Today’s Best Bets
FTN Staff
Every week, I will provide an update that summarizes our College Football Power Rankings. FTN’s simulation model repeats 10,000 iterations and powers our weekly College Football Power Rankings. The rankings will update at the start of each week as the model collects additional data. If you are looking for weekly picks? Check out our CFB Betting Model, which is updated every Monday for the upcoming slate of games.
We can use these ratings to create a point spread between any two teams in the country on a neutral field. Just subtract the lower team’s rating from the higher-ranked team’s rating. If you compare that number to the spread of a particular game, you can find situations where FTN identifies a betting edge. We will also keep track of teams that are trending up or down, helping to further identify value compared to the public’s perception of media polls.
Let’s take a quick look at where things stand with the FTN Power Rankings as we speed toward the College Football Playoffs on December 20.
| Team | Conference | Record | Proj W-L | Current Rank | Previous | Week Diff | Preseason | Pre Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | BIG10 | 10 - 2 | 10.0 - 2.0 | 1 | 1 | - | 2 | +1 |
| Texas | SEC | 11 - 1 | 11.0 - 1.0 | 2 | 2 | - | 8 | +6 |
| Oregon | BIG10 | 12 - 0 | 12.5 - 0.5 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 6 | +3 |
| Penn State | BIG10 | 11 - 1 | 11.5 - 1.5 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 3 | -1 |
| Alabama | SEC | 9 - 3 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 5 | 7 | +2 | 5 | - |
| Georgia | SEC | 10 - 2 | 10.0 - 2.0 | 6 | 5 | -1 | 1 | -5 |
| Notre Dame | IND | 11 - 1 | 11.0 - 1.0 | 7 | 6 | -1 | 7 | - |
| Tennessee | SEC | 10 - 2 | 10.0 - 2.0 | 8 | 8 | - | 11 | +3 |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 9 - 3 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 9 | 9 | - | 16 | +7 |
| Indiana | BIG10 | 11 - 1 | 11.0 - 1.0 | 10 | 12 | +2 | 74 | +64 |
| South Carolina | SEC | 9 - 3 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 11 | 10 | -1 | 51 | +40 |
| SMU | ACC | 11 - 1 | 11.5 - 1.5 | 12 | 14 | +2 | 32 | +20 |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 13 | 13 | - | 14 | +1 |
| Clemson | ACC | 9 - 3 | 9.5 - 3.5 | 14 | 11 | -3 | 10 | -4 |
| LSU | SEC | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 15 | 15 | - | 15 | - |
| Louisville | ACC | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 16 | 19 | +3 | 23 | +7 |
| Miami FL | ACC | 10 - 2 | 10.0 - 2.0 | 17 | 16 | -1 | 25 | +8 |
| Florida | SEC | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 18 | 17 | -1 | 29 | +11 |
| Auburn | SEC | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 19 | 18 | -1 | 20 | +1 |
| Arizona State | BIG12 | 10 - 2 | 10.0 - 2.0 | 20 | 26 | +6 | 89 | +69 |
| Colorado | BIG12 | 9 - 3 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 21 | 25 | +4 | 75 | +54 |
| Minnesota | BIG10 | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 22 | 32 | +10 | 52 | +30 |
| USC | BIG10 | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 23 | 20 | -3 | 24 | +1 |
| Iowa | BIG10 | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 24 | 21 | -3 | 42 | +18 |
| Kansas State | BIG12 | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 25 | 23 | -2 | 18 | -7 |
| Oklahoma | SEC | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 26 | 22 | -4 | 9 | -17 |
| Iowa State | BIG12 | 10 - 2 | 10.0 - 2.0 | 27 | 24 | -3 | 46 | +19 |
| Missouri | SEC | 9 - 3 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 28 | 27 | -1 | 12 | -16 |
| Arkansas | SEC | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 29 | 29 | - | 43 | +14 |
| Nebraska | BIG10 | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 30 | 33 | +3 | 49 | +19 |
| TCU | BIG12 | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 31 | 30 | -1 | 38 | +7 |
| Michigan | BIG10 | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 32 | 41 | +9 | 4 | -28 |
| Tulane | AMER | 9 - 3 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 33 | 28 | -5 | 58 | +25 |
| Kansas | BIG12 | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 34 | 31 | -3 | 50 | +16 |
| Georgia Tech | ACC | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 35 | 40 | +5 | 53 | +18 |
| BYU | BIG12 | 10 - 2 | 10.0 - 2.0 | 36 | 34 | -2 | 86 | +50 |
| Baylor | BIG12 | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 37 | 39 | +2 | 76 | +39 |
| Washington | BIG10 | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 38 | 38 | - | 13 | -25 |
| Virginia Tech | ACC | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 39 | 42 | +3 | 35 | -4 |
| UCF | BIG12 | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 40 | 35 | -5 | 45 | +5 |
| Boise State | MWST | 11 - 1 | 11.5 - 1.5 | 41 | 36 | -5 | 34 | -7 |
| Texas Tech | BIG12 | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 42 | 46 | +4 | 28 | -14 |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 43 | 44 | +1 | 96 | +53 |
| Wisconsin | BIG10 | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 44 | 37 | -7 | 30 | -14 |
| UNLV | MWST | 10 - 2 | 10.5 - 2.5 | 45 | 49 | +4 | 70 | +25 |
| California | ACC | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 46 | 45 | -1 | 77 | +31 |
