Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It’s all come down to this. There’s one week remaining in the fantasy football regular season. And if you’re anything like most fantasy football managers, you’re probably playing for a playoff spot.
Must. Win. Game.
Sure, you could already be in or, heck, even have a bye. If that applies to you, I do appreciate you taking the time to read this column. But most of us have to win to get it.
The pressure of having to win can make us do funny things in fantasy football. We stare at our lineups all week long on laptop screens or mobile phones. We sift through every possible scenario for our players in a desperate attempt to squeeze every single point we can out of the lineup. We scour the waiver wire to find that hidden gem. We think, and we think, and we think some more.
But all that thinking is doing you more harm than good. So often, we create narratives in our heads about what could happen in a perfect scenario. An unlikely series of events that becomes more believable each time we repeat it to ourselves. All the while, we forget our main objective.
Believe it or not, our main objective isn’t to win. What?!? Yes, it’s true. This isn’t a game of one-on-one basketball where we can defend our opponent. We can’t really do anything to control our opponent’s outcome. Instead, we only need to focus on our own lineup where our main objective is to score as many points as possible. And we do so by starting the players who are most likely to score the most points. These aren’t the players with the most upside and they certainly aren’t based on who our opponent is or isn’t starting.
We give ourselves the best chance of winning by maximizing our own lineups and we accomplish that by making smart start/sit decisions without overthinking and/or focusing on details that don’t matter. In other words, keep it simple stupid.
Each week in The Report, I’m going to go through every game and give you the information you need to make the most informed decisions possible for your fantasy football rosters. I’ll provide some key about matchups, trends and anything else we need to know about each contest.
Note: The Report will be updated as I finish writing up each game, so be sure to check back throughout the end of the week. Games will be periodically added until Friday afternoons.
Green Bay @ Detroit
Jordan Love became the first Packers quarterback since Brett Favre in 2001 to throw for 20-plus touchdowns and 10-plus interceptions in his first 10 games of a season. While that stat highlights the bumpy ride it’s been with Love this season, he has managed to stabilize over this last two games with four passing scores and no picks. Of course, this isn’t an easy matchup. The Lions enter the week as the No. 2 unit in defensive DVOA. Still, a projected high-scoring affair has Love in the top-12 quarterbacks.
He’ll be without Romeo Doubs again in this one, as Doubs remains in concussion protocol. That means another week with Dontayvion Wicks as one of the starting three wideouts. While Wicks is tempting, he managed just four catches for 30 yards last week. He’s really only a desperation flex play. Jayden Reed remains the top option as a WR2, and Christian Watson remains a boom-or-bust WR3 play.
Josh Jacobs has posted five straight games with 100-plus scrimmage yards. That’s the longest such streak by a Packers player since Eddie Lacy in 2014. After a somewhat sluggish start to the season, Jacobs has moved into the top 10 running backs in fantasy scoring. His worst finish over the last eight weeks was RB23, and he has five top-five fantasy finishes over that span.
The Lions offense continues to be predicated on the run. David Montgomery is coming off a big Week 13, posting 21 carries for 88 rushing yards and adding three receptions for 36 yards. It was his 22nd career game with 100-plus scrimmage yards. He and Jahmyr Gibbs made history as the first NFL duo with 10-plus rushing touchdowns each in consecutive seasons.
Gibbs has joined elite company in Lions history, becoming just the third player to record 10-plus rushing touchdowns in each of his first two seasons. The other two: Billy Sims and Barry Sanders. Gibb’s offers more bang for your buck from a ceiling standpoint, but there’s nothing wrong with Montgomery’s massive floor.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is just one receiving touchdown away from becoming the third player in Lions history to post back-to-back seasons with 10-plus receiving touchdowns. The only other players to do so are Lions legends Herman Moore and Calvin Johnson. St. Brown hasn’t scored in his last two games, but he remains an elite fantasy option.
As for his quarterback, it’s been a strange fantasy season for Jared Goff. There’s no denying his strong play on the football field, but that hasn’t always translated to great fantasy performances. Goff has just one top 10 fantasy finish over his last six games. However, given the potential high score in this contest, he can be considered a fringe QB1 option.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Excepteur sint occaecat cupidatat non proident, sunt in culpa qui officia deserunt mollit anim id est laborum. "Sed ut perspiciatis unde omnis iste natus error sit voluptatem accusantium doloremque laudantium, totam rem aperiam, eaque ipsa quae ab illo inventore veritatis et quasi architecto beatae vitae dicta sunt explicabo. Nemo enim ipsam voluptatem quia voluptas sit aspernatur aut odit aut fugit, sed quia consequuntur magni dolores eos qui ratione voluptatem sequi nesciunt. Neque porro quisquam est, qui dolorem ipsum quia dolor sit amet, consectetur, adipisci velit, sed quia non numquam eius modi tempora incidunt ut labore et dolore magnam aliquam quaerat voluptatem.
