Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The last domino of the NFL offseason has fallen. Teams have gone through training camp and played their preseason games. The 2024 NFL season is officially here.
Fantasy drafts have been going on over the last few weeks with the NFL set to kick off Thursday. However, this is also an excellent time for reflection. There is a ton of content produced during the NFL offseason and we won’t know how most of it goes until the end of the 2024 season. However, back in January, FTN looked at the biggest needs for each AFC and NFC team. That is something we can evaluate.
Teams spend the entire offseason trying to optimize their rosters and fill the biggest gaps on their team in pursuit of a Super Bowl. Check out the NFC Needs Revisited below. Saturday, we covered the AFC.
Offseason Team Needs Revisited: NFC
Arizona Cardinals
In January: Acquire a real WR1 for the offense
Arizona desperately needed a top-end wide receiver to raise the floor of their passing attack. Last season, the team’s leading receiver was second-year tight end Trey McBride (106 targets, 81 receptions for 825 yards and three touchdowns). The team’s second (Marquise Brown) and third (Rondale Moore) receivers are no longer with the team.
The Cardinals used the draft to add their hopeful WR1, drafting Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. as their top receiver. Harrison posted two straight seasons with 67+ receptions, 1,200 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns with the Buckeyes. He has the size, speed and collegiate production that suggests he can be an elite wide receiver at the NFL level, but we haven’t seen it through the preseason due to the starters resting.
If Harrison is as good as billed, then the rest of the team’s wide receiver room (Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch and Zay Jones) will certainly benefit. At the very least, the team invested premium draft capital into the position, which checks a major box for the team.
Grade: A (Technically Incomplete, but credit for the investment)
Atlanta Falcons
In January: Find a starting quarterback
Atlanta has heavily invested in their offense over the last few seasons. The Falcons invested three top-10 picks in offensive weapons (Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson). Three of the team’s offensive linemen (Jake Matthews, Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary) are first-round draft picks. The team’s left guard (Matthew Bergeron) was a second-round pick in 2023. Center Drew Dalman was a fourth-round pick but has developed into one of the top centers in the NFL.
The hope was that the heavy investment in ancillary talent would set up a situation where any quarterback could thrive. Unfortunately, 2023 proved that wasn’t necessarily the case.
Desmond Ridder was efficient (64.2% completion percentage) last season but didn’t have the talent to turn that efficiency into production (2,836 yards with 12 touchdowns and 12 interceptions) in 13 games started. Taylor Heinicke started four games, completing 54.4% of his passes for 890 yards and five touchdowns with four interceptions.
Atlanta cleared out the coaching staff this offseason and poured in assets to improve their quarterback room to take advantage of their offensive pieces. Atlanta gave Kirk Cousins a four-year, $180 million contract coming off an Achilles tear. Cousins had three straight seasons with 4,000 passing yards and at least 29 passing touchdowns (and was on his way to that again in 2023) before being injured.
The Falcons also shocked everyone when they selected Michael Penix Jr. in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Penix had his injury woes in college but recovered during his final two seasons at Washington. In his final two collegiate seasons, he posted consecutive years with 4,600+ passing yards and threw for 67 touchdowns and 19 interceptions.
Not only did Atlanta pour financial resources into the position, but they also used a premium draft asset to give insurance in case their Plan A went sideways. Nobody can claim that Atlanta didn’t put themselves in a better quarterback situation heading into 2024 as they were in in 2023.
Grade: A+
Carolina Panthers
In January: Build up the OL
The Panthers offensive line was atrocious in 2023. Nine different players played at least 70 snaps due to injuries. That group gave up a combined to surrender 37 sacks and 240 pressures. That is less than ideal for the development of a small rookie quarterback whose game isn’t rooted in mobility.
Carolina desperately needed to upgrade their offensive line (especially on the interior) to give young quarterback Bryce Young a chance to succeed. For the most part, the Panthers were up to the challenge.