| Kentucky | SEC | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 47 | 43 | -4 | 22 | -25 |
| West Virginia | BIG12 | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 48 | 47 | -1 | 31 | -17 |
| Cincinnati | BIG12 | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 49 | 51 | +2 | 41 | -8 |
| Rutgers | BIG10 | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 50 | 57 | +7 | 82 | +32 |
| Duke | ACC | 9 - 3 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 51 | 48 | -3 | 39 | -12 |
| Pittsburgh | ACC | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 52 | 55 | +3 | 54 | +2 |
| Illinois | BIG10 | 9 - 3 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 53 | 50 | -3 | 56 | +3 |
| UCLA | BIG10 | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 54 | 52 | -2 | 44 | -10 |
| Syracuse | ACC | 9 - 3 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 55 | 54 | -1 | 61 | +6 |
| Boston College | ACC | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 56 | 53 | -3 | 68 | +12 |
| North Carolina State | ACC | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 57 | 60 | +3 | 36 | -21 |
| North Carolina | ACC | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 58 | 56 | -2 | 33 | -25 |
| Virginia | ACC | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 59 | 58 | -1 | 81 | +22 |
| Utah | BIG12 | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 60 | 62 | +2 | 17 | -43 |
| Texas State | SBELT | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 61 | 63 | +2 | 87 | +26 |
| Army | AMER | 10 - 1 | 10.6 - 1.4 | 62 | 61 | -1 | 109 | +47 |
| Maryland | BIG10 | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 63 | 59 | -4 | 40 | -23 |
| Mississippi State | SEC | 2 - 10 | 2.0 - 10.0 | 64 | 64 | - | 47 | -17 |
| Memphis | AMER | 10 - 2 | 10.0 - 2.0 | 65 | 68 | +3 | 59 | -6 |
| Michigan State | BIG10 | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 66 | 65 | -1 | 79 | +13 |
| Washington State | PAC12 | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 67 | 67 | - | 37 | -30 |
| Louisiana | SBELT | 10 - 2 | 10.0 - 2.0 | 68 | 70 | +2 | 78 | +10 |
| Oklahoma State | BIG12 | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 69 | 66 | -3 | 26 | -43 |
| James Madison | SBELT | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 70 | 74 | +4 | 55 | -15 |
| Arizona | BIG12 | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 71 | 69 | -2 | 27 | -44 |
| Miami OH | MAC | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 72 | 75 | +3 | 99 | +27 |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 73 | 77 | +4 | 57 | -16 |
| South Alabama | SBELT | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 74 | 71 | -3 | 66 | -8 |
| Navy | AMER | 8 - 3 | 8.4 - 3.6 | 75 | 73 | -2 | 110 | +35 |
| Liberty | CUSA | 8 - 3 | 8.6 - 3.4 | 76 | 72 | -4 | 64 | -12 |
| Fresno State | MWST | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 77 | 80 | +3 | 71 | -6 |
| Marshall | SBELT | 9 - 3 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 78 | 76 | -2 | 73 | -5 |
| UTSA | AMER | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 79 | 79 | - | 48 | -31 |
| Houston | BIG12 | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 80 | 81 | +1 | 69 | -11 |
| Jacksonville State | CUSA | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 81 | 83 | +2 | 93 | +12 |
| Bowling Green | MAC | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 82 | 78 | -4 | 121 | +39 |
| New Mexico | MWST | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 83 | 86 | +3 | 100 | +17 |
| Ohio | MAC | 9 - 3 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 84 | 90 | +6 | 84 | - |
| Western Kentucky | CUSA | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 85 | 85 | - | 90 | +5 |
| Connecticut | IND | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 86 | 82 | -4 | 122 | +36 |
| Old Dominion | SBELT | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 87 | 91 | +4 | 108 | +21 |
| South Florida | AMER | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 88 | 84 | -4 | 91 | +3 |
| East Carolina | AMER | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 89 | 92 | +3 | 94 | +5 |
| Colorado State | MWST | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 90 | 87 | -3 | 104 | +14 |
| Stanford | ACC | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 91 | 89 | -2 | 85 | -6 |
| San Jose State | MWST | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 92 | 88 | -4 | 72 | -20 |
| Northern Illinois | MAC | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 93 | 93 | - | 112 | +19 |
| North Texas | AMER | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 94 | 94 | - | 80 | -14 |
| Air Force | MWST | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 95 | 96 | +1 | 63 | -32 |
| Sam Houston | CUSA | 9 - 3 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 96 | 99 | +3 | 127 | +31 |
| Toledo | MAC | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 97 | 95 | -2 | 67 | -30 |
| Florida State | ACC | 2 - 10 | 2.0 - 10.0 | 98 | 97 | -1 | 21 | -77 |
| Northwestern | BIG10 | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 99 | 102 | +3 | 97 | -2 |
| Utah State | MWST | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 100 | 100 | - | 117 | +17 |
