First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
The Sims are here! Naturally, they’ll be a big part of this NFL DFS article moving forward. They are especially useful at finding the players who provide the most leverage over the chalk. Of course, we’ll also continue to look for players who are simply under-rostered.
Rarely will we find players who are under-rostered in an obviously great matchup. Not never, but rarely. If a player is facing a bad defense, with a high team total, everyone knows that. These days, in order to find a great matchup that no one else knows about, we often have to go deep into the data with StatsHub — these plays will be highlighted as StatsHub Specials. Or, we can rely on the GPP Scores (found on the ownership page or in the optimizer) to tell us who’s under-rostered for myriad other reasons. In either case, here are my Top 10 plays under 10%.
10 Under 10% for DFS Week 14
1. A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles — StatsHub Special
A.J. Brown has the best GPP Score on the slate, and he’s simming extremely well. This should come as no surprise with Saquon Barkley’s gargantuan price tag and rostership in a game where the Eagles’ starters might only play three quarters of football.
If Brown dominates those three quarters, Barkley will have a tough time getting there himself. And as good as the matchup is for Barkley, it’s just as good for Brown. Carolina boosts opposing WR production by 12% and they’re among the league-leaders in single-high rate. They haven’t given up a ton of deep passing yards (primarily because teams haven’t had to throw deep against them), but they’ve allowed five TDs on deep passes, eighth most in the league. Mike Evans just shredded this defense, and Brown can do the same … at like 3% rostership.
2. Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
As A.J. Brown goes, so does Jalen Hurts And like Brown, Hurts can also steal TDs from Barkley. It’s worth noting that Hurts’ projection is right in line with Barkley’s, and he’s created similar separation from the rest of the QBs as Barkley and Alvin Kamara have from the other RBs.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Excepteur sint occaecat cupidatat non proident, sunt in culpa qui officia deserunt mollit anim id est laborum. "Sed ut perspiciatis unde omnis iste natus error sit voluptatem accusantium doloremque laudantium, totam rem aperiam, eaque ipsa quae ab illo inventore veritatis et quasi architecto beatae vitae dicta sunt explicabo. Nemo enim ipsam voluptatem quia voluptas sit aspernatur aut odit aut fugit, sed quia consequuntur magni dolores eos qui ratione voluptatem sequi nesciunt. Neque porro quisquam est, qui dolorem ipsum quia dolor sit amet, consectetur, adipisci velit, sed quia non numquam eius modi tempora incidunt ut labore et dolore magnam aliquam quaerat voluptatem.