The Panthers used free agency to add interior starters like left guard Damien Lewis and right guard Robert Hunt. They also added a great depth swing tackle in Yosh Nijman. Lewis logged at least 696 snaps per season in his first four years with the Seahawks, allowing at least three sacks and 20 pressures in three of four years. Hunt was a dominant guard during his last season with the Dolphins (and has been consistently good otherwise) but struggled through lower body injuries that limited him to just 10 games. These moves allow Carolina to move Austin Corbett to center, a position he’s never played before after he struggled to work back from a 2022 injury last season.
Ultimately, this unit is far more talented than the 2023 version of the Panthers’ offensive line. However, there are still plenty of questions in the trenches for Carolina. Can Damien Lewis improve his play? Was Robert Hunt a flash in the pan? Can former top-10 draft pick Ikem Ekwonu figure out pass protection (17 sacks and 71 pressures in two seasons)?
The group is certainly better, but outside of Hunt, this group didn’t add any impact talent in the draft or free agency thanks to the multitude of other holes that needed to be filled on the roster.
Grade: B
Chicago Bears
In January: Add a complement to DJ Moore to the passing attack
It was a foregone conclusion that the Bears were going to draft Caleb Williams despite the pleading of Justin Fields stans on social media. To help the rookie succeed, Chicago needed to upgrade the skill players around him to speed up his acclimation to the NFL.
Chicago entered the 2023 offseason with one surefire stud in DJ Moore, who was acquired by Chicago for their first overall pick in 2023. Moore was amazing during his first season in Chicago, finishing with 96 receptions on 136 targets for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns while catching passes from Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent. The Bears also returned Cole Kmet at tight end (90 targets, 73 receptions, 719 yards and six touchdowns), but little else.
First, the Bears traded a 2024 fourth-round pick for veteran receiver Keenan Allen. Allen produced 108 receptions on 150 targets for 1,243 yards and seven touchdowns in 13 games for the Chargers while operating as the team’s primary receiver thanks to an array of injuries. The Bears would have gotten a solid grade if that was the only move they made.
However, the next move they made pushes their grade to another level.
Chicago was happy to sit with the ninth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to select Washington’s Rome Odunze. The rookie has the best combination of size and speed in Chicago’s wide receiver room and coming off consecutive collegiate seasons with at least 75 receptions, 1,100 receiving yards and seven receiving touchdowns.
Adding both Allen and Odunze to Moore gives Caleb Williams one of the best wide receiver rooms in the NFL heading into his rookie season.
Grade: A+
Dallas Cowboys
In January: Find an impact player at running back
The Cowboys let Tony Pollard walk in free agency after an inconsistent 2023 season coming off his season-ending ankle injury during the 2022 playoffs. Pollard played in all 17 games last year but lacked his signature explosiveness. His counting stats were fine (252 carries for 1,005 yards and six touchdowns with 55 receptions for 311 yards), but far from impactful in both real life and fantasy football. According to FTN’s StatsHub, Pollard was 26th in the NFL in avoided tackle rate (17.9%) and 34th in explosive run rate (8.3%).
Dallas went into the offseason with just Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn on the depth chart, which made them a favorite to target an explosive running back to lead the backfield in the draft or free agency. That did not come to fruition.
The Cowboys elected not to take a running back during the draft and instead brought dusty veterans like Ezekiel Elliott and Royce Freeman to the team. Zeke and Dowdle will likely form a one-two punch in the backfield unless the team brings in another player after rosters are cut down before the regular season.
None of the players listed above can be considered impact players and neither will a player that doesn’t make another team’s 53-man roster. The Cowboys certainly addressed the position this offseason, but we are a long way from anybody being “impactful”
Grade: F
Detroit Lions
In January: Acquire another receiver
Detroit’s offensive identity is built upon a strong offensive line, a versatile rushing attack and Jared Goff making quick, high-efficiency throws. The Lions 2023 passing attack flowed through Amon-Ra St. Brown (164 targets) and Sam LaPorta (120 targets). Only one other player (Jahmyr Gibbs) had more than 65 targets on the team.
