Fantasy Football Numbers to Know: Week 13

Data plays a massive role in fantasy football. Especially for massive dorks like me who analyze this silly game every single day. And with all of the incredible data we have available at FTN Fantasy, it makes sense to utilize that information to help with fantasy football decisions.

So every Friday, I’ll run through some of my favorite stats for the week, helping you identify some of the best matchups in fantasy football. Be sure to check out the incredible FTN Fantasy StatsHub for a deep dive of all of our in-depth analytics.

Numbers to Know for Fantasy Football Week 13

1. Calvin Ridley Has Seen 36.7% of Tennessee’s First-Read Targets Since Week 6

That is good for the sixth-highest rate in all of football, as the Titans have made getting Ridley the ball a clear point of emphasis since their bye week. Of course, that has also coincided with the trade of DeAndre Hopkins — Ridley is now averaging around nine targets per game since Hopkins was dealt. Ridley is also dominating the downfield targets, leading the league in air yards per route run since Week 6 (4.3), while his 49.4% air yards share also comfortably leads the league during that stretch. It is hard to keep Ridley on benches going forward, especially if the Washington Commanders are without Marshon Lattimore again. The Commanders are surrendering 80.8 receiving yards per game to opposing lead wideouts, the fourth most in the league.

2. C.J. Stroud Leads the NFL with 100 Dropbacks on 3rd and Long

CHARLOTTE, NC - OCTOBER 29: C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans runs with the ball during a football game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina on Oct 29, 2023. (Photo by David Jensen/Icon Sportswire) — CHARLOTTE, NC – OCTOBER 29: C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans runs with the ball during a football game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina on Oct 29, 2023. (Photo by David Jensen/Icon Sportswire)

The next closest is Caleb Williams, who had 83 entering Thursday’s games. Houston’s offense has underwhelmed this season, largely due to the fact that they are so often so far behind the sticks. Between a run-heavy early down scheme and a bad offensive line that is leading to sacks, the Texans are facing an average of 13.8 third downs per game, the fourth-most in the league. Williams has also been under pressure on 36.3% of his dropbacks, a top-five rate among qualified quarterbacks. Fortunately, he faces a Jacksonville defense that not only generates pressure at the league’s fourth-lowest rate (22.2%), but also allows a 41.5% success rate on third and longs, the sixth-worst mark in the league.

Don’t look now, but Sutton has been lights out as of late, ranking as fantasy’s WR2 since Week 8 behind only Ja’Marr Chase. He’s averaging 20.8 PPR points per game, posting three top-10 finishes during that span. The tremendous play of Bo Nix has certainly helped, but Sutton continues to show he’s one of the most underrated wideouts in the game. He has an interesting matchup this week against a solid Cleveland pass defense, though they will surrender some explosive plays. The Browns play single-high coverage 65.3% of the time, the second-highest rate in football. Sutton, meanwhile, is flirting with a 25% target share when facing single-high, while sporting a 12.1-yard aDOT and 3.2 air yards per route run.

4. Chase Brown Has Handled 86.1% of Cincinnati’s Rush Attempts Since Week 9

That is easily the highest rate in the league, as Brown has operated as the Bengals’ clear lead back since Zack Moss went down. Over his past three games, Brown is averaging a gaudy 27 touches and 7.6 targets per game. The touches per game obviously lead the league during that span, but the targets quietly rank 29th in all of football, too. He’s also logged over 81% of the snaps during this stretch, making him a weekly top-12 fantasy running back, regardless of matchup.

5. Matthew Stafford Is Averaging 10 More Fantasy Points Per Game with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in the Lineup

INGLEWOOD, CA - SEPTEMBER 12: Matthew Stafford #9 of the Rams during an NFL game between the Chicago Bears and the Los Angeles Rams on September 12, 2021, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Icon Sportswire) — INGLEWOOD, CA – SEPTEMBER 12: Matthew Stafford #9 of the Rams during an NFL game between the Chicago Bears and the Los Angeles Rams on September 12, 2021, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Icon Sportswire)

Developing story: Quarterback better when his top two wideouts are on the field. Duh. But the difference has been drastic, as Stafford is also averaging 287.5 passing yards per game with Kupp and Nacua healthy, compared to just 215 without his All-Pro wide receivers. With both active every game since Week 8, Stafford has posted fantasy finishes of QB5, QB13, QB20, QB5 and QB8 and when this offense is at full strength, they hover around 30 points per game, dating back to last season. Consider Stafford a low-end QB1 for the time being.