NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Well, we’ve made it to another Grand Slam. After a long two month clay court season, we’ve reached the conclusion in Paris for the French Open. Defending Champion Rafael Nadal will unfortunately miss his first French Open since 2004. Additionally absent on the men’s side includes Matteo Berrettini, Nick Kyrgios, Andy Murray, and 2023 semifinalist Marin Cilic. On the women’s side, Simona Halep, Paula Badosa, Amanda Anisimova, Emma Raducanu, and Ajla Tomljanovic will all miss the event. Iga Swiatek will go for her third Roland Garros title, which would give her the fourth most at Roland Garros in the Open Era. So, let’s dive straight into today’s featured play.
Casper Ruud Moneyline
( -130, 1.3 units , DraftKings)
Yesterday did not go as planned, as it was one way traffic for the most part for Carlos Alcaraz, though Tsitsipas did bring the third set to a tiebreak, so the opportunity was there! Today, we’ll once again focus on the night session contest between Casper Ruud and Holger Rune, a rematch from last season’s quarterfinal, which ended in a bit of drama at the net, with Ruud seemingly disgusted with some of the antics from the teenager. These two met a few weeks ago in Rome, and it was Rune who took that meeting, picking up his first win in this rivalry.
Today, in the best of five format, I’m siding with Casper Ruud. While I have not been a fan of Ruud’s form throughout this season, he’s a winner, and he has the second week Slam experience, unlike his counterpart. More importantly, there were some very concerning signs regarding Holger Rune’s fitness in his previous match, as he seemed to be out of gas in the fourth set, through the remainder of the match, and that is frightening, considering Rune was given a walkover in the second round, which means he really hadn’t spent a ton of time on court through three rounds (just under five hours to be precise). Somehow, some way, he was able to survive Cerundolo to reach this stage. In what should be another physical contest, given the styles the two bring to the table, I cannot trust Holger Rune’s body to hold up in this one.
While he’ll have the benefit of playing the night session, sunset is not until just before 10 PM local time, so they’ll be playing close to two hours under the sun. While cramping has been a long standing issue for Rune as well, I’m mostly concerned about the physicality of this matchup and how his legs hold up after finishing as heavy as they did 48 hours prior. This is only Rune’s second Grand Slam level quarterfinal, and he was very much fatigued last year when the two met, in addition to dealing with cramping and other physical ailments in two of his previous three Round of 16’s at Slam level. In the second week of Grand Slams, fitness is every bit as important, if not more important than the level of talent. In giving Ruud a significant edge in fitness, unless Rune finds a way to win this one in straight sets, I see no path to him collecting a win here. If he does win in straight sets, I’ll tip my cap to him. With all that said, I will take Casper Ruud on the moneyline at -130 here.
