NFL Survivor/Eliminator Picks: Week 15

We’re at the point in the NFL season where making selections from NFL Survivor/NFL Eliminator gets tough. There are 14 playoff teams; of the teams currently sitting in those 14 playoff spots, I’ve used 12 in previous selections already this season. The only options I have left among current playoff teams are (somehow) the Lions and Steelers, and considering they play, respectively, the Bills and Eagles this week, the conclusion is that I will be selecting a team not currently in playoff position for Week 15.

There’s nothing inherently wrong with that, of course. If Team No. 15 plays Team No. 32, you’d still take Team 15. But it does hurt your confidence when you can’t take a powerhouse. Regardless, that’s the situation we are in.

This is my NFL Survivor pick for Week 15. As always, I’m starting with all 32 teams and eliminating them bit by bit until I get to my final few contenders and, ultimately, my choice of the week.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 15

We are now done with byes. Sad. Made my job easier. But oh well, we press on…

Thursday

Thursdays remain weird. I’m just never going to consider teams in the weirdest of spots.

Los Angeles Rams (@ San Francisco)
San Francisco 49ers (vs. LA Rams)

I wouldn’t have picked either of these teams against one another anyway, but having the game on Thursday just makes my not-picking-them all the stronger.

They’re Too Bad

I feel like by the end of the year I’m going to have to dip back into this group as the best teams become inaccessible to me due to already having picked them. For now, though, this is the class of team where I just wouldn’t confidently pick them to beat anyone.

Atlanta Falcons (@ Las Vegas)
Carolina Panthers (vs. Dallas)
Chicago Bears (@ Minnesota)
Cleveland Browns (vs. Kansas City)
Dallas Cowboys (@ Carolina)
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. NY Jets)
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Atlanta)
New England Patriots (@ Arizona)
New Orleans Saints (vs. Washington)
New York Giants (vs. Baltimore)
New York Jets (@ Jacksonville)
Tennessee Titans (vs. Cincinnati)

If I were in a bind, I could probably get talked into Atlanta or Dallas here, maybe even the Jets. But man, I would shudder doing so, especially with all three of those teams on the road.

So that’s 14 total teams gone, 18 left.

Tough Matchups

The inverse of “They’re Too Bad,” this is where the opponent is too good (or at least too comparable to the team) for me to confidently go against them.

Buffalo Bills (@ Detroit)
Denver Broncos (vs. Indianapolis)
Detroit Lions (vs. Buffalo)
Green Bay Packers (@ Seattle)
Houston Texans (vs. Miami)
Indianapolis Colts (vs. Denver)
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Tampa Bay)
Miami Dolphins (@ Houston)
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Pittsburgh)
Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Philadelphia)
Seattle Seahawks (vs. Green Bay)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ LA Chargers)

That’s 12 more teams out and six left. Now it gets tough!

The Contenders

After the elimination process, we’re down to six teams:

Arizona Cardinals (vs. New England)
Baltimore Ravens (@ NY Giants)
Cincinnati Bengals (@ Tennessee)
Kansas City Chiefs (@ Cleveland)
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Chicago)
Washington Commanders (@ New Orleans)

No broad swaths here, let’s just look at some notes:

• I’ve picked 14 teams this season. Five of them are among my six candidates here. So my personal choice is very limited, but you are of course not obligated to have followed me all this time, so you have more options.
• If the Ravens are still available to you, just take them. I could draw up a scenario where the Chiefs or Vikings lose to the Browns or Bears if I had to. I cannot realistically create a scenario where the Giants beat the Ravens. (Which means it’ll somehow happen, but … just pick them.)
• I do think all six of the candidates I have left win this week, so you can select whichever one excites you the most among those you have left. And, since I only have one option left from this list, ultimately my choice is actually pretty easy.

The Pick

Each week, you’ll get my No. 1 selection and some honorable mentions.

Arizona Cardinals (vs. New England)

Drake Maye is exciting. That is the end of the list of reasons to take the Patriots here. It might be enough! After all, the Cardinals have lost three in a row since starting 6-4 to all but destroy their NFC West title hopes. That said, the three losses were to the Seahawks, Vikings and Seahawks, so there’s no real shame in those losses. There’s no real reason to think the Patriots win this game.

Honorable Mention

Baltimore Ravens (@ NY Giants) — if you didn’t use them when I did
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Chicago) — if you didn’t use them when I did

And, just to give you a backup option if you have been following my picks but want to pivot from the Cardinals:

Atlanta Falcons (@ Las Vegas)

2024 Record: 11-3

Week 1: Bills (W)
Week 2: Ravens (L)
Week 3: Browns (L)
Week 4: Chiefs (W)
Week 5: Seahawks (L)
Week 6: Texans (W)
Week 7: Bengals (W)
Week 8: Broncos (W)
Week 9: Vikings (W)
Week 10: Chargers (W)
Week 11: Packers (W)
Week 12: Buccaneers (W)
Week 13: Commanders (W)
Week 14: Eagles (W)
Week 15: Cardinals