The Lions are coming off a fantastic season, but the popular theory was that the team needed to add another receiving weapon to take the next step towards winning a Super Bowl. 2022 first-round pick Jameson Williams has played in just 18 games through two seasons due to injuries and a suspension, making a minimal impact (25 receptions on 51 targets for 395 yards and three touchdowns) despite his lofty draft status.
Detroit elected to use the draft to bolster their defense and add depth to their offensive line, leaving them with Jameson Williams, Kalif Raymond and Donovan Peoples-Jones as the receivers competing for playing time across from Amon-Ra St. Brown. By all accounts, Williams has taken a big step before his third season, which certainly could open up the offense.
The Lions decided to roll with what they have in the receiving corps heading into 2024. If Jameson Williams can start to convert his potential into production, this offense will be just fine. If not, Detroit will once again flow through the middle of the field.
Grade: F
Green Bay Packers
In January: Acquire a running back to complement Aaron Jones
This need certainly wasn’t wrong and was addressed. However, it came at the expense of Aaron Jones, who was released during the offseason.
Green Bay was aggressive in addressing their backfield this offseason by re-signing A.J. Dillon, throwing big money (4 years, $48 million) at Josh Jacobs in free agency and using a third-round pick on MarShawn Lloyd. Jacobs played just 13 games in 2023 and had an overall down season (233 carries for 805 yards and six touchdowns) but is just one year removed from leading the NFL in rushing. Lloyd is an exciting rookie who had 116 carries for 820 yards and nine touchdowns during his lone season at the University of Southern California.
Jacobs should dominate touches in this backfield given his three-down skillset, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Lloyd gets healthy (he suffered a hamstring injury during training camp) and starts to eat into the pass-catching role in this backfield.
The Packers didn’t build around Aaron Jones but invested heavily to improve his production (and questionable health) instead.
Grade: A
Los Angeles Rams
In January: Add a field-stretching tight end
The Rams offense will center around the run game once again in 2024, but the passing attack should also produce plenty of fantasy-relevant players.
Puka Nacua is coming off the most productive rookie season ever for a wide receiver (105 receptions for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns). Cooper Kupp is healthy and looks back to his normal self in camp after another injury-plagued season in 2023 (12 games played, 59 receptions for 737 yards and five touchdowns). Historically, the third prong of the passing attack has been Tyler Higbee in the passing attack. However, Higbee suffered an ACL and MCL tear during the team’s playoff game.
Higbee’s injury gives the Rams a chance to try and pair more of a vertical threat at the tight end position to further expand their passing attack. The Rams were tied heavily to Brock Bowers but ultimately weren’t able to secure a trade-up to get him. That leaves the team with Davis Allen and free agent Colby Parkinson at tight end.
Parkinson is interesting (both in real life and fantasy) despite underwhelming receiving production in his four seasons with Seattle (57 receptions for 618 yards and four touchdowns). However, he doesn’t fit the bill of a vertical tight-end threat.
Grade: C-
Minnesota Vikings
In January: Figure out the quarterback position
Great job to the Vikings for pouring both free-agent money and premium draft capital into the quarterback position. Unfortunately, the NFL preseason cost them a chance to see rookie J.J. McCarthy in live action in 2024.
McCarthy needed time to develop after attempting just 713 pass attempts during his three seasons with Michigan. There were some flashes of his ability translating to the NFL in his lone preseason game (188 passing yards and two touchdowns) and also signs that he needed more experience (one interception). Unfortunately, McCarthy suffered a torn meniscus in the game that will put him out of action for all of 2024.
That leaves veteran journeyman Sam Darnold as the starter after a season of development with the San Francisco 49ers. Darnold is still just 27 years old and looked good in his last extended starters with the Panthers in 2022 (six starts, 1,143 yards and seven touchdowns with one interception).
