Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to FAAB Whisperer – my weekly free agent bidding and waivers projection column. You may use these FAAB projections in conjunction with Nelson Sousa’s FAAB sheet – Nelson’s Notebook. Both will focus primarily on mid to high-stakes formats such as NFFC and FFPC.
This column will be published every Wednesday morning of the regular season. I’ll break down the top FAAB targets at each position (QB, WR, RB, TE, DST, TK) with a priority order/ranking and a bid amount range for each player. Bid ranges will be based on a starting FAAB of $1,000.
NFFC and FFPC run their first FAAB Wednesdays (10 p.m. ET). NFFC’s second run is Saturday evenings (10 p.m.) and FFPC’s is Sunday mornings (10 a.m.).
I’ll use the $350 NFFC Online Championship (aka, the OC) as the basis for our weekly data, specifically the %-Rostered of each player. The $350 mid-stakes contest is the perfect framework as they inspire an extra level of seriousness and accountability from entrants, thereby providing a more realistic grasp of the market and projected bid results. Using the OC also allows for a large enough sample to draw from as there will be over 400 leagues (5,000 teams) in this national contest.
Wednesday Update
Players Added:
- Tua Tagovailoa (QB/MIA) – Practice window opened; expected to start vs. ARZ in Week 8. Should be 100% rostered, but will likely be overpaid for in FAAB. My expectations ROS are low.
- Tyler Boyd (WR/TEN) – Presumed target volume leader in Tennessee with D’Andre Hopkins traded to KC.
- Adam Thielen (WR/CAR) – His 21-day practice window has opened. Low priority target in this WR-heavy period.
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (WR/TEN) – Dollar only, at the end of bid groups if dropping Aiyuk or Godwin. Slight value uptick with Hopkins traded.
- Keaton Mitchell (RB/BAL) – Designated to return from PUP list this week. Stash-only value for now. Value and startability factor would only be derived from a Derrick Henry or Justice Hill long-term injury.
Bid Ranges raised:
Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall/Jalen McMillan, Cedric Tillman, Sterling Shepard
Note that I am likely under in my bid ranges for Jennings and McMillan. Jennings will likely have an AWB > $300 and McMillan > $200. If you have the $ and are desperate, you should place competitive bids.
Week 7 Overview
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