Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2024 fantasy football season. Our Chris Meaney and Daniel Kelley are going to go team-by-team around the league all summer. They’ll pick sleepers, busts and bold predictions for each team. Sometimes they’ll agree! Sometimes they will go completely opposite one another! And that’s fine, because they’ll defend their positions, and you can decide for yourself who to side with. Up today: The Pittsburgh Steelers.
Below, they tackle the team, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2024 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Pittsburgh Steelers
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Meaney: Roman Wilson
Kelley: Darnell Washington
Biggest Bust
Meaney: Russell Wilson
Kelley: Jaylen Warren
Bold Prediction
Meaney: Cordarrelle Patterson Leads PIT RBs in TDs; PIT Has the DST1
Kelley: Cordarrelle Patterson Makes the Pro Bowl
The Explanations
Sleepers
Meaney: Roman Wilson
The Steelers have a history of drafting good wide receivers, and I think they have something special in Roman Wilson. The Michigan product comes with a ton of speed and is a strong route runner. Most importantly, he has a path to be the No. 2 passing option at wide receiver behind George Pickens. Look for Wilson to take over the slot role from Day 1 and at pick 208.6 on average (WR73), that’s interesting to me.
Kelley: Darnell Washington
Pat Freiermuth is going to be the possession receiver at tight end for Pittsburgh, but he seriously lacks big-play upside — in three years in the league, he’s only had two plays of 30-plus yards (in 44 games). Last year’s rookie, Darnell Washington, has that, with six such plays in 28 games in three years on college. The 2023 season was always going to be basically a redshirt season or Washington, but the team could easily unleash him in 2024, with a generally short receiving corps (George Pickens is 6-foot-3; Van Jefferson, Scotty Miller, Quez Watkins and Roman Wilson are all 6-1 or shorter). And with Freiermuth scoring only 4 combined touchdowns the last two years, Washington could easily be the end-zone weapon in Pittsburgh, and for a tight end going essentially undrafted right now, that is a nice weekly fill-in value.
Busts
Meaney: Russell Wilson
Based on volume alone, I don’t think George Pickens or Najee Harris bust. Jaylen Warren should do enough through the air to hold a roster spot in PPR formats, which leaves me with Russell Wilson. The former Bronco is going as QB27 (pick 200) in high stakes leagues at NFC, so he won’t be a bust in fantasy. Instead, he’ll turn out to be a bust on the field, just like he was in his first season with Denver. Wilson lost his job last season, but it wasn’t because he played poorly. It was probably because he played too well and Sean Payton was ready for new blood. I fully expect Wilson to be the Week 1 starter in Pittsburgh even if Justin Fields looks better in camp. However, I believe the Steelers will want to get a look at Fields as well. If they struggle out of the gate, Fields could take over. Arthur Smith had some success running an offense with Marcus Mariota in both Tennessee and Atlanta. I’m not saying it would be the right call, but maybe Smith prefers a running QB in his offense. Nonetheless, this will be a run first offense and Wilson’s lack of weapons makes him an easy fade in superflex leagues.
Kelley: Jaylen Warren
Since 2012, there have been 119 examples of a running back catching more than 50 passes in a season. Exactly zero of those seasons came with either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields on the team (Samaje Perine caught 50 last year, the most for a team with either quarterback). That’s Strike 1 for Jaylen Warren.
The Steelers declined Najee Harris’ fifth-year option this offseason, meaning this is almost certainly his final year on the team. That won’t factor into regular game plans, but any time the team has to decide “Boy, both these backs are winded, who do we put out there?,” there is every encouragement to use the guy who is not tied to their long-term future. That’s Strike 2 for Jaylen Warren.
Bijan Robinson had four fumbles last year. Take out that weird Week 7 game where he was sick-or-whatever-happened, and Robinson averaged 49.7 snaps and 19.9 touch opportunities in games without a fumble, compared to 41.0 and 15.0 in games with one. And remember, fumbles don’t come at the start of the game, so the penalties when he fumbled were harsh. His coach last year, Arthur Smith, is now the OC in Pittsburgh, where both Warren and Harris have 5 career fumbles — Warren on 315 career touches, Harris on 978. Warren’s fumble issues could easily cost him playing time. That’s Strike 3 for Jaylen Warren.
Bold Predictions
Meaney: Cordarrelle Patterson Leads PIT RBs in TDs; PIT Has the DST1
This isn’t so much about Arthur Smith’s love for Patterson as it is about Patterson’s skillset in the return game. Don’t get me wrong — Smith loves him some Patterson, and that was evident last year when he gave him the same number of rushing attempts at the goal line as Bijan Robinson. After all, Patterson scored 20 total touchdowns in three seasons with Smith in Atlanta. The 33-year-old may get a few red zone looks, but he wasn’t signed to take touches away from Harris or Warren; he was brought in to own the new kickoff rules. The former Falcon holds the record for the most kick return touchdowns in NFL history with 9. The hope is that the rule change leads to more excitement, which could lead to more touchdowns, rather than the predictable kick through the end zone. Patterson says he has mixed feelings about the new rules as the Steelers throw every kind of kick at him, but he likes his chances to have success according to Steelers.com. When you consider Pittsburgh has playmakers on the defensive side of the ball as well with T.J. Watt and Patrick Queen, it’s easy to see how they could finish as the best DST in fantasy in 2024.
Kelley: Cordarrelle Patterson Makes the Pro Bowl
The NFL announced its new kickoff rules March 26. At 4:21 p.m. ET that day, the Steelers announced a contract with Cordarrelle Patterson. Yes, he has some value at running back or wide receiver. Yes, he has familiarity with Arthur Smith. But those things were true before the rules announcement. The thing that changed was the kickoff rules, and the team immediately grabbed the best kickoff returner in NFL history. Patterson hasn’t made the Pro Bowl since 2020 and only has one return touchdown since, but with the new situation in place, expect him to get back to the good side in the return game in 2024, and if so, he’ll obviously command major highlights, so that and name value will get him back in the Pro Bowl at age 33. And, as Chris notes above, that bodes very well for the Steelers’ DST.
(And not for nothin’, he won’t just be a return man. He’ll get some time in the backfield as well. So that’s Strike 4 for Jaylen Warren.)