Minnesota hoped to use Darnold as a bridge to McCarthy throughout the season, but now they have to lean on Darnold for the entire season. We will truly see if Kevin O’Connell’s offense is quarterback-proof in 2024.
Grade: A for execution, B- thanks to a lost season of development for McCarthy
New Orleans Saints
In January: Build up the OL
The Saints need a strong offensive line with Derek Carr under center. Carr was able to overcome the unit’s struggles in 2023 (74.1% completion rate under pressure), but sticking to that process is playing with fire.
New Orleans allowed just 25 sacks in 2023 but did surrender 192 pressures. The continued struggles of Trevor Penning, who was benched after 417 snaps, loom large. Right tackle Ryan Ramczyk has a degenerative knee issue and will miss the entire season. Longtime starting guard (and 2023 left tackle) Andrus Peat left in free agency.
The Saints will hope that Penning will perform better at right tackle. The returns in the preseason have been underwhelming. The left guard will be manned by Lucas Patrick coming off an inconsistent season with Chicago. New Orleans did use their 2024 first-round pick on right tackle Taliese Fuaga but is flipping him to the left side. It is a curious choice given his proficiency as a run blocker and struggles in protection.
The heavy investment in the tackle position with Fuaga is nice, but this is a team that is looking at potential downgrades at three positions in 2024. The rookie has to be a cornerstone piece of the franchise quickly, which is a considerable risk.
Grade: C+
New York Giants
In January: Pick a position
2023 was not a banner year for the Giants offense. Things were even worse with an offensive line still struggling to block (45 sacks allowed), a highly paid quarterback (Daniel Jones) coming off an ACL tear with minimal pass-game talent and his best weapon (Saquon Barkley) heading to free agency.
Any move the Giants made this offseason was sure to serve as an upgrade. Heading into 2024, the Giants do have some pieces that could move the needle if Daniel Jones can function in Brian Daboll’s offense.
New York got their most exciting weapon, Malik Nabers, with the fifth sixth pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. Nabers is coming off 89 receptions for 1,569 yards and 14 touchdowns season with LSU and immediately improves the receiver group. The Giants were also proactive in trying to upgrade the offensive line, signing guards Jon Runyan and Greg Van Roten along with tackle Jermaine Eluemunor.
Barkley left in free agency, but his departure was addressed in both free agency (Devin Singletary) and the draft (Tyrone Tracy Jr.). Neither player is close to the talent of Saquon Barkley, but the hope is the two of them can provide production out of the backfield.
Will the Giants be a good football team in 2024? Probably not.
But this team did upgrade at least two groups within their offense heading into the season. And that deserves some credit.
Grade: B
Philadelphia Eagles
In January: Upgrade the backfield
Philadelphia has gotten by for the last few seasons utilizing a committee approach to their backfield. In 2023, D’Andre Swift took on the bulk of the backfield work (229 carries for 1,049 yards and five touchdowns) with contributions from Jalen Hurts in the red zone (15 rushing touchdowns) and Kenneth Gainwell as a change-of-pace back.
Swift was fine, but the Eagles have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, so upgrading the talent at running back could produce huge results. The Eagles felt similarly, spending big money to bring in Saquon Barkley as their lead back.
Barkley has struggled behind terrible offensive lines the last two seasons, but still posted 542 carries for 2,274 yards and 16 touchdowns with 136 targets, 98 receptions, 618 receiving yards and four additional scores. Philadelphia also used the draft to add more talent, selecting Clemson’s Will Shipley in the fourth round. During his three seasons in college, the rookie had 526 carries for 2,747 yards and 31 rushing touchdowns while adding 85 receptions for 602 yards and two receiving touchdowns. Kenneth Gainwell is also still on the team and adds experienced depth.
The additions of Saquon Barkley and Will Shipley are talent upgrades over D’Andre Swift and Boston Scott. They, along with Gainwell, make up one of the best running back rooms in the NFL in 2024.
