Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
By Week 4, the lowest-hanging fruit of the fantasy football waiver wire has all been picked. That just means you have to dig a little deeper to find hidden gems, gambling on some positive regression and paying attention to the positive matchups that are coming up on the schedule. Staying one step ahead of the game is how we found Chuba Hubbard and Jauan Jennings before their breakout Week 3 games. Let’s see if we can’t keep that momentum up and grab the next big fantasy breakout before everyone piles onto the waiver wire looking for them.
This Waiver Wire Watchlist column uses Aaron Schatz’s DVOA metrics and FTN’s other advanced statistics and charting data to identify players whose short-term matchups make them compelling streamers and whose workload and efficiency trends have them poised for fantasy breakouts. And it aims to identify them a week before their breakouts. It recommended J.K. Dobbins, Isaiah Likely and Andrei Iosivas before their breakout weeks. So why exhaust your FAAB or waiver priority to win the next Dobbins or Likely when you can add him now for free?
Reminder: This list was put together in the lead-in to Week 4, looking forward to the players who could be popular waiver wire targets ahead of Week 5. If you have a roster spot to play with, these are free agent options you could grab early to beat the waiver buzz.
All of these players are below 50% rostership on one of ESPN or Yahoo unless otherwise specified.
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks (28%/43%)
Reason: Positive Regression
Time Frame: Weeks 4-7
The touchdowns will come! Smith has been his usual efficient self this season, ranking 10th in both DYAR and DVOA. He’s been accurate and on-point, leading the league with an 87.2% adjusted completion percentage and fifth with an 81.4% accuracy rate. In other words, he’s been playing at his usual levels. But his touchdown numbers are way down – just three passing scores through three weeks, or a touchdown percentage of 2.9%. Smith’s been at least 4.0% in every season in Seattle, and usually tops 5%. There’s no real reason to think Smith has regressed as a touchdown threat; it’s more that he’s only had five pass attempts in the red zone this season. That should change going forward, and it’s important to pick him up now before he has a three-touchdown day and becomes a coveted waiver-wire pick.
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