NFL Splits Tool, Week 13: Colts Down Downs

Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to evaluate different teams, monitoring some of the most critical situations around the league.

The Splits Tool is a great way to evaluate the impact of different situations and environmental factors by comparing and contrasting historical data based on pre-game spreads/totals, locations, coaching changes, current and former teammates, etc. It’s a must-have for serious fantasy football managers and sports betters, especially when it comes to making difficult start/sit decisions or trying to gain an edge against the books.

Josh Downs Missing in Action

The transition from Joe Flacco back to Anthony Richardson has yielded mixed results for the Colts, beginning with a 28-27 upset victory on the road against the Jets, followed by a 24-6 beatdown by the Lions at home. As has been the case for most of the season, the Colts couldn’t get anything going through the air with Richardson, who continues to struggle as a passer, completing less than 40% of his dropbacks (11-of-28, 39.3%) for 172 scoreless yards, finishing with a 60.4 passer rating. To make matters worse, Josh Downs also exited the game with a shoulder injury and has been ruled out for Week 13. Downs missed the first two games of the season with an ankle injury, but he’s been the clear No. 1 when available, leading the team with a 23.6% target share from Week 3 on.

Here’s what that might mean for some of the team’s other weapons in Week 13.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR

Michael Pittman Jr. hasn’t been nearly the same target dominator as he was last season, taking a clear back seat to Downs and playing through a nagging back injury.

He led the team with a 26.8% target share in Weeks 1-2 but had no more than 31 yards in both games without Downs, averaging 3.5 grabs on 7.5 targets for 26 scoreless yards.

Alec Pierce, WR

Alec Pierce has taken a big step forward in his second season, but he’s been hard to trust for fantasy given his unpredictable nature of scoring with a healthy receiving core. Although it is a small sample, Pierce was far and away the most productive pass catcher on the Colts without Josh Downs, leading the team with 30.9% air yard share, averaging four receptions on five targets for 90.5 yards and a touchdown.

Adonai Mitchell, WR

Colts second-round rookie Adonai Mitchell has had trouble getting on the field but has flashed in spurts when given the opportunity. Without Josh Downs in Weeks 1-2, Mitchell took over as the third receiver, running a route on 66% of Anthony Richardson’s dropbacks, but caught just one ball on eight targets for 16 yards through two games.