Grade: A
San Francisco 49ers
In January: Build up the offensive line
The 49ers have weapons at wide receiver, tight end and running back. They have a quarterback who has proven to be fantastic at getting the ball in the hands of those players. One area that the team needed to address was trying to upgrade the offensive line.
The 49ers’ offensive line has long been Trent Williams at left tackle and a cast of league-average players surrounding him. That hasn’t proven to be a bad thing (especially with the offensive scheme minimizing the need for offensive line talent), but it was the clear area this team could improve.
San Francisco didn’t take any major swings this offseason on upgrading the offensive line but could have discovered an interesting piece that will give them a second above-average option. The team drafted Kansas left tackle Dominick Puni in the third round of the draft to move him to guard. Puni started for two seasons at Kansas at guard and tackle and showed to be a powerful run blocker. He’s looked excellent in the preseason as well as right guard and will be a day one starter.
Is it the highest-profile move we have seen this offseason? Far from it. But it is a move that did upgrade the line and allows the team to maintain flexibility with veteran utility lineman Jon Feliciano.
Grade: B, but an F is the Trent Williams contract situation doesn’t get resolved.
Seattle Seahawks
In January: Build up the offensive line
Seattle knew heading into 2023 that the interior offensive line could be problematic. They also believed that they had discovered two good-to-great tackles in the 2022 NFL Draft in Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas.
By the end of the season, the interior offensive line did wind up being problematic and both Lucas and Cross missed time during their second season with injuries. Cross did show flashes in his second year (67.6 PFF grade) but was ultimately limited to 14 games.
The Seahawks worked hard to shore up their offensive line this offseason and should have a much better unit in 2024. Seattle signed Laken Tomlinson in free agency to be their left guard and drafted Connecticut’s Christian Haynes to compete at right guard with Anthony Bradford. The team also signed Connor Williams deep into training camp, but it will be some time before we see him on the field due to a 2023 ACL tear. Finally, Seattle got one of the best swing tackles in the NFL in George Fant to play right tackle while Lucas continues to recover from his injury woes.
There isn’t enough healthy talent in this group to compete for a top spot in an offensive line ranking, but this is a unit made up of solid veterans and interesting young pieces. They should be better in 2024.
Grade: B (Upgrade to an A if Connor Williams is back sooner than later).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In January: Keep the band together (especially OC Dave Canales)
It was always unrealistic for the Buccaneers to retain Dave Canales after he was credited for the revivals of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. The team will hope there isn’t much dropoff pivoting from Canales to Kentucky offensive coordinator (and McVay tree coach) Liam Coen.
Still, Tampa Bay was facing an offense in 2024 without Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans set to hit free agency. Mayfield resurrected his career in 2023, completing 64.3% of his passes for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. Evans posted his 10th straight season with 1,000+ receiving yards and had his third season with at least 13 touchdowns in the last four years.
Both players were brought back in free agency on multi-year deals, keeping the core of this offense together after a surprise playoff appearance (in a very bad NFC South). Tampa Bay will hope that their established core will be bolstered by additions like rookies Graham Barton (center) and Jalen McMillan (wide receiver) to keep the team atop the division.
Grade: B+
Washington Commanders
In January: Pick the right quarterback of the future
The Commanders were never going to get the top quarterback in this class but had the pick of the litter from the remaining options with the second overall pick. Throughout the offseason, there were rumors tying Washington to Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy. Ultimately, Washington made Daniels, the 2024 Heisman winner, their pick.
Daniels was stellar during his two seasons at LSU but took his game to another level in 2023. The quarterback completed 72.2% of his passes for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns and four interceptions while adding 135 carries for 1,134 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. The rookie will now enter his first season in a Kliff Kingsbury offense that has shown the ability to get production out of dual-threat quarterbacks.
We have gotten glimpses of Daniels throughout the preseason, but it will be truly impossible to judge this decision today. Based on a very limited sample size, he will be just fine (12 of 15 passing for 123 yards and three carries for 16 yards and a touchdown).
Grade: A or B, it depends on how quickly Daniels acclimates to NFL defenses.
