2024 College Basketball Power Rankings (Dec. 16)
Mike Randle
Well, we’ve made it to another Grand Slam. After a long two month clay court season, we’ve reached the conclusion in Paris for the French Open. Defending Champion Rafael Nadal will unfortunately miss his first French Open since 2004. Additionally absent on the men’s side includes Matteo Berrettini, Nick Kyrgios, Andy Murray, and 2023 semifinalist Marin Cilic. On the women’s side, Simona Halep, Paula Badosa, Amanda Anisimova, Emma Raducanu, and Ajla Tomljanovic will all miss the event. Iga Swiatek will go for her third Roland Garros title, which would give her the fourth most at Roland Garros in the Open Era. So, let’s dive straight into today’s featured play.
Casper Ruud Moneyline
(-102, 1.02 units, FanDuel)
Today our focus shifts to the second men’s semifinal, which will pin a pair of 2022 semifinalists going head-to-head in Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev. Ruud, last years finalist who lost to Rafael Nadal in straight sets, will look to make his second consecutive French Open final, as well as his third Grand Slam final in the last four played over the course of the calendar year. On the other end, Alexander Zverev is enjoying his best run at any event since his gruesome ankle injury, suffered at this very event, in this very same round one year ago.
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Neither player entered the French Open in particularly good form, but fortunate draws have allowed them to respectively play their way into form. Last season, many believed it was Zverev, not Nadal, who was the favorite amongst the final four to win the tournament, and given how the first two sets played out in his semifinal against Nadal prior to the injury, that belief certainly had some legs to it. These two have met three times previous, with Zverev maintaining a 2-1 lead in the head-to-head. Looking over those three meetings, they each took place on a hardcourt, and Zverev’s two wins came in Cincinnati and Paris-Bercy, both of which have slick surfaces, putting them amongst the quickest hardcourts in the world. Ruud’s win came in Miami in 2022, a slow, gritty hardcourt, which almost played like a pseudo clay court. Given Zverev’s serve and the pace he can generate off the ground, it’s no surprise to see him take the two meetings on quicker surfaces, whereas Ruud, who many believe is a clay court specialist (he’s proven them otherwise), took the meeting on the slower surface.
I love Ruud’s ability to defend the baseline, thus making it a little more difficult for Zverev to hit through him, and given the slower, heavy clay court conditions in Paris, it’s already a more difficult task. Much like my concern with Holger Rune the other day, I have concerns over Zverev’s legs, the longer this match plays out. While Zverev has tallied a pair of four set wins at this tournament, there were some signs of fatigue in the latter stages against Tiafoe, a match which went just under four hours. Ruud is easily the best shot maker Zverev will have seen at this tournament, and it’s certainly worth noting, Zverev is just 1-6 versus Top 20 opponents this season (0-6 prior to the win over Tiafoe). While Casper Ruud’s draw through the third round was relatively easy, he managed to avenge his loss in Geneva to Nicoals Jarry in the fourth round, then handled a fatigued Holger Rune without much trouble in the quarterfinals. Ruud’s ability to get serves back into the court, extend rallies, and show patience and rally tolerance are all keys to this matchup, and as the match progresses, with points becoming more physical, Zverev is going to begin to press for quicker points, playing with smaller margins, which will lead to more errors. The German’s second serve is also a key in this matchup, as we know his long history of double fault woes, generally coming in bunches. While he’s tempered the issue over the last couple seasons, he is averaging 7.2 per match throughout the tournament, and just under 9 per match over the last three rounds. The more second serves Casper Ruud sees, with the pressure he can apply, the more double faults we’ll see out of Zverev, whether it’s because he lacks acceleration on his second serve, or he chooses to play a big second serve, which comes with inherently more risk. I have Ruud as a favorite in this matchup, so at -102, I have to take the Norwegian to defend his finalist points and secure a spot in his second consecutive French Open final.