| Georgia Southern | SBELT | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 101 | 101 | - | 83 | -18 |
| Oregon State | PAC12 | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 102 | 103 | +1 | 19 | -83 |
| Appalachian State | SBELT | 5 - 6 | 5.4 - 6.6 | 103 | 98 | -5 | 65 | -38 |
| Coastal Carolina | SBELT | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 104 | 107 | +3 | 95 | -9 |
| Troy | SBELT | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 105 | 108 | +3 | 62 | -43 |
| Hawaii | MWST | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 106 | 105 | -1 | 113 | +7 |
| Nevada | MWST | 3 - 10 | 3.0 - 10.0 | 107 | 106 | -1 | 123 | +16 |
| Rice | AMER | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 108 | 110 | +2 | 103 | -5 |
| Purdue | BIG10 | 1 - 11 | 1.0 - 11.0 | 109 | 104 | -5 | 60 | -49 |
| Arkansas State | SBELT | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 110 | 109 | -1 | 102 | -8 |
| Louisiana Tech | CUSA | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 111 | 114 | +3 | 118 | +7 |
| Western Michigan | MAC | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 112 | 112 | - | 115 | +3 |
| FIU | CUSA | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 113 | 117 | +4 | 133 | +20 |
| Georgia State | SBELT | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 114 | 111 | -3 | 107 | -7 |
| UAB | AMER | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 115 | 116 | +1 | 88 | -27 |
| Wyoming | MWST | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 116 | 113 | -3 | 98 | -18 |
| Charlotte | AMER | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 117 | 115 | -2 | 116 | -1 |
| Buffalo | MAC | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 118 | 120 | +2 | 119 | +1 |
| Louisiana Monroe | SBELT | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 119 | 119 | - | 128 | +9 |
| Florida Atlantic | AMER | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 120 | 121 | +1 | 105 | -15 |
| San Diego State | MWST | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 121 | 118 | -3 | 106 | -15 |
| UMass | IND | 2 - 10 | 2.0 - 10.0 | 122 | 125 | +3 | 129 | +7 |
| Eastern Michigan | MAC | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 123 | 122 | -1 | 124 | +1 |
| Akron | MAC | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 124 | 127 | +3 | 131 | +7 |
| Temple | AMER | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 125 | 124 | -1 | 125 | - |
| UTEP | CUSA | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 126 | 129 | +3 | 130 | +4 |
| Central Michigan | MAC | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 127 | 123 | -4 | 120 | -7 |
| Ball State | MAC | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 128 | 126 | -2 | 126 | -2 |
| New Mexico State | CUSA | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 129 | 128 | -1 | 92 | -37 |
| Middle Tennessee | CUSA | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 130 | 130 | - | 114 | -16 |
| Tulsa | AMER | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 131 | 131 | - | 111 | -20 |
| Southern Miss | SBELT | 1 - 11 | 1.0 - 11.0 | 132 | 133 | +1 | 101 | -31 |
| Kennesaw State | CUSA | 2 - 10 | 2.0 - 10.0 | 133 | 132 | -1 | 134 | +1 |
| Kent State | MAC | 0 - 12 | 0.0 - 12.0 | 134 | 134 | - | 132 | -2 |
| Conference |
Ohio State Buckeyes
AP Ranking: 7
FTN Power Ranking: 1
Change: None
Our rankings still have Ohio State as the best team in the country, projecting the Buckeyes as a favorite on a neutral field over every other team. The loss at home to Michigan will simply create betting value. Ohio State carries the highest probability of winning the College Football Playoff, per our CFP Simulations, remaining at 32.7%. The objectivity of the FTN Power Rankings is unaffected by recency bias. Ohio State remains the best team in the country.
Oregon Ducks
AP Ranking: 1
FTN Power Ranking: 3
Change: +1
Oregon has started to close the gap on the other contenders, climbing three spots in our rankings over the last two weeks. The Ducks are a perfect 12-0 after their 49-21 thrashing of Washington on Saturday. Oregon hosts No. 4 Penn State on Saturday, a game with a mammoth impact on the AP Poll, playoff seeds and the FTN Power Rankings.
Alabama Crimson Tide
AP Ranking: 11
FTN Power Ranking: 5
Change: +2
Alabama remains on the College Football Playoff bubble but projects for the sixth-best chance to win the National Championship if it snuck in. Alabama’s 7.8% of winning the title, per our simulations, ranks only behind Ohio State, Texas, Oregon, Georgia and Penn State. The Tide’s wins over Georgia and at LSU loom large, but can they pass Arizona State or SMU?
Indiana Hoosiers
AP Ranking: 11
FTN Power Ranking: 10
Change: +2
Indiana rebounded well with a 66-0 drubbing of Purdue to end the regular season. The Hoosiers must sit and wait for the seeds to be announced on December 10. The Hoosiers have produced a historic season, finishing 11-1, with their only loss at Ohio State. It has been a superb first season by head coach Curt Cignetti, which should result in a berth in the College Football Playoffs. Due to its mediocre strength of schedule, we only project Indiana with a 1% chance of taking home the title.
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