Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2024 fantasy football season. Our Chris Meaney and Daniel Kelley are going to go team-by-team around the league all summer. They’ll pick sleepers, busts and bold predictions for each team. Sometimes they’ll agree! Sometimes they will go completely opposite one another! And that’s fine, because they’ll defend their positions, and you can decide for yourself who to side with. Up today: The Miami Dolphins.
Below, they tackle the team, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2024 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Miami Dolphins
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Meaney: Raheem Mostert
Kelley: Jaylen Wright
Biggest Bust
Meaney: De’Von Achane
Kelley: Tyreek Hill
Bold Prediction
Meaney: 2024 Is Tua Tagovailoa’s Final Season in Miami
Kelley: Jonnu Smith Breaks the TE Rushing TD Record
The Explanations
Sleepers
Meaney: Raheem Mostert
A sleeper to me is someone who will outperform his ADP, and while the price tag for Mostert is much cheaper this season than last year, he’s still undervalued. At pick 95 on average and RB28 off the board, Mostert is a great target in the seventh and eighth round for the Hero RB drafters. Mostert won’t lead the league in rushing touchdowns again (18 last year and 21 total), but he’ll still be the lead back in Miami. The Dolphins wouldn’t have extended him to a two-year contract if they didn’t plan on using him. Keep in mind, Mike McDaniels had Mostert in San Francisco and brought him over to Miami immediately after taking over as the head coach. Mostert’s 44 red-zone rushing attempts ranked sixth last season. Those touches are very valuable.
Kelley: Jaylen Wright
The Dolphins put up 579.7 PPR points out of the backfield last year. That was the best of any team in 2023 by more than 50 points (the 49ers were second at 524.1), and in the last five years, only the 2019 Chargers have come within 50 of that total. In other words, there’s room for multiple running backs to produce in this backfield. Sure, Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane (in whatever order) are going to get the first crack. But that’s (a) a 32-year-old with an extensive injury history and (b) a certified itty-bitty who missed time to injury three times last year, his only one in the league. But the Dolphins have a type, and they made a point to use some of their limited draft stock (only one pick in each of the first two rounds, none in the third) to grab the blazing-fast Wright. He’s not a fantasy starter from Week 1 (barring injury), but he’ll have at least a stretch of fantasy relevance in 2024, and that’ll turn into production in this offense.
Busts
Meaney: De’Von Achane
You had to see this coming after reading about Mostert. Achane is going as RB7 and at pick 25.2 on average over at Underdog. I understand drafters are shooting for upside in best ball formats, but he’s still getting drafted as RB8 in high stakes. Achane ahead of Kyren Williams, Derrick Henry, Travis Etienne and Josh Jacobs just feels wrong. McDaniel will use Mostert, Achane and rookie Jaylen Wright, so why are we taking Achane so early? It’s because over a three-week span, Achane racked up 518 yards and seven touchdowns on 45 touches. Overall, Achane finished with 800 rushing yards on 103 carries (7.8 YPC). He scored eight rushing touchdowns and 11 total thanks to 27 receptions. He did that in parts of 11 games. The ceiling is sky high, but there’s a ton of risk here at pick 20 on average at NFFC. The sophomore running back suffered shoulder and knee injuries at different times last season, and he missed time in 2022 due to a foot injury. Injuries are hard to predict, but I wonder how durable he’ll be, and I bet Miami has the same concerns.
Kelley: Tyreek Hill
By just about any measure, Tyreek Hill had his best season in 2023. He set career highs in yards (1,799), yards per route run (a ridiculous 3.8) and PFF grade (93.7) and tied his highs in targets (167) and receptions (119). He scored 13 touchdowns, second most in his career after 2020’s 17. But where he dropped off, and where I start to get worried, is in his snap count. He missed four games to injury in 2019 — take that year out, and his total snaps played have dropped every year since 2018 (905 to 901 to 866 to 799 to 695). Part of that is injuries, and part of that (the part that helped him to that ridiculous 3.8 YPRR) is his team only throwing him out there when he’s going to be the one to do the work. As long as a player can be the most efficient receiver ever, that’s just fine. But Hill is 30 now, and his injury history isn’t going to get shorter. I’m still drafting Hill as a WR1 of course, but I would bet the back half of the top-10 over the front half.
Bold Predictions
Meaney: 2024 Is Tua Tagovailoa’s Final Season in Miami
Miami will be left with a tough decision after this season as Tua Tagovailoa enters the final year of his deal. After seeing Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff get $55M and $53M per season, it’s hard to imagine Tua’s camp not asking for that kind of money. From a fantasy perspective, he’s an easy fade. The Dolphins QB ranked 20th in fantasy points per game last season. He doesn’t come with a rushing floor (74 rushing yards last season, 70 in 2022), which is why he was held under 13 fantasy points in seven games. On top of that, he had fewer yards per game, touchdowns, more interceptions and a 66% completion rate on the road compared to a 71% mark at home. He’s yet to show fantasy managers or the Dolphins front office that he can get it done away from Miami or in high-pressure situations. For example, he’s 0-5 with a sub 60% completion rate when temperatures are 45 or below. Tua has to go to Green Bay in Week 13, he’s in Cleveland in Week 17 and plays the Jets on the road in Week 18. Those games, mixed in with another against the Jets, Texans and 49ers in the final couple weeks of the season, will be the reason Miami moves on from Tua.
Kelley: Jonnu Smith Breaks the TE Rushing TD Record
So we’re slicing Taysom Hill shenanigans off the books here, because he’s just a unique entity. Without that, the single-season rushing TD record for the tight end position is Jackie Smith’s 3 in 1968, so that’s the number we’re shooting for here (and it would be fun if “J. Smith” ousts “J. Smith”). Smith has displayed rushing ability in the past — he has the most and second-most (again, Taysom Hill excluded) rushing yards in a season for a tight end in the last decade. The Dolphins pounced on Smith even before the new league year opened, signing him after the Falcons let him go and then proceeding to do precisely nothing at the TE position the rest of the offseason. That makes me think they had a plan in place, they don’t throw the ball to tight ends (127 total TE targets in two years combined under Mike McDaniel), and the unique thing in Smith’s skillset is his rushing ability. He’ll get 4-5 rush TDs in 2024 and confuse just everyone.
