NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
There’s no rush quite like the rush of being right about a player no one else wanted in DFS. “Pure elation” is the only way to describe the feeling of watching your 3% rostered receiver catch his second TD on the way to 150 yards. We are forever chasing this feeling in DFS, but it’s not just about the feeling. Contrarian upside plays are the keys to GPP takedowns. The difficulty is finding them.
Rarely will we find players who are under-rostered in an obviously great matchup. Not never, but rarely. If a player is facing a bad defense, with a high team total, everyone knows that. These days, in order to find a great matchup no one else knows about, we often have to go deep into the data with StatsHub — these plays will be highlighted as StatsHub Specials. Or, we can rely on the GPP Scores (found on the ownership page or in the optimizer) to tell us who’s under-rostered for myriad other reasons. In either case, here are my top 10 plays under 10% for Week 3:
10 Under 10% for DFS Week 3
1. Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans
This is a hopeful one because there’s definitely a chance he’ll be too popular to qualify. First, the role has been great. Tyjae Spears has been a distant second to Tony Pollard, and Pollard is getting both the bulk of the carries and plenty of looks in the passing game. Pollard also has 75% of the red zone carries so far for Tennessee.
Second, the production has been promising. His avoided tackle rate is up, he’s already had five explosive runs (only 21 all last season), and most importantly — he’s done this against two elite defenses (CHI and NYJ).
Green Bay is one of the best RB matchups, just as they were a year ago. They’re already 30th in second-level yards and 29th in open field yards allowed. That means chunk plays!
Lastly, Pollard is a direct pivot off Zach Charbonnet, who I think is going to end up more popular than he’s already projected to be and thus will have one of the worst GPP Scores on the slate.
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