanwhile, the Packers have essentially no chance of rising to the top of the NFC North, so they’ll be a Wild Card, and it’ll be very hard for them to catch the Vikings/Lions for the 5 seed. They still need to stay ahead of the Commanders for the 6 seed, but it’s not a life-or-death sort of situation at this point. Like I said, I still think both win, but we are moving toward the “be careful of motivation” time of year.

The Pick

Each week, you’ll get my No. 1 selection and some honorable mentions.

Detroit Lions (@ Chicago Bears)

If you can run 100 feet and can get to Detroit before Friday, you might be able to get a starting slot on this defense given all the injuries. The injury to David Montgomery robs us of the #RevengeGame narrative. The Lions are dropping like flies and now have to play a road game against a divisional opponent.

… And I don’t care. The Bears are so incompetent right now that even this wildly depleted version of the Lions should be able to handle them. Do I feel excited about it? No. But I do feel like all the injuries have done is take the Lions from 45-10 winners to 31-17 winners. (The person charged with editing this article feels differently, but hey, people disagree sometimes.)

Honorable Mention

Buffalo Bills (vs. New England) — if you didn’t use them when I did
Green Bay Packers (vs. New Orleans) — if you didn’t use them when I did

And, just to give you a backup option if you have been following my picks but want to pivot from the Lions:

Atlanta Falcons (vs. NY Giants)

2024 Record: 12-3

Week 1: Bills (W)
Week 2: Ravens (L)
Week 3: Browns (L)
Week 4: Chiefs (W)
Week 5: Seahawks (L)
Week 6: Texans (W)
Week 7: Bengals (W)
Week 8: Broncos (W)
Week 9: Vikings (W)
Week 10: Chargers (W)
Week 11: Packers (W)
Week 12: Buccaneers (W)
Week 13: Commanders (W)
Week 14: Eagles (W)
Week 15: Cardinals (W)
Week 16: Lions