Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s Chase Brown mega chalk week in NFL DFS. Everything is setup for the public to jam him in their lineups:
- Zack Moss is likely out, and they’ve used that duo exclusively, so everyone imagines a 100% snap rate instead of them likely incorporating Trayveon Williams or Kendall Milton some as well.
- The Bengals are sizable favorites, which of course means they’ll lead all game and only run the ball in the second half.
- He is $5,900 so he’s got the sub-$6k cheap discount, kind of like the $1 menu where everything is $0.99 (I guess “under $2 menu with everything $1.99,” because of inflation).
With Chase Brown megachalk inevitable, I either need to eat it some or fade it. I’m likely fading it heavily. Moss is averaging about 5 fantasy points the last three games, so I don’t think him being out really changes a whole lot. More than anything, that’s how I tend to look at replacement value chalk and whether I want to tail it as good chalk.
I’ll likely have Brown on a lineup or two but far, far less than the public. I’m going about this mega chalk fade in a few ways:
- There are a couple running backs around his price level I like who I am pivoting toward, but then my lineup sometimes looks a bit too similar to the Chase Brown ones. I really have to hope my sub-$6k running back pivots outperform Brown.
- I am doing expensive running back and cheaper elsewhere, though there aren’t a lot of cheap wide receivers I really like
- I’m playing for less this week because I’ll take my contrarian shots and if they hit, great. If not, on to next week where it may be less megachalk failing dependent. It strikes me as a win big or lose everything week (which often means I’ll somehow miraculously break even).
I’m knocking out this article Saturday morning and do not update my articles. I may change my mind on certain players. If so, I’ll post my thoughts in the Discord Sunday morning as well as talk about the slate like usual with Alex Sunday morning starting at 10 a.m. ET.
Quarterback
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