Welcome back to FTN Fantasy’s NBA Power Rankings!
The NBA Cup delivered plenty of excitement last week, with the quarterfinals and semifinals providing dramatic matchups across the league. In the East, the Knicks, favored heading into the quarterfinals, were upset by the Hawks at Madison Square Garden. Meanwhile, the Bucks powered through the Magic and then the Hawks to secure their spot in the finals. In the West, the Thunder lived up to their billing as favorites, defeating the Mavericks at home before dispatching the Rockets in Las Vegas on Saturday night
Our model projects the Thunder as 4.5-point favorites over the Bucks in what promises to be an exciting matchup. This matchup pits Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, ranked as the second-best player in our model, against Giannis Antetokounmpo, who comes in at fifth. It’s an exciting battle of youth versus experience with the NBA Cup, including $500,000 per player, on the line.
With the Cup going on, most teams played only one or two games last week, leading to minimal movement in our rankings. One notable exception? The Phoenix Suns, who jumped significantly thanks to Kevin Durant’s return from injury. Even at age 36, Durant remains one of the league’s most impactful players. His presence immediately elevated the Suns’ performance and boosted their standing in our model, giving them an outside shot at title contention this season.
Every Monday, we bring you an up-to-the-minute snapshot of the league with our exclusive power rankings, powered by the FTN NBA Betting Model. These rankings adjust for recent results, injuries and news, giving you a dynamic view of the NBA’s shifting landscape. We also track which teams are trending up – and which are trending down.
But this isn’t just about rankings – it’s about giving you the edge. Whether you’re betting on the NBA or simply keeping tabs on your favorite team’s performance, our rankings provide key insights to help you make smarter decisions. Curious to see how we evaluate a specific matchup? Our NBA Betting Model is constantly updated with the latest data, and we highlight the best value picks in our NBA Bet Tracker.
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Key Takeaways
The Thunder Dominate En Route to the Cup Finals
No team impressed me more this week than the Oklahoma City Thunder. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander showcased his superstar credentials in the NBA Cup quarterfinals, dropping 39 points in a decisive victory over the Mavericks. In the semifinals, the Thunder pulled away from the Rockets after a tight first half in Las Vegas, earning a comfortable win and a trip to the finals.
Right now, Oklahoma City stands alone in the Western Conference, with only Dallas coming within a point of value in our model. What’s more remarkable? They’re doing this without arguably their second-best player, Chet Holmgren. As they prepare to face the Bucks in the NBA Cup Final, the Thunder look like the only team that can compete with the Celtics for a title.
The Bucks are Just Fine
Remember the early-season panic in Milwaukee? The Bucks started 2-8, Giannis Antetokounmpo trade rumors swirled, and some even speculated about head coach Doc Rivers’ future. Fast forward to now: Milwaukee is 14-11 and riding high after reaching the NBA Cup Finals.
The difference? Giannis and Damian Lillard have started to click, evolving into the dominant duo the team envisioned. While our model has them as 4.5-point underdogs to the Thunder in the final, Bucks fans should feel confident about their trajectory. This team is starting to look like a contender again.
What Should We Make of the Hawks?
Atlanta delivered one of the week’s most surprising results, knocking off the Knicks at Madison Square Garden to advance to the NBA Cup semifinals. Given that the Knicks rank as the fifth-best team in our model, this win shouldn’t go unnoticed. However, their loss to the Bucks in Las Vegas and their overall body of work keep the Hawks grounded in reality – they rank just 18th in our model, up only three spots from their preseason ranking.
Trae Young had a strong week, but his overall numbers this season remain below expectations. The Hawks have shown flashes of potential, but consistency continues to elude them, both on the court and in the rankings.
The Rockets Are Not Title Contenders Yet
At 17-9, the Rockets have clearly moved past the rebuilding phase, but Saturday’s loss to the Thunder in the NBA Cup semifinals exposed their limitations. Defensively, they’ve made huge strides under Head Coach Ime Udoka, but their offense remains average – a glaring weakness for a team with playoff aspirations. While the Rockets may not be ready to compete for a title this season, their abundance of young talent keeps the future bright. If Houston chooses to accelerate its timeline by trading for a superstar, it could quickly change the narrative. For now, the Rockets are a dangerous team, but not one built to go the distance in the playoffs.
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