Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
This installment of “Dynasty Moves to Make” is a bit buy-heavy, but there is one sell and our very first hold of the series. As a reminder, buying doesn’t mean getting a player for Laviska Shenault and a copy of Lee Carvallo’s Putting Challenge. Selling doesn’t mean you must rid your rosters of said player for 10 cents on the dollar. When players are improperly valued, take advantage.
Below are a few dynasty moves you should want to make now.
Dynasty Moves to Make Now: Buys
Kendre Miller, RB, New Orleans Saints
With Alvin Kamara suspended for the first three games of the 2023 season, third-round rookie running back Kendre Miller out of TCU was declared a league-winner by many the second the Saints drafted him. Unfortunately for Miller, he missed two of the three games Kamara missed because of a hamstring injury. He didn’t produce much throughout the season and missed Weeks 10-17 after spraining his ankle in Week 9. Miller returned for Week 18 and received 13 carries, leading the way for the Saints with 73 rushing yards and his first career touchdown. Although Kamara and Jamaal Williams will return to New Orleans in 2024, neither was particularly effective in 2023. Kamara averaged less than four yards per carry for the second time in his career and will be 29 when the season starts. His value was strictly in the passing game. Williams was a bust, his 1,066-yard, 17-touchdown seasons in 2022 proving to be an outlier (I, for one, am shocked). I wouldn’t pay a premium to acquire Miller, but I’d be willing to part with a second-round pick for him. It’s certainly within the realm of possibility for him to become the lead back in NOLA.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings
Before suffering a devastating knee injury late in the season, T.J. Hockenson had already set career highs in receptions (95) and receiving yards (960). He was one touchdown shy of scoring six touchdowns for the third time in his career. It was recently reported that Hockenson is “ahead of schedule” in rehab, but the Vikings aren’t going to rush him back from tearing his ACL and MCL. He’ll almost certainly not be ready for the start of the season, and it wouldn’t be unexpected for him to miss a significant chunk of 2024. Kirk Cousins left for Atlanta, and Minnesota’s 10th overall pick, J.J. McCarthy, is one of the most divisive quarterback prospects in recent memory. All the uncertainty surrounding him could open the door for a buying opportunity from a disheartened fantasy manager. Hockenson turns just 27 in July and has proven to be an elite fantasy tight end, averaging 12 or more PPR points per game in the past three seasons (14.6 last year). If you’re unable to pry him away from his fantasy manager now, there could be an opportunity early in the season if immediate production is needed. By that point, Sam Darnold will surely be on the bench.
Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans
Speaking of divisive quarterback prospects, Will Levis heads into his sophomore season as the unquestioned starter in Tennessee. Levis had a rocky top (I’m so sorry) rookie season, throwing four touchdowns in his Week 8 NFL debut, only to throw four total touchdowns the rest of the season. But The Titans appear content with Levis as their starter and focused the offseason on improving the offense around him. They signed wide receivers Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, spent a first-round pick on offensive lineman JC Latham and signed O-line guru Bill Callahan away from Cleveland. The offense will shift from the Derrick Henry-led run-first offense of old to a more balanced, if not pass-happy, attack. The fantasy community still seems not to want anything to do with Levis. Maybe it is due to the mayo he puts in his coffee or eating bananas with the whole peel. But he can be had for way cheaper than he should for a quarterback with his youth, improving offense and upside.
Dynasty Moves to Make Now: Sells
Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
I won’t rehash all my points when discussing wide receivers age 30 and older in my first article in this series, but I will discuss the one most relevant to Davante Adams. Since 2020, just six wide receivers aged 31 or older have played at least 10 games and averaged 12 or more PPR fantasy points per game. Adams was one of those six last season, with his fourth straight 100-catch, 1,000-yard season while turning 31 on Christmas Eve. There are outliers to every stat and metric, and Adams has proven to be one in his career. Expecting that to continue is a fool’s errand. Interim-turned-full-time head coach Antonio Pierce loves to run the ball; the Raiders averaged almost 26 rush attempts per game after he took over Week 9 (up from the 22.5 Weeks 1-8). The Raiders brought in Gardner Minshew to compete with Aidan O’Connell as the starting quarterback, neither of which instill confidence of being able to support Adams as an elite fantasy wide receiver. If someone in your league values him as even a borderline WR1, send Adams packing. I’d happily deal him straight up for a player in the Jaxon Smith-Njigba/Tee Higgins/Jordan Addison range.
Dynasty Moves to Make Now: Holds
Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
I’ve thought about Puka Nacua a lot this offseason, not because of his dreamy hair or balling out at the NBA All-Star Celebrity Game. But what do I do with him on my dynasty rosters? I have Puka everywhere. While I liked him as a prospect, I certainly had zero clue (or expectation) that he’d have the most outstanding rookie wide receiver season of all time. He’s a 23-year-old, locked and loaded WR1 for the long haul, right? Well, there is a lot more uncertainty surrounding him than most want to admit. What does the team surrounding him look like over the next few years? Matthew Stafford is 36 and hasn’t been the picture of perfect health over the past few seasons. How many seasons does he have left, productive ones at that? Puka produced with and without Cooper Kupp on the field, but he doesn’t profile as a dominant alpha wide receiver. Sean McVay has been rumored to retire for what seems like his entire 30s.
His value will never be higher than it is right now. Is selling high the right move? While the return on trading what was a third- or fourth-round rookie pick would be quite the haul, Nacua is a hold in my book. Don’t get me wrong, if I could turn Puka into Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb or Garrett Wilson, I make that move. But the chances of that happening are slim to none. You won the lottery with him. You got a WR1 for minimal to no investment; reap the reward.
