Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
There’s no rush quite like the rush of being right about a player no one else wanted. “Pure elation” is the only way to describe the feeling of watching your 3% owned receiver catch his second TD on the way to 150 yards. We are forever chasing this feeling in DFS, but it’s not just about the feeling. Contrarian upside plays are the keys to GPP takedowns. The difficulty is finding them.
Rarely will we find players who are under-rostered in an obviously great matchup. Not never, but rarely. If a player is facing a bad defense, with a high team total, everyone knows that. These days, in order to find a great matchup that no one else knows about, we often have to go deep into the data with StatsHub — these plays will be highlighted as StatsHub Specials. Or, we can rely on the GPP Scores (found on the ownership page or in the optimizer) to tell us who’s under-rostered for myriad other reasons. In either case, here are my Top 10 plays under 10%.
10 Under 10% for DFS Week 11
1. Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots — StatsHub Special
Chalk stacks in a contrarian way. Most of the time, that means using a popular QB and pairing him with a contrarian option or two. Sometimes, like with New England this week, it means taking a chalky value or two and turning them into a stack. Kayshon Boutte will be super popular, for good reason, as Los Angeles struggles with explosive passes and Boutte has surged to a WR1 classification in the offense.
It’s also a great spot for Hunter Henry, and there aren’t many double-stacks consisting of two sub-$4k players with genuine upside (they’re literally the top two options in the passing game).
2. Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions — StatsHub Special
Jacksonville leads the league in man coverage, and while they don’t run much single-high compared to the rest of the league, they play man coverage over 90% of the time when they play single-high (which is still about half the time). It’s Jameson Williams (and Sam LaPorta) who leads the team in yards per route run against these types of coverages, not Amon-Ra St. Brown We know Williams has a great ceiling for his price tag, and this is the exact kind of matchup where we’re likely to see it.
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