Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course, they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to breaking out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turned out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer, we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong, and what we can expect from them going forward.
Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans
The world experienced the gut-wrenching second-hand embarrassment of watching Will Levis spend four-ish hours in the green room of the 2023 NFL Draft. Wild pre-draft rumors speculated Levis could go as high as the first overall pick, and it was seen as all but a guarantee he’d be selected in the first round. A slide to the second round saw the Titans trade up and take Levis as their heir-apparent to the aging Ryan Tannehill.
Levis took over as the starting quarterback in Week 8 due to an ankle injury to Tannehill. But thanks to Tannehill’s poor play through the first seven weeks, the move was likely coming regardless. Levis impressed in his first start but was shaky at best the rest of the season. He held the starting job until getting injured late in the season. Levis comes into 2024 as the unquestioned starter.
What Went Wrong
Levis had more starts (nine) than touchdowns thrown (eight) and threw for over 300 yards just once. He failed to throw a touchdown in over half his starts and showed the volatility of a quarterback with a gunslinger mentality who’s yet to master his cannon of an arm.
What Went Right
Levis showed his sky-high upside in his first NFL start, leading the Titans to a victory over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8. He threw for 238 yards and tossed four touchdowns, with three going to DeAndre Hopkins. Levis joined Fran Tarkenton and Marcus Mariota to become just the third quarterback in NFL history to throw four touchdowns in his debut.
Prognosis Entering 2024
Tennessee spent the offseason upgrading the supporting cast around Levis in what amounts to a make-or-break sophomore season. With Treylon Burks yet to live up to his first-round draft capital, the Titans added Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to form a solid trio of wide receivers with DeAndre Hopkins. For the second straight year, Tennessee spent a first-round pick on an offensive lineman, drafting JC Latham to pair with 2023 first-rounder Peter Skoronski. They also brought in Tony Pollard to soften the blow of losing Derrick Henry. With the improvements around Levis and the Titans’ offense expected to shift to a more pass-friendly attack, he’ll have every opportunity to succeed. If he’s unable to prove that he’s nothing more than a big arm, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the new staff move on fairly quickly from Levis.
Dynasty Outlook
I recently included Levis as a buy in my “Dynasty Moves to Make” series, and I still feel that’s the move to make. Not necessarily because I believe in the talent, but because the fantasy community is undervaluing him. Yes, his floor is being benched for Mason Rudolph and shipped out of town as the new regime brings in their own guy. But he’s got the raw talent, youth and improving supporting cast to hit his ceiling. Will he ever be a top-10 fantasy quarterback? Not by a long shot. But he can be a solid QB2 in superflex leagues with some big weeks and be acquired for much less. Don’t spend up for him, but he’s worth taking on at the discount he’s going for.
