Week 13 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

All good things must come to an end. 

Our scalding-hot streak of three straight moneyline underdog hits ended in Week 12 with the Colts unable to stop the Detroit Lions’ dominance. Time to start a new streak in Week 13. 

Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. These are high-risk plays for a reason — they will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. 

There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the week. Here’s a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Week 13 of the 2024 season.

Week 13 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Falcons +2 vs. Chargers 

(+110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Monday night loss by the Chargers was very revealing. Without J.K. Dobbins on the field, Los Angeles is very limited. Rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey has been exceptional, but he is not an alpha receiver. We all witnessed the struggles of Quentin Johnston, and tight end Will Dissly is best known for his blocking ability. With Dobbins unlikely to play this week, I’m backing the Atlanta Falcons as slight home underdogs. 

Atlanta will be well-rested coming off the bye week and brings a versatile offense that will challenge the Chargers. Running back Bijan Robinson has been superb as a runner and receiver, particularly at home. The dynamic rusher has caught 24 of his 25 targets at home, and currently ranks third among all running backs with 359 receiving yards. Los Angeles has allowed the third-most running back receptions (102) and third-most receiving yards (771) to the position. The Chargers are also vulnerable on the ground, ranking just 20th in run defense DVOA. The Falcons strengths attack the weakest part of the Chargers defense.  

On offense, the Falcons should be able to stymie a Falcons attack without a significant playmaker. Atlanta doesn’t generate pressure but has experienced an unfortunate stretch of turnover luck. The Falcons have a -3 turnover ratio through their 11 games, with the Chargers’ fortunes producing a +11 ratio. With Gus Edwards as the lead running back, the Falcons defense will be able to focus on limiting the Chargers rushing attack with a much lesser threat of running back receiving yardage without Dobbins. The Los Angeles wideouts struggle to gain separation, with Ladd McConkey ranked 53rd in Step of Separation Rate, the highest-ranked Los Angeles wideout. This is not the offensive structure that can take advantage of the Falcons defense. 

Coming off a short week while dealing with injuries, I’ll take the Falcons as a slight home underdog to get our ML column back to its winning ways. 

Risk

1 Unit to Win 1.10 